Climate Change and Renewable Energy News and Discussion

antwerpery

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What do you base these predictions on? Tarot cards, astrology, i-Ching, tealeaves? Or are you just following the modern Nostrodamus, Craig Hamilton-Parker?
The fact that it's already happening? Heat stress in many countries is already a thing. The Indian 2024 heatwave was already the worse on record, and likely killed tens of thousands of people, maybe hundreds of thousands across the entire country, especially if you count the secondary effects from heat related complications. Heat waves shut down schools and business across SEA, Africa and south asia, I nearly got heat exhaustion myself last year from a tiny amount of physical activity out in the mid-day sun. The Philippines were getting hit by a Super typhoon every 2 weeks during the last 2 months of the typhoon season. A decent chunk of LA literally just burned down. It's just a natural continuation of the trends that we're already seeing. The only really outlandish predictions is the mass crop heat death, and the amount of people I think will die in South Asia from heatstroke. I guess we'll see by the end of the year just how right I am.
 
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tokenanalyst

Brigadier
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What do you base these predictions on? Tarot cards, astrology, i-Ching, tealeaves? Or are you just following the modern Nostrodamus, Craig Hamilton-Parker?
Yes that is an extreme prediction for just one year. But 2 degrees by 2050 is an optimistic scenario IMO and in accumulated energy equivalency theoretically would be like exploding six 50 megaton tsar bombas every single day non stop till 2050 or a Krakatoa every 16 hours. That is a lot of disposable energy for dynamic systems like weather phenomena, for example CAT 4 and 5 hurricanes from my POV looks like are becoming the norm, IDK maybe I am bias seeing that trend.
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antwerpery

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Odisha is reeling under a severe heat wave, with temperatures soaring above 35°C in at least 10 cities across the state.


According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the heat wave will persist for the next 4-5 days, with no significant change in day temperatures.According to reports, the temperature in Koraput reached 40 degrees Celsius in January, breaking a 52-year-old record. Similarly, on January 31, the temperature in Bhawanipatna reached 34 degrees Celsius, the second-highest temperature ever recorded in the city.

Last year, Bhubaneswar experienced a prolonged heat wave, with temperatures remaining above 40 degrees Celsius for 16 consecutive days in April. This was a rare occurrence, and the city witnessed a new record being set.The IMD has predicted that the heat wave will continue to intensify, and the temperature will likely remain above 35 degrees Celsius.


Sambalpur, Hirakud, and Jharsuguda recorded a temperature of 35.9°C. Bhubaneswar and Talcher recorded a temperature of 33.8°C. Koraput’s temperature stood at 33.2°C. Phulbani recorded a temperature of 32.9°C. Jagatsinghpur’s temperature was 32.8°C. Baripada recorded a temperature of 32.6°C. Chatrapur’s temperature stood at 32.7°C. Keonjhar recorded a temperature of 32.3°C. Cuttack and Puri recorded a temperature of 31.8°C. Daringbadi’s temperature was 31.5°C.
This is India's winter season btw. It doesn't become summer until March and April/May are usually the hottest months. Hold on to your butts. If a mass casualty happens in India, with entire cities getting decimated, millions dead over just the course of days. That will be a tipping point in the fight vs climate change. People and politicians can ignore wildfires, droughts, hurricanes, floods easily since they have always happened. Entire cities getting wiped out from mass heatstroke? Millions of death? A lot harder to ignore. It would probably be the beginning of the end of India as well. Mass immigration on a scale never before seen as Indians realize that their country is doomed. Foreign investors pulling out of India on a massive scale as well when they realize that India has no future in an increasingly warming world. Tensions within the country would be at an all time high.

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India has experienced a dry winter season (January-February) in 2025, with 89 per cent of districts suffering from deficient, large deficient, or no rainfall, according to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Despite a higher-than-normal number of western disturbances (WD), their impact on rainfall was minimal, the IMD stated in its climate summary for January. The country recorded a 71 per cent rainfall deficit as of February 10, with January marking the fifth-lowest rainfall since 1901 and the third-lowest since 2001.
More than half (51 per cent) of India’s districts received no rainfall at all, while 31 per cent recorded large deficient rainfall (between 60 and 99 per cent below normal) between January 1 and February 10. Another seven per cent experienced deficient rainfall (between 21 and 59 per cent below normal). Five states — Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Odisha and Mizoram—received no rainfall during this period.
Maharashtra was particularly affected, with 35 out of its 36 districts recording no rainfall and one district classified as having large deficient rainfall. Gujarat, a major Rabi crop-producing state, also faced significant deficits.
And there's also drought to worry about.
 

coolgod

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This is India's winter season btw. It doesn't become summer until March and April/May are usually the hottest months. Hold on to your butts. If a mass casualty happens in India, with entire cities getting decimated, millions dead over just the course of days. That will be a tipping point in the fight vs climate change. People and politicians can ignore wildfires, droughts, hurricanes, floods easily since they have always happened. Entire cities getting wiped out from mass heatstroke? Millions of death? A lot harder to ignore. It would probably be the beginning of the end of India as well. Mass immigration on a scale never before seen as Indians realize that their country is doomed. Foreign investors pulling out of India on a massive scale as well when they realize that India has no future in an increasingly warming world. Tensions within the country would be at an all time high.

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And there's also drought to worry about.
Millions of Indians died during Covid, did India change? No.
 

antwerpery

Junior Member
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Millions of Indians died during Covid, did India change? No.
Nah. Even it gets hot, healthy people hide under the sun. Only weak and old die. Good for india demographic
You guys are really underestimating the effect that heat has on society. No one has to die and high temperatures will still fuck shit up. It's literally thermodynamics in action here, a heat engine, aka the basic unit of work, works better the colder it is. And it's much easier to heat things up than to cool things down.

I myself live in a hot and humid place, somewhere that max only gets to around 35-38 degrees, rather than the 40-50 that you see in India, and it already sucks big time. It's like everyone is carrying a 20kg load constantly. Physical activity basically becomes impossible in the noon. Even morning and evenings are hard too, your physical endurance is reduced by a lot even in 30 degree temperatures. You need to drink so much more water, everything stinks because everyone is sweating, tempers flare up a lot easier, cognition is effected as you struggle to think, skin conditions become a lot more common. Even reproduction is affected as your sperm get boiled. There's lots and lots of minor things that add up, even something as simple as "the average joe will need to shower 3 times a day instead of just 1", because everyone is so sweaty, has major implications on water usage and water stress when applied to hundreds of millions of people.

This of course reduces productively and GDP, especially for a country like india that still depends on a lot of outdoor activities like construction and agriculture, and most indians can't afford air-conditioning, nor can India build up the grid fast enough to provide the dozens of GWs needed for hundreds of millions gaining access to air-conditioning. Why do you think most indians are so desperate to escape the country?

And of course, if you see 1 heat stroke death, there's probably a hundred times that number that got heat exhustation or heat stroke that didn't result in death. I myself got a veryy mild case of heat exhustation once, and it knocked me out for almost a week, it was like a really bad case of flu. Heat stroke is very serious, even if you survive, you will need months to recover and if it's a particularly bad case, it can leave you to lifelong side effects, as if you had a stroke or heart attack. Literally nobody has to die but if India has two hundred million heat exhustation cases over the course of a month that leaves the vicitims bedbound for a week, that's still gonna fuck their economy up badly. We are already seeing this in 2024. Most Indian companies earning calls in 2024, reported that the heat wave greatly impacted their earnings, workers couldn't work as long hours, people getting sick, decreased consumption etc etc. There's a reason why global south features a lot of countries that usually have higher than average temperatures ranges than the optimal 28-22 degree for humans.

And that's humans. Livestock share the same biological heat limits as humans. Plants are more heat resistant, but heat stunting and wilting is common and in 50+ degree temperatures, plants can also outright die like mammals. Food also spoils a lot faster in high temperatures. Even non-ogranic aren't spared, a lot of stuff like ICEs, solar panels, computing, heat engines of all kinds work better when it's cold. Increased heat expansion increases wear and tear. Droughts and wildfires will rise with the temperature. Even the Monsoons that bring relief from the heat will be affected, since warmer air can hold more moisture, which increases the risk for massive floods.

There's probably even more downsides. 2024 really showed how bad it is and it will only get worse from here. It's not like we're going carbon neutral anytimes soon after all. Even year will be a little bit worse, and India is on the forefront for just how bad shit is gonna get. It's kinda crazy how Modi is still going around begging for F-35 sales, instead of facing this incoming threat with full focus. There can be zero deaths, but I can guarantee you that summer is still gonna be a stab in the gut for India.

Fun fact, in SEA, studies have found that productively per worker more than doubled with access to air-conditioning vs room temperature.
 
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Wrought

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New paper from Carbon Brief, written by Lauri, detailing the huge contributions of clean energy sectors to 2024 growth.

Clean-energy technologies contributed more than 10% of China’s economic growth in 2024 for the first time ever, with sales and investments worth 13.6tn yuan ($1.9tn). Clean-energy sectors drove a quarter of the country’s
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(GDP) growth in 2024 and have overtaken real-estate sales in value. The new sector-by-sector analysis for Carbon Brief, based on official figures, industry data and analyst reports, shows the growing role of clean technology in China’s economy – particularly the so-called “
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” industries, namely, solar, electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries. For this analysis, a broad definition has been used for “clean-energy” sectors, including renewables, nuclear power, electricity grids, energy storage, EVs and railways. These are technologies and infrastructure needed to decarbonise China’s production and use of energy.

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