.....
Upsides and Downsides
The fact that Russia’s strategic rationale for carrier acquisition is tenuous may actually speak in favor of foreign acquisition. Unlike the United States and (apparently) China, Russia will have no need for the long-term infrastructure needed to maintain a modern carrier fleet. As many countries have done in the past, Russia could even outsource downstream maintenance and refurbishment work to China. And there is no question that China can churn out a carrier faster than Russia can build one, and probably at a higher quality of construction, given the extensive experience of its shipbuilders.
For China, the upsides would also be clear; the construction of a Russian carrier would further the development of infrastructure and human capital necessary to build future carriers. It would help cement the emerging Moscow-Beijing security relationship, and offer deeper insight into the proprietary technologies that Russia might wish to install on the carrier. It would give China greater administrative experience on the international warship-building market.
The only downside for China would be that a Russian carrier would take up space and industrial capacity in Chinese yards, but this is a small price to pay. The downsides for Russia are more palpable; an aircraft carrier purchased from China still costs money, and still requires a long-term investment in maintenance and modernization. Russian prestige might also take a hit; as Kofman suggests, “over time Russia will become more comfortable importing Chinese components, but this will take years to overcome pride and stigma. The Russian Navy, like most navies, suffers from its own megalomania and big ship dreams that budgets have to contain.” Gorenburg adds, “the visuals of Russia buying from China vs. selling to China would cement the image shift to junior partner.”
Getting Real
To be sure, there would be many obstacles to overcome. But Russia has made extensive use of Kuznetsov, the lack of a compelling strategic rationale notwithstanding. As the carrier grows older, it will likely become less useful for the prestige cruises that the Kremlin enjoys. Any substantial gap between Kuznetsov and the next Russian carrier (if there is one) would be devastating for training. Even acquiring a ship of the Kuznetsov-Liaoning type, which China can obviously build, would be an improvement for Russia. News of a Russian order from a Chinese yard would be surprising, but not shocking.