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tphuang

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Here's a study on the effects a massive amount of solar panels could have on the Gobi desert. In conclusion, it would lower evaporation and wind speed, helping to reduce and even reverse desertification. But long term climate impacts for this are unknown. China should start covering as much of their deserts in solar panels and wind turbines in their ongoing efforts to fight desertification.

If efforts are successful in altering the climate of China's part of the Gobi desert, I wonder if Mongolia will ask China for help in also covering their portion of the Gobi desert in solar panels. It could mean an end to the sandstorms that plague parts of Northen China. There's also the deserts in the northwest of China that can also benefit from this. China is probably the only country with the manufacturing power, money, market and policatal will to engage in such a massive megaproject.

And with how quickly China is building solar/wind farms in deserts, we could see the climate effects soon, probably in my lifetime.
yes, but the greatest rationale for covering Gobi and other desert with solar panel is energy dependence. WCF said you can power every home in China with even 1% of China's desert area covered with solar panel. I find that claim dubious. But yes, if they can cover like 20% of Gobi desert with solar panel, it would be huge. China wouldn't even need coal when that happens.
 

tacoburger

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yes, but the greatest rationale for covering Gobi and other desert with solar panel is energy dependence. WCF said you can power every home in China with even 1% of China's desert area covered with solar panel. I find that claim dubious. But yes, if they can cover like 20% of Gobi desert with solar panel, it would be huge. China wouldn't even need coal when that happens.
They would need massive amounts of energy storage for it to be a reliable power source, at 20% of the Gobi desert that's dozens of terawatts but only during the day, that's a massive amount of energy being wasted and you would still need baseload power during the night. The same issue that's keeping renewables from utterly taking over right now. But on a much larger scale, good luck constructing terawatt hours worth of energy storage, you would need dozens of 3 gorges dam scale hydro battery storages for it, or finding the demand for so much energy use.

So the utilization rate will be low and thus not economical. Going by pure economics, only a tiny portion of the deserts would be covered, since that alone would provide more energy that China will ever need, not to mention other sources of renewables like rooftop solar in cities, wind/offshore wind, nuclear etc will still be at play, provide terawatts of power and be more economical, so you would only see a tiny portion of the desert get covered by solar. 1% of the gobi already gives you 2 terawatts peak, enough to meet most of China's peak consumption but probably not enough to change the climate of the region.

But even if the utilization rate are less than 1% and a massive waste of energy/money from a pure energy/return on investment point of view, it would still be worth it for the anti-desertification effects. Hell, for the anti-desertification effects, the solar panels could be cardboard and it still be worth it. So appealing to the anti-desertification effects would probably be the main reason for covering most of the desert in solar/wind, since the economics won't work once you get more than a few terawatts in.
 

FairAndUnbiased

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They would need massive amounts of energy storage for it to be a reliable power source, at 20% of the Gobi desert that's dozens of terawatts but only during the day, that's a massive amount of energy being wasted and you would still need baseload power during the night. The same issue that's keeping renewables from utterly taking over right now. But on a much larger scale, good luck constructing terawatt hours worth of energy storage, you would need dozens of 3 gorges dam scale hydro battery storages for it, or finding the demand for so much energy use.

So the utilization rate will be low and thus not economical. Going by pure economics, only a tiny portion of the deserts would be covered, since that alone would provide more energy that China will ever need, not to mention other sources of renewables like rooftop solar in cities, wind/offshore wind, nuclear etc will still be at play, provide terawatts of power and be more economical, so you would only see a tiny portion of the desert get covered by solar. 1% of the gobi already gives you 2 terawatts peak, enough to meet most of China's peak consumption but probably not enough to change the climate of the region.

But even if the utilization rate are less than 1% and a massive waste of energy/money from a pure energy/return on investment point of view, it would still be worth it for the anti-desertification effects. Hell, for the anti-desertification effects, the solar panels could be cardboard and it still be worth it. So appealing to the anti-desertification effects would probably be the main reason for covering most of the desert in solar/wind, since the economics won't work once you get more than a few terawatts in.
using for chemical production and recycling with battery buffer (not total storage) is a good strategy.

any electrochemical process is extremely electricity expensive with plants open during the day.

examples: H2, O2, Cl2, Li, Na, Al, Cu. the energy intensiveness of electrochemical production for Al and Li in particular makes it worth it to have dedicated solar plants for them.
 

tphuang

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They would need massive amounts of energy storage for it to be a reliable power source, at 20% of the Gobi desert that's dozens of terawatts but only during the day, that's a massive amount of energy being wasted and you would still need baseload power during the night. The same issue that's keeping renewables from utterly taking over right now. But on a much larger scale, good luck constructing terawatt hours worth of energy storage, you would need dozens of 3 gorges dam scale hydro battery storages for it, or finding the demand for so much energy use.

So the utilization rate will be low and thus not economical. Going by pure economics, only a tiny portion of the deserts would be covered, since that alone would provide more energy that China will ever need, not to mention other sources of renewables like rooftop solar in cities, wind/offshore wind, nuclear etc will still be at play, provide terawatts of power and be more economical, so you would only see a tiny portion of the desert get covered by solar. 1% of the gobi already gives you 2 terawatts peak, enough to meet most of China's peak consumption but probably not enough to change the climate of the region.

But even if the utilization rate are less than 1% and a massive waste of energy/money from a pure energy/return on investment point of view, it would still be worth it for the anti-desertification effects. Hell, for the anti-desertification effects, the solar panels could be cardboard and it still be worth it. So appealing to the anti-desertification effects would probably be the main reason for covering most of the desert in solar/wind, since the economics won't work once you get more than a few terawatts in.
it's like you haven't read any of my stuff on green hydrogen/ammonia/methanol production

We are probably some time away from when it's really economical to produce & transport green H2 though
 

tacoburger

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using for chemical production and recycling with battery buffer (not total storage) is a good strategy.

any electrochemical process is extremely electricity expensive with plants open during the day.

examples: H2, O2, Cl2, Li, Na, Al, Cu. the energy intensiveness of electrochemical production for Al and Li in particular makes it worth it to have dedicated solar plants for them.
it's like you haven't read any of my stuff on green hydrogen/ammonia/methanol production

We are probably some time away from when it's really economical to produce & transport green H2 though
The issue as always is economics. Current economical models means that variance and unpredictable supply chain means more expensive cost of operation. Peaker gas plants are way more expensive because they only run once in a while to cover for renewable shortfalls. If you build your factories to run on excess solar, there's going to be days where you can't operate because of rain/snowfall/sandstorm, not to mention winter. This is not a deal breaker but means that it's going to drive up costs.

The other issue is scaling up. This is terawatts of energy we're talking about here. Making and installing the solar panels/wind turbines it is one thing, actually making the factories that can use those terawatts is another. China consumes 2.5 terawatts peak, that's all of China, I can't imagine the number of factories needed to fully make use of terawatts of extra solar, or the time needed to build them. Not to mention that you still need the raw materials, you might have cheap electricity but you still need the raw ore to refine Al, water to make H2 etc. That and the labour force to man the massive amount of factories.

3rd issue is demand. We are talking terawatts of excess energy here, even if you have the factories and the raw materials to make full use of it and are churning out billions of tons of H2, hydrocarbons, aluminium etc etc, you might not have the demand for it to be economically viable, no matter how cheap it is.

Like I said, rooftop solar+wind/offshore wind+hydro+nuclear+solar farms and Twh energy storage is probably already enough to fully meet China's energy demands of 3 terawatts and more. But covering enough desert land to actually alter the climate is on another level, one of the world's biggest megaprojects, that's hundreds of thousands of Km^2 and like dozens of terawatts peak. China is probably the only country that can attempt such a project and it will still take decades.

It's possible but due to the reasons listed above, not economically viable, it will need to be a big government project running at a massive lost for a good few years/decades before they figure out what to do with all that excess electricity, if at all. But again, due to the anti-desertification effects it will probably worth it in the end, the social and environmental costs cannot be measured directly in money after all. China is already spending billions on existing anti-desertification programs that don't generate any power or direct profits. But who knows if China will actually go though with it.

It will take decades and who knows? Maybe by then automation and A.I will be good enough to find a way to economically find a way to make use of all that energy.
 

tphuang

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The issue as always is economics. Current economical models means that variance and unpredictable supply chain means more expensive cost of operation. Peaker gas plants are way more expensive because they only run once in a while to cover for renewable shortfalls. If you build your factories to run on excess solar, there's going to be days where you can't operate because of rain/snowfall/sandstorm, not to mention winter. This is not a deal breaker but means that it's going to drive up costs.

The other issue is scaling up. This is terawatts of energy we're talking about here. Making and installing the solar panels/wind turbines it is one thing, actually making the factories that can use those terawatts is another. China consumes 2.5 terawatts peak, that's all of China, I can't imagine the number of factories needed to fully make use of terawatts of extra solar, or the time needed to build them. Not to mention that you still need the raw materials, you might have cheap electricity but you still need the raw ore to refine Al, water to make H2 etc. That and the labour force to man the massive amount of factories.

3rd issue is demand. We are talking terawatts of excess energy here, even if you have the factories and the raw materials to make full use of it and are churning out billions of tons of H2, hydrocarbons, aluminium etc etc, you might not have the demand for it to be economically viable, no matter how cheap it is.

Like I said, rooftop solar+wind/offshore wind+hydro+nuclear+solar farms and Twh energy storage is probably already enough to fully meet China's energy demands of 3 terawatts and more. But covering enough desert land to actually alter the climate is on another level, one of the world's biggest megaprojects, that's hundreds of thousands of Km^2 and like dozens of terawatts peak. China is probably the only country that can attempt such a project and it will still take decades.

It's possible but due to the reasons listed above, not economically viable, it will need to be a big government project running at a massive lost for a good few years/decades before they figure out what to do with all that excess electricity, if at all. But again, due to the anti-desertification effects it will probably worth it in the end, the social and environmental costs cannot be measured directly in money after all. China is already spending billions on existing anti-desertification programs that don't generate any power or direct profits. But who knows if China will actually go though with it.

It will take decades and who knows? Maybe by then automation and A.I will be good enough to find a way to economically find a way to make use of all that energy.
what are you talking about? China is going to be greatest exporter of energy in the world in the future. Europe, Japan, Singapore, Korea. Any country without spare land to build wind/solar farms will be importing from China. It's going to be cheaper to important green hydrogen from China than LNG once they get the transportation & renewable power generation costs down.
 

tphuang

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Glenn did a solid look here at the amount of solar needed to cover all of China's electricity needs

so this is less theoretical and more based on what they have deployed. Keep in mind that solar panels are increasing in efficiency, so you can get more energy than this with latest solar panels
 

tphuang

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Two days later, Dajin
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) captured another contract in Europe. My guess is that this is somewhat related to the Irish offshore wind farm bidding that just got awarded today.
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Just a couple of weeks ago, it won contract for monopiles in Demark
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Just these two contracts from this week alone is higher value than its total earning from last year
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The way I look at is that as Dajin continues to expand and get more experience building foundations of offshore wind farm. It might eventually just push out competition

The other company to watch out for is 东方电缆 (SH:603606) - they do the submarine cables.

The scale of Chinese projects are just larger and more difficult than anyone else. So as they show they are the most capable of supplying monopiles, turbine structures, submarine cables, these 2 companies should expand exponentially.
Just to show the improving competitiveness of Chinese firm. I found another one that has been winning contracts that that is
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(SH600522)

just won two new contracts on in Europe and one domestically
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In Europe, it is for Orsted Wind Power's Baltica 2 project and the contract is worth 1.209B RMB for 275kV submarine cable

and the other one is domestic
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for 968m RMB for 220kV cable near Guangdong

This is after winning a major submarine contract with Brazil
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And Mexican oil & gas field in February
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they also won contracts with Saudi Arabia, Malaysia & Myanmar

Basically as we get more of these offshore wind projects domestically, there just more of these domestic players that are finding their way to more lucrative international contracts.
 

tphuang

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Major projects in China to increase solar raw material. Looks like all in inner mongolia

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In total 350k ton of poly-silicon
300k ton of industrial silicon
300k ton of green substrate project

内蒙古是我国重要的
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硅材料生产基地,据我协会初步统计,截至2022年底,全区有多晶硅、单晶硅、切片和组件企业17家。多晶硅产能35.66万吨,主要企业有通威(永祥)、协鑫、鄂尔多斯硅业、新特能源、东立电子、东方日升(盾安光伏);单晶硅产能220.5GW,主要企业有中环、美科、弘元、阿特斯、豪安、晶澳、双良、华耀光电、中成榆能源;签约和在建金属硅、工业硅、有机硅、颗粒硅、多晶硅项目17个,多晶硅产能234万吨,单晶硅产能181GW,电池产能86GW,组件产能41GW。这三个项目如果能够建成投产,内蒙古将成为全国最大的光伏硅材料生产基地,我国光伏硅材料各环节产品的竞争也必将更加的激烈,也会加速落后产能的淘汰速度。
once these 3 projects are in production, Inner Mongolia will become the largest source of PV silicon material in China. Allowing backward production capacity to be eliminated.
 

enroger

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The problem with green hydrogen is low energy efficiency, around 50% efficiency to electrolyze water, around 50% fuel cell efficiency to turn hydrogen into electricity, so overall about 25% energy efficiency.

Battery on the other hand has over 80% overall efficiency.

I have no doubt the future is going to be solar + storage, my bet is on battery. Especially as battery is getting cheaper and cheaper, cycle time keeps improving, now they are at 10k cycles, consider one charging cycle per day that is about 30 years of use. Only thing is to worry about scarcity of materials such as lithium, CATL's sodium battery is one to pay attention to.
 
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