Chinese submarines thread

[flyzies]

Brilliant hypothesis crobato...
But if no successor to Yuan comes out dont you think itll leave gap in coastal defence? Cos SSNs dont perform as well as SSKs with AIP in littoral waters...

I dont think itll hurt PLAN if they kept both these doctrines you described. Going totally nuclear would be a mistake i think, cos SSKs do give you certain advantages over SSNs...however, it is important to focus more on power projection in future. Main reason for this is protection of trade routes and sea lanes, therefore i think PLAN should focus more on this and next generation of SSNs. Keeping SSKs around for Taiwan scenario and coastal defence will be more than worthwhile tho...

 

[crobato]

Brilliant hypothesis crobato...
But if no successor to Yuan comes out dont you think itll leave gap in coastal defence? Cos SSNs dont perform as well as SSKs with AIP in littoral waters...

Who are you defending from? Submarines or ships? If you are defending against ships, the PLAN seems to building a horde of 022s (some in the CDF is estimating more than 80+ have been built). It is against subs, a small surface vessel like a corvette with ASW capability can do it faster and at much less the cost. Remember the advantage of any surface vessel is their speed and ability to surge and concentrate in numbers at a given area.

And remember, if you are able to project power in the first place, you don't need much of a coastal defense at all. Power projection takes care of coastal defense itself. Note the United States Navy.

I dont think itll hurt PLAN if they kept both these doctrines you described. Going totally nuclear would be a mistake i think, cos SSKs do give you certain advantages over SSNs...however, it is important to focus more on power projection in future. Main reason for this is protection of trade routes and sea lanes, therefore i think PLAN should focus more on this and next generation of SSNs. Keeping SSKs around for Taiwan scenario and coastal defence will be more than worthwhile tho...

There is uncertainty in the doctrines, and I myself am not sure in my opinion how the PLAN should pursue. Remember, each Navy is formed by their own unique geographical requirements. China happens to be hemmed in by island chains which would take a force of nature or by God to remove. In a sense, the PLAN wants to be sure so they put a foot in all camps just to be safe. I have a sense they are not too comfortable to invest too much in the large grain (fewer, but bigger, more capable and more expensive ships) and still seeks the smaller grained (cheaper and more, but less capable and smaller ships). Trying to find a balance between size and number.

I do think that with changing political situations, experience and better hardware, in the future comes with more clarity and with it, focus on which doctrines the PLAN should concentrate more.

 

[Roger604]

you need to be a little more specific, which two songs from Shanghai? The Russians are not producing any more kilo for it's own navy. This is kind of interesting, a diesel sub model from China using X-tail with the 7 blade propeller.
[qimg]http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/2802/dieselsubmodeljan21at4.jpg[/qimg]

That is interesting indeed... assuming its a Chinese model. But how do you know it's a diesel sub? Perhaps the next generation the PLAn is pursuing is going to be a small, quasi-nuclear sub, like the Russian project.

 

[Gollevainen]

Does anyone have left the image of a model of the new proposed chinese SSK which emerged around same time when the good images of 093 popped up? It was smooth, U212'ish unlike any current chinese submarine. Perhaps this model is from the same sub...

 

[crobato]

Does anyone have left the image of a model of the new proposed chinese SSK which emerged around same time when the good images of 093 popped up? It was smooth, U212'ish unlike any current chinese submarine. Perhaps this model is from the same sub...

There was two models. The story goes the one with the x tail was a prototype for magnetohydrodynamic drive, while the one with the T tail is said to be a prototype for a new conventional sub. The images should around deep early in this same thread.

 

[beijingcar]

To Corbato: The U.K did away with SSK's has to do with the fact that where the country is located and also her navy is being part of the NATO framework, with the USSR being gone, with friendly navies all around, same goes for the French Navy( in fact both countries lack the funds to support both SSK and SSN in service). on the other hand, China faces a vast different environment, with unfriendly nations all around. That is where the newer SSK comes to be usefull. With the Chinese SSNs going for the deep seas to protect Chinese interest( or may be tasked to protecting the Chinese SSBNs if the PLAN does not use the bastion strategy of the USSR). The PLAN SSKs with AIP in Chinese coastal homewaters will be able to play with the USN's big fishs. During Cold war times, Even with a robust Sub fleet, the USSR home waters had regularly seen shadows of USN's SSNs, so the best way to hund and kill a Sub is another Sub. On top of all these is the fact of all of the 033, 035 needed to be replaced( may not be on one on one bases). The PLAN has always being strong in her Sub fleet compare to her surface fleet. They are just trying to keep what has being a relatively strong area still yet stronger. Also at three times of the cost and at leat twice the time for building the SSN. The PLAN simply can not afford( money and time frame) to built SSN only. In next ten years, I think we may see SSK to SSN ration to be 3:2 in the PLAN. P.S one more factor is you can export an SSK to make $, but you do not export SSN. So I think the SSK is here to stay.

 

[Skywatcher]

The Chinese could offer the Yuan or any follow up hybrid/AIP models as something for the export market.

 

[crobato]

True. Its a sword and shield strategy. The nuke subs being the sword, the diesel subs being the shield.

The ratio of building SSKs to SSNs however, seemed to have shifted in favor of SSNs in 2007. That is three highly likely 094s at least, vs. two Yuans, though the last Songs were probably finished early this year. Unless of course, there are more Yuans that were built that were not caught in camera.

033s are not likely to be replaced on a one to one basis, the 035s are not that high in number. Old subs are reserved for training duties.

What is more limited than money is trained personnel. If you have a finite source of personnel, you want them on the most effective platform as possible. I don't think China can afford to keep a sheer large number of submarines, simply said I think they would go for less subs that can do more. Like the rest of the services, going more for quality rather than quantity.

One thing I must say about planning. Original plans and how plans evolve are two different things. Whatever your original plans was, 5 to 10 years from now, circumstances and reconsiderations may have forced it to evolve.

AIP is not the wonder solution people might like to think. When using AIP, you're not exactly quiet, and a sub on AIP is still a lot slower than a nuclear sub.

The PLAN will definitely need SSKs for littoral operations, not just in its homeland but also that at potential threats, since it is literally surrounded by countries in the seas. I wonder if they will include special forces or spy insertions. China's very geographic nature means it cannot go into the blue seas without taking care of brown water control first. In fact, the huge chain of these countries from Indonesia to Japan represents the world's largest and most diverse littoral environment, then add China's immensely rugged coastline at that. It is very interesting to note that the three ESF sub bases are located in littoral waters if you check them in GE. The depth of the waters may make it inaccessible or risky for large nuclear subs.

 

[beijingcar]

I agree with you on these points. BTW, if the mainland were to take over Taiwan, then you will see more SSNs as compared to SSKs being put into service. We already seen picture of old 033 or 035 being used as special OP. The fact they keep some of these old boats around maybe for the reason of mine laying and Special forces. As for personal, the biggest problem facing the PLAN in that area is in their surface fleet, not in their SUB fleet.

 

[Skywatcher]

Any upgrades to the 093 (or future successors) would involve massive quieting upgrades. If necessary, they could also modify a subclass to deal with littoral issues if necessary.