Chinese shipbuilding industry

Tyler

Captain
Registered Member
Freight rates between Asia and Europe are jumping sky high. A forty footer container is now over $10,000, *gasp*. If you think this does not have a profound effect on your daily life, think again. Rising freight rates are going to mean rising costs of items you see in the store, supermarket, grocery and online.

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The rise of freight rates is a direct threat to the cost of both China's imports and exports which in turn is a direct threat to its economic performance.

This is a problem that has been in the making for over a decade. The ship building boom in the 2000s led to a bust around 2010 or so. When the bust happened, orders dropped, shipyards closed. There are still many ship orders but the global fleet had its attrition. Green regulations hastened the retirement of older ships, and the rising costs of steel made it more attractive to retire older ships earlier for scrapping. Now we are scrambling to build as many new ships as we can. You can expect spill over effects as ship owners make simultaneous orders in China, South Korea and Japan because its impossible to fulfill a large order in one shipyard at the same time.

The delivery of the CMA CGN Trocadero is most timely.
Is China able to double its shipbuilding capacity? China's population is way bigger than that of Korea, but shipbuilding industry is just slightly bigger in terms of tonnage.
 

by78

General
Xuelong 2 icebreaker.

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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Is China able to double its shipbuilding capacity? China's population is way bigger than that of Korea, but shipbuilding industry is just slightly bigger in terms of tonnage.

There are many shipyards around the world, including in China, that closed in the last ten years due to a glut in shipping capacity and ship building. Ship building is like the fabs in the semiconductor industry --- capital intensive, easy to lose money, requires plenty of orders to survive. That's how the commercial shipbuilding industry in the US and UK got decimated over the decades in the first place.

Even shipyards in Korea are being consolidated because they are losing money, and Japan is well off from its peak during the '70s. Remember Hanjin? Their enormous shipyard in Subic Bay in the Philippines were closed.

Like semiconductor fabs, you cannot build shipyards with the huge 500 meter long plus drydocks to build the megamaxes overnight. These things take years to plan, sites specially selected and are massive infrastructure projects on their own right. The fear is that when you build the new shipyards, who is able to forecast that we might have a glut in ships and shipbuilding in the future and these new shipyards will end up having lost money once again. The shadow of the devastation caused by the glut some years ago is still with the shipping industry.
 

by78

General
Is China able to double its shipbuilding capacity? China's population is way bigger than that of Korea, but shipbuilding industry is just slightly bigger in terms of tonnage.

Hey Peter2018, just how many times are you going to obsess over South Korea? Country comparisons are forbidden! Please stick with political threads and leave the flagship forums to adults.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
There are many shipyards around the world, including in China, that closed in the last ten years due to a glut in shipping capacity and ship building. Ship building is like the fabs in the semiconductor industry --- capital intensive, easy to lose money, requires plenty of orders to survive. That's how the commercial shipbuilding industry in the US and UK got decimated over the decades in the first place.

Even shipyards in Korea are being consolidated because they are losing money, and Japan is well off from its peak during the '70s. Remember Hanjin? Their enormous shipyard in Subic Bay in the Philippines were closed.

Like semiconductor fabs, you cannot build shipyards with the huge 500 meter long plus drydocks to build the megamaxes overnight. These things take years to plan, sites specially selected and are massive infrastructure projects on their own right. The fear is that when you build the new shipyards, who is able to forecast that we might have a glut in ships and shipbuilding in the future and these new shipyards will end up having lost money once again. The shadow of the devastation caused by the glut some years ago is still with the shipping industry.
@Tam how many more years can China commercial shipyard sustain its growth. I fear a glut is coming.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
@Tam how many more years can China commercial shipyard sustain its growth. I fear a glut is coming.

Likely for a while as many ships are being replaced. The replacement age of a commercial ship isn't as old as a warship, and its much less. So you get a rapid turnover. Tightening green regulations means dirtier, smokier ships are going to be retired sooner, which is also partly the reason why freight rates are rising due to the increased ship attrition. The higher prices of steel also incentives earlier ship retirement for scrapping.

So with the tightening regulations, this spurs new builds, or refitting older ships with scrubbers (something to take out the pollutants). There are a number of shipyards in China that specialize in the maintenance, repair and refit of ships, and they are busy.

It also depends on the shipowners, some of which are financial institutions themselves, can avail of loans for these newbuild orders. This points to the banks, and to the Chinese state banks, as they control the spigot for this.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
You all have seen USN and PLAN hospital ships before, but have you seen an all civilian hospital ship? The design of this ship reminds me of the PLAN pennant 88 and 89 barracks ships.

The world's largest civilian hospital ship, the Global Mercy, has completed its sea trials and will be first deployed in Africa. The ship is a shining example when the world decides to get together to solve a common problem.

"The Global Mercy represents an international collaboration. With an overall length of 174-meters, a beam of 28.6 meters, with a Gross Tonnage of 37,000, the ship is a tailored Passenger Ship-class vessel. As the first of its kind, the ship has undergone construction at Tianjin Xingang Shipyard, with project management by
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AB of Gothenburg, Sweden, and construction design by
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of Finland. The French ship brokerage company
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(BRS) was instrumental in helping negotiate the contract."

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Global-Mercy-Exterior-3-1024x683.jpgGlobal-Mercy-Exterior-2-1024x683.jpg1 (2).jpegCRUISE_sea_trials_Global_Mercy.jpgGlobal-Mercy_2874-1024x683.jpgc6b7893847f472af76ac1499192a0cfb_1200x630.jpg
 
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