Climate Change and Renewable Energy News and Discussion

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Look out for China's Hydrogen Fuel Plans. I think there is a competition here between Japan and China. Japan has placed its bets on Hydrogen Fuel cells ( as it looks to secure its future energy needs) but then China is the equalizer who threatens Japan's plans for monopoly.

Another technology to look out for is the Aluminum Ion Batteries.

The Japanese automobile industry going with hydrogen was a big mistake.
And why didn't they partner up with Panasonic to produce lithium-ion batteries? Instead it was Telsa that went with Panasonic.

On Hydrogen, it's going to be a niche with say 5-10% of the overall transport industry (trucks, buses, small planes etc, but not cars)

And looking at the road-freight statistics, it looks like China has a trucking industry some 30x larger than Japan.
That's a huge market to work with.

If China gets 4% of its trucking industry onto hydrogen first, that is larger than the entire Japanese industry, so you expect China to build a world-class hydrogen industry first.
And 4% of the overall Chinese market isn't very much, nor does it impose much in the way of overall cost to the trucking market.

Freight transport - Road
(Million tonne-kilometres)

China: 6-7
USA: 3
Japan: 0.2
 
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Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
I suppose this is totally different type of development, nothing related with recently developed molten salt reactor?
Yes, a different type.
A thorium based molten salt reactor ( experimental) is there in Wuwei, Gansu Province ( Western China).
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This 4th gen pebble bed reactor is in Shandong ( Eastern Coastal China).
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
The Japanese automobile industry going with hydrogen was a big mistake.
And why didn't they partner up with Panasonic to produce lithium-ion batteries? Instead it was Telsa that went with Panasonic.

On Hydrogen, it's going to be a niche with say 5-10% of the overall transport industry (trucks, buses, small planes etc, but not cars)

And looking at the road-freight statistics, it looks like China has a trucking industry some 30x larger than Japan.
That's a huge market to work with.

Freight transport - Road
(Million tonne-kilometres)

China: 6-7
USA: 3
Japan: 0.2
I think it has to do with long term strategic independence or security while trying to leverage its existing technology advantages. Hydrogen fuel is combusted in efficient Internal combustion engines which Japan has a solid grasp of. It is unlike the Toyota Mirai which uses Fuel cells that take in hydrogen.
1640005351860.png

So, it is a multi pronged approach. IC engines and Fuel Cells both playing its part separately for Japan. Still, China can pull a surprise on Japan.
 

Godzilla

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think it has to do with long term strategic independence or security while trying to leverage its existing technology advantages. Hydrogen fuel is combusted in efficient Internal combustion engines which Japan has a solid grasp of. It is unlike the Toyota Mirai which uses Fuel cells that take in hydrogen.
View attachment 80128

So, it is a multi pronged approach. IC engines and Fuel Cells both playing its part separately for Japan. Still, China can pull a surprise on Japan.
I think Japanese companies are also actively pursuing JV with Chinese ones in this field. However, I was told their main focus is to sell licenses for the technology. Might actually work out well for both if they have the right people on the job.
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
I think Japanese companies are also actively pursuing JV with Chinese ones in this field. However, I was told their main focus is to sell licenses for the technology. Might actually work out well for both if they have the right people on the job.
I don't think that'd bring in significant benefits for Japan (IP or licenses). Research on the field is distributed across the world ( EU, US, China etc) and I don't see Japan gaining a comprehensive lead. Also, geopolitics might play a big role where China will seek to outplay Japan (and vice versa).

I don't rate Hydrogen as a good fuel through ( storage is a concern, right?) And traditional LNG storage won't be enough to store Hydrogen which is quite known for leakage and volatility.

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I think it has to do with long term strategic independence or security while trying to leverage its existing technology advantages. Hydrogen fuel is combusted in efficient Internal combustion engines which Japan has a solid grasp of. It is unlike the Toyota Mirai which uses Fuel cells that take in hydrogen.

So, it is a multi pronged approach. IC engines and Fuel Cells both playing its part separately for Japan. Still, China can pull a surprise on Japan.

I think it's more about Japanese automakers wanting control and not being open to outside innovations.
This is a characteristic with Japanese companies generally.

But when the entire global automotive industry was shifting to batteries, it was foolish for Japan to stick its head in the sand.

Expect the Japanese automakers to shrink in size as their cars become uncompetitive with American, European, and especially Chinese automakers.
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
I think it's more about Japanese automakers wanting control and not being open to outside innovations.
This is a characteristic with Japanese companies generally.

But when the entire global automotive industry was shifting to batteries, it was foolish for Japan to stick its head in the sand.

Expect the Japanese automakers to shrink in size as their cars become uncompetitive with American, European, and especially Chinese automakers.
They have accumulated a lot of good brand name and identity. But I don't expect them to lead the pack, like you said. Chinese automakers may have to adopt a different approach as there is a lack of good identity outside China ( M&A of lesser known European / Western brands would be a good start).
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
They have accumulated a lot of good brand name and identity. But I don't expect them to lead the pack, like you said. Chinese automakers may have to adopt a different approach as there is a lack of good identity outside China ( M&A of lesser known European / Western brands would be a good start).

This is the latest automotive battery pricing I can see

$115/KWh (Tesla - Lithium Nickel Cobalt Aluminum Oxide)
$99/KWh (BYD blade - Lithium Ferrous Phosphate)
$77/KWh (2022 CATL - Sodium ion)

The Sodium-Ion batteries are interesting because it's a comparatively new battery chemistry and only just starting mass-production.
Once they've ramped up in 2023, the price is to drop by half from $77/KWh to perhaps $40/KWh

At $40/KWh, a 50KWh car battery pack would only cost $2000.

Currently, 20% of car sales in China are for NEVs.
But if battery costs drop by half in the next 2 years, we will see further explosive growth in China and also elsewhere.

That will apply particular to developing markets where Japanese automakers have significant market share.
But what will happen if Chinese automakers start coming in with electric vehicles which cost less to run than the Japanese combustion-engine vehicles?

cleantechnica.com/2021/07/30/catl-reveals-sodium-ion-battery-with-160-wh-kg-energy-density/
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
World's first fourth-generation high-temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power project that is connected to the grid for power generation : 10MW pebble-bed modular high-temperature gas-cooled experimental reactor connected to Power Grid

"China National Nuclear Corporation" WeChat public account issued an article on December 20: On December 20, announced that the world's first pebble bed modular high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear power plant- Shandong Rongcheng Shidaowan -demonstration project was successfully delivered. This is the world's first fourth-generation high-temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power project that is connected to the grid for power generation. It marks that my country has become one of the few countries in the world that has mastered fourth-generation nuclear energy technology. By.

As an important participant in the construction of the demonstration project of high-temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power plants, China National Nuclear Corporation, together with Tsinghua University and Huaneng Group, has played an important role in EPC general contracting, fuel element manufacturing, and engineering construction. After the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power plant demonstration project is put into production, the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor will further enter the five sub-target markets of "hydrogen, steam, water, heat, and electricity", and provide a comprehensive solution for the realization of the "dual carbon" goal. . At present, China National Nuclear Corporation regards the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor as one of the main types of the spectrum reactor type sequence, and is steadily advancing the next larger-scale high-temperature gas-cooled reactor project.

View attachment 80127

The key core technology of high-temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power plants belongs to China. The localization rate of equipment is as high as 93.4%. Approximately 50,000 drawings, 100,000 pages of documents and more than 15,000 nuclear reactor equipment with high technical content and high safety design requirements have been formed. From the completion of the 10MW pebble-bed modular high-temperature gas-cooled experimental reactor, to now the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power plant is officially connected to the grid for power generation, China has taken the advanced nuclear energy technology of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor from scratch, from following to parallel. A big step from technology introduction to independent innovation has achieved high-level technological self-reliance and self-reliance.

A few days ago, at the just-concluded high-level forum of China National Nuclear Corporation and Tsinghua University’s Party Building to Promote Major Technological Innovations, a comprehensive summary of the major special technological achievements and institutional innovation achievements of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors was made. , China Nuclear Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is the link that gathers all parties in the innovation chain of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor industry chain, forming a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor innovation network led by party building, close contact, mutual support, and win-win cooperation, and step out a way to promote nuclear energy technology

It is reported that the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor is known as the "reactor that will not melt down", and the high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear power plant is also known as the "safest nuclear power plant." A large amount of radioactivity was released, bringing a new realm to the application of nuclear energy. On the basis of inherent safety, the high temperature gas-cooled reactor also has the characteristics of high temperature, strong environmental adaptability, and flexible combination of multiple modules. Its temperature parameters also cover ethanol purification, salt chemical industry, petrochemical industry, coal chemical industry, hydrogen production and other fields.

I thought this was supposed to be a 2 x 105MW reactors?
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
This is the latest automotive battery pricing I can see

$115/KWh (Tesla - Lithium Nickel Cobalt Aluminum Oxide)
$99/KWh (BYD blade - Lithium Ferrous Phosphate)
$77/KWh (2022 CATL - Sodium ion)

The Sodium-Ion batteries are interesting because it's a comparatively new battery chemistry and only just starting mass-production.
Once they've ramped up in 2023, the price is to drop by half from $77/KWh to perhaps $40/KWh

At $40/KWh, a 50KWh car battery pack would only cost $2000.

Currently, 20% of car sales in China are for NEVs.
But if battery costs drop by half in the next 2 years, we will see further explosive growth in China and also elsewhere.

That will apply particular to developing markets where Japanese automakers have significant market share.
But what will happen if Chinese automakers start coming in with electric vehicles which cost less to run than the Japanese combustion-engine vehicles?

cleantechnica.com/2021/07/30/catl-reveals-sodium-ion-battery-with-160-wh-kg-energy-density/
CATL has a sodium ion battery program that started production. But the performance of the first gen Na ion batteries aren't as good as Li batteries regarding energy densities. They do work under low temperatures so that maybe a plus when exporting cars / trucks to Global North.
 
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