Climate Change and Renewable Energy News and Discussion

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
China is building hundreds of gigawatts of renewables a year. A handful of new coal power plants that can scale down their output isn't going to cut it. Eventually renewables capacity will outstrip all coal capacity within a decade at the rate of new installations. Stable baseload won't be that much of an issue, the main issue will be that China will be producing so much excess power on sunny and windy days that it will have to curtail much of it's renewables or risk shorting out the grid.

Coal can provide good baseload but does nothing to store extra power.
You don't get it, the 80% potential outputs of the new coal fire plants are conceptually energy storage (not in a conventional sense). When the renewables are putting out full power, the coal fire plants scale back their output. When the renewables aren't generating the power needed, the coal fire plants will take over.
 

tacoburger

Junior Member
Registered Member
You don't get it, the 80% potential outputs of the new coal fire plants are conceptually energy storage (not in a conventional sense). When the renewables are putting out full power, the coal fire plants scale back their output. When the renewables aren't generating the power needed, the coal fire plants will take over.
You are the one that doesn't get it. That's fine if there's around a 50:50 ratio of renewables to coal, which is the situation today, you can scale up coal when renewables are low, and scale down coal when renewables are high . What happens when the ratio is more like 90:10 in 10 years? What happens when you can generate 5 terawatts of renewables at peak capacity and only have 500 gigawatts of coal at peak capacity to balance the books? No amount of scaling up or down of coal is going to balance the scales when the disparity is that high. And it's not like all of China's coal fleet can throttle up and down, only the the newer plants. Are you gonna spend trillions to build thousands of new coal plants to always have them at a 50:50 ratio with renewables?

Keep in mind that gigawatt scale power plants are not cheap. And a coal plant idling at 20% capacity or entirely idle for most of the year is losing money, you can't build too many of them. Gas peaker plants already exist, and their electricity prices are insane, because they have to make back their initial capital cost while only running a handful of times a year.

Also keep in mind that coal plants running on an unpredictable schedule is not the same as a battery or gas peaker plant running at an unpredictable schedule. Coal plants needs physical inputs of thousands of tons of coal on standby. Batteries don't need any physical fuel and gas peaker plants can use pipelines to quickly get access to their fuel. The logistics for moving thousands of tons coal are a lot more complicated if you don't know if you're gonna be idling for months at a time and suddenly might have to go 100% for days randomly.
Heat is a low-quality form of energy. There's like waste heat from all sorts of places.
Heat is great energy as it's easy to manage and many industries need raw heat anyway. All fossil fuel power is literally just heat engines, it's called thermal power for a reason.
Theoretically, once you have a completely electric vehicle fleet, you only need about 20% of that existing paid-for battery capacity for an entire day's electricity usage.
Vehicle to grid tech is still new and it depends largely on the consumer. Not a good idea for baseload storage.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
You are the one that doesn't get it. That's fine if there's around a 50:50 ratio of renewables to coal, which is the situation today, you can scale up coal when renewables are low, and scale down coal when renewables are high . What happens when the ratio is more like 90:10 in 10 years? What happens when you can generate 5 terawatts of renewables at peak capacity and only have 500 gigawatts of coal at peak capacity to balance the books? No amount of scaling up or down of coal is going to balance the scales. And it's not like all of China's coal fleet can throttle up and down, only the the newer plants.
Keep in mind that gigawatt scale power plants are not cheap. And a coal plant idling at 20% capacity or entirely idle for most of the year is losing money, you can't build too many of them. Gas peaker plants already exist, and their electricity prices are insane, because they have to make back their initial capital cost while only running a handful of times a year. Are you gonna spend billion to build hundreds of coal plants to always have them at a 50:50 ratio with renewables?

I expect to see the cost of [wind/solar+battery] to be less than coal within 5-15 years.

But we're not yet at this point yet, so in the meantime, coal backup plants are the lowest cost option to intermittant renewable generation.

And if you look at the cost profile of coal power plants today, the plant itself is cheap. It's the coal which comprises the vast majority of operating costs.

And it's more accurate to use an example of: [instantaneous renewable generation of 5 TW] versus [coal capacity of 0.5 TW x 24 hours)

Heat is great energy as it's easy to manage and many industries need raw heat anyway. All fossil fuel power is literally just heat engines, it's called thermal power for a reason.

If we're talking about generating electricity from heat, you need a high-temperature source to get decent conversion efficiency.
The high temperatures make heat storage difficult to manage, so you end up with similar issues to CSP molten salt storage.

Vehicle to grid tech is still new and it depends largely on the consumer. Not a good idea for baseload storage.

But we can all see Vehicle to Grid is the way forward and a big part of the solution. Electric cars are all going to have this capability along with oversized batteries which spend the majority of the time being underutilised. It's going to be profitable to arbitrage solar electricity costing 1-2c during the daytime and then resell for much more during evening peaks.
 
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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
You are the one that doesn't get it. That's fine if there's around a 50:50 ratio of renewables to coal, which is the situation today, you can scale up coal when renewables are low, and scale down coal when renewables are high . What happens when the ratio is more like 90:10 in 10 years? What happens when you can generate 5 terawatts of renewables at peak capacity and only have 500 gigawatts of coal at peak capacity to balance the books? No amount of scaling up or down of coal is going to balance the scales when the disparity is that high. And it's not like all of China's coal fleet can throttle up and down, only the the newer plants. Are you gonna spend trillions to build thousands of new coal plants to always have them at a 50:50 ratio with renewables?

Keep in mind that gigawatt scale power plants are not cheap. And a coal plant idling at 20% capacity or entirely idle for most of the year is losing money, you can't build too many of them. Gas peaker plants already exist, and their electricity prices are insane, because they have to make back their initial capital cost while only running a handful of times a year.

Also keep in mind that coal plants running on an unpredictable schedule is not the same as a battery or gas peaker plant running at an unpredictable schedule. Coal plants needs physical inputs of thousands of tons of coal on standby. Batteries don't need any physical fuel and gas peaker plants can use pipelines to quickly get access to their fuel. The logistics for moving thousands of tons coal are a lot more complicated if you don't know if you're gonna be idling for months at a time and suddenly might have to go 100% for days randomly.

Heat is great energy as it's easy to manage and many industries need raw heat anyway. All fossil fuel power is literally just heat engines, it's called thermal power for a reason.

Vehicle to grid tech is still new and it depends largely on the consumer. Not a good idea for baseload storage.
You're arguing with someone who doesn't know enough to know they don't know enough.

This is why I gave up trying to educate him.
 

jli88

Junior Member
Registered Member
Battery market share out.

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Highlights (for Jan 24- Apr 24 based on SNE research):
  1. Battery volume grows 21.8%
  2. Market Share in percentages (in brackets are the growth or decline from previous years)
    1. CATL 37.7 (+2.4)
    2. BYD 15.4
    3. Korean Battery Makers 22.8 (-2.4)
    4. LG 12.9
    5. Samsung 5.1
    6. SK 4.8
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
You are the one that doesn't get it. That's fine if there's around a 50:50 ratio of renewables to coal, which is the situation today, you can scale up coal when renewables are low, and scale down coal when renewables are high . What happens when the ratio is more like 90:10 in 10 years? What happens when you can generate 5 terawatts of renewables at peak capacity and only have 500 gigawatts of coal at peak capacity to balance the books? No amount of scaling up or down of coal is going to balance the scales when the disparity is that high. And it's not like all of China's coal fleet can throttle up and down, only the the newer plants. Are you gonna spend trillions to build thousands of new coal plants to always have them at a 50:50 ratio with renewables?

Keep in mind that gigawatt scale power plants are not cheap. And a coal plant idling at 20% capacity or entirely idle for most of the year is losing money, you can't build too many of them. Gas peaker plants already exist, and their electricity prices are insane, because they have to make back their initial capital cost while only running a handful of times a year.

Also keep in mind that coal plants running on an unpredictable schedule is not the same as a battery or gas peaker plant running at an unpredictable schedule. Coal plants needs physical inputs of thousands of tons of coal on standby. Batteries don't need any physical fuel and gas peaker plants can use pipelines to quickly get access to their fuel. The logistics for moving thousands of tons coal are a lot more complicated if you don't know if you're gonna be idling for months at a time and suddenly might have to go 100% for days randomly.
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Solar and wind will take a long long time to match the amount of actual electricity generated by coal fire power plants. By then sodium battery may be mature enough to provide a low cost solution for grid energy sotrage.

By the way, China is using regular hydroelectric power plants (not pump storage) as base laod for solar and wind plants. Probably more applicable during dry seasons.

Since you are so gung-ho about thermal energy storage developed by Europeans, can you please tell us how much grid-level capacity have been installed in Europe? Is anyone in China researching/developing the tech? How far behind is China?
 
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tphuang

Lieutenant General
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这一项目规划建设50万吨/年风光制氢合成绿氨技术示范项目,项目主要包括风光发电、电解水制储氢、储能和绿氢化工四个部分。

其中氢能部分,制氢产能为10.13万吨/年,建设216000Nm³/h碱性电解水制氢设备,设置112套1500Nm³/h碱性电解槽和24套2000Nm³/h碱性电解槽。

储氢规模为105.6万Nm³,设置48台2000m³球型储罐储氢,可满足下游合成绿氨装置约8.1h满负荷运行连续用氢需求。

绿氢化工部分,包括绿氢合成绿氨及合成尿素,其中合成绿氨年产量50万吨,合成氨装机规模为80万吨。绿氨进一步与现有煤化工装置耦合,捕集精制煤化工尾气中CO2合成绿色尿素,年产量为88万吨
very interesting, you have a project here that uses wind solar to produce 101.3k ton/ year of green hydrogen through 216000NM3/h of electrolysis equipment
with 1.056 million NM3 of hydrogen storage through very largest storage containers for hydrogen.
This is used to produce 500k ton of green ammonia a year (with capacity to produce 800k ton, so expansion left)
Can be combined with captured CO2 from coal chemical plant here to produce 880k ton of green Urea/year

From what I can read here
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Urea is a raw material used in the manufacture of many chemicals, such as various plastics, urea-formaldehyde resins and adhesives. It is also essential for making feedstock, glue, fertilizer, commercial products, and in resin production.
 
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