The scale is huge. It seems like clean H2 will be a big bet on par with EV and 5G back 15 years ago and PV 20 years ago.
Climate Change and Renewable Energy News and Discussion
- Thread starter FairAndUnbiased
- Start date
Jan to April electricity generation figures are out. Solar continues to explode in growth while Wind continues to show the lowest costs and 2x the utilization of solar
The pace of solar installation is three times last year. It would be another remarkable year for China's renewable energy and China should achieve peak carbon emission much sooner than project.
The country installed almost three times the volume of solar capacity between January and the end of April than in the same period in 2022, and is on track to add more panels this year than the entire total in the US.
The country installed almost three times the volume of solar capacity between January and the end of April than in the same period in 2022, and is on track to add more panels this year than the entire total in the US.
it's a waste to quote Bloomberg articles. They just had to sneak in a comment about Wind & transportation not keeping up with 0-carbon goals, even though they are going to be all NEVs before 2030.
I also don't get where they came up with the idea China needs to get to 5300 GW of solar by 2030. They have 2649GW in total right now. If they get to 5300 GW of solar by 2030, they basically wouldn't even need anything else
CNOOC has their first offshore deep water wind turbine to power their drilling platform
interesting commentary here on what's needed to keep platform operational through the intermittent attributes of wind power. You need an intelligent power management system to use wind power when available and then gas power when it's not available.
More from Mingyang on their renewable products
A really solid portfolio of hydrogen related stuff in there
you can see the product they have at hand here with hydrogen production from onshore, offshore wind power, wind/solar producing ammonia, hydrogen transport trucks, hydrogen production station and integrated industrial zone, presumably using green hydrogen related products produced for wind/solar power.
A lot of this smart management is just to increase efficiency of the projects by integrating everything to have fewer steps and to somehow capture more power from renewable sources
interesting commentary here on what's needed to keep platform operational through the intermittent attributes of wind power. You need an intelligent power management system to use wind power when available and then gas power when it's not available.
More from Mingyang on their renewable products
A really solid portfolio of hydrogen related stuff in there
so it already started its first signature deep ocean project that combined offshore wind with marine range and hydrogen production
and it has a project in inner mongolia for 20k ton of green ammonia a year with 100 MW of wind power, 8 1000NM3/h electrolysis and 5 2000m3 hydrogen storage system + 15MW/15MWh ESS. This is what's necessary to just generate 20k of green ammonia
they also have a 50k t green ammonia project with another company that's worth 2B RMB. This project can solve the problem of hydrogen storage and transportation
you can see the product they have at hand here with hydrogen production from onshore, offshore wind power, wind/solar producing ammonia, hydrogen transport trucks, hydrogen production station and integrated industrial zone, presumably using green hydrogen related products produced for wind/solar power.
A lot of this smart management is just to increase efficiency of the projects by integrating everything to have fewer steps and to somehow capture more power from renewable sources
I did my own calculation of solar and wind expansion based on the current rate of expansion and there just isn't a lot of need for thermal power by end of 2030 at the current growth project. It would be crazy for them to get to 5300 GW of solar by 2030. I have it worked out to 4000GW, which I think is still quite a lot. I don't understand how they can come to the idea that wind is behind target
Actually I think now that's quite unreasonable. I added a more plausible but still aggressive deployment scenario
In this case, I think we are going to get a scenario where by 2035, China will only have marginal thermal capacity. The long term implication is that China will be a major energy super power/exporter, but it will come from exporting excessive capacity in the form of green hydrogen
Last edited:
Is production of solar panels really gonna increase by 6 times already by 2030?? And wind by nearly 7 times?
Also, even a basically unrealistic conservative of just adding 100GW of wind from 2024-2030 and 200GW of solar in the same time, still gives: ~1125GW wind and ~1900GW solar lol.
Which gives 450GW and 285GW in effective with your 40% and 15% estimations (will wind really rise to 40% though? it's not only offshore that will be added).
yeah, so I think my first table was quite unreasonable and came up with the second. I think that one is achievable based on the expansion we have seen. I have wind utilization set to 35% in both tables. 40% is for the overall utilization in 2022 across all energy sources.
Yea that second table of yours seems a bit more 'reasonable' than the first one you posted.
Although it's still a 5x expansion in wind production and 4x expansion in solar over ~7-8 years, but I don't have a good knowledge of how prior expansion happened, nor whether or not current production (60 and 150) can increase by that much, so really can't say much, besides that it's quite the big expansion, but could very well be feasible, since it's China we're talking about.
Just to put things into perspective.
Longi says by end of this year, it expects to have 150GW of solar panel capacity. Now of course, it won't necessarily produce that much in 2024. Nor is all that capacity necessarily going to domestic installations. Also, it would require the state power players to take on ever large projects, but I also doubt the world's largest PV company is adding capacity without certain level of confidence that the demand is there. I think Jinko has similar level of expansion.
On solar cell alone, Longi is going from 50GW to 110GW this year.
On the wind front, I will use Mingyang as an example since I know them the best. This year, it estimates 10GW of onshore and 4GW of offshore, which is a big jump over last year, but it's going to add probably 20GW of backlog
use this xueqiue blog
So, we are expecting bids in China for 110GW of wind power this year. So I don't really think my second wind projections are that off