"," by Michelle Wiese Bockmann, Lloyd's List, Wednesday, April 2, 2008 (via LexisNexis News):
More at the link. Predictions of a possible "Shipbuilding Bubble" about to burst are not without foundation, and the consequences of such an event would be serious. But there has yet to be a rash of orders cancellations; right now, it's fear of what could be, rather than what is, for the moment. Still, with new and untried shipyards popping up all over southern and eastern China, and overwhelmingly dependent upon export orders at that, the industry is not necessarily on the soundest possible footing.
Until the sub-prime crisis began sweeping Western financial markets late in 2007, there was a frenzy of orders to yards in South Korea, China and Japan. But the credit crunch has seen orders slow, leaving a swollen orderbook, tighter lending criteria, and forecasts of newbuilding cancellations and forced resales.
Financial uncertainties have combined with other factors to exacerbate already established delays in Chinese shipyards: there are widespread shortages of skilled labour, marine machinery and steel plate needed to construct the vessels.
"Delays in delivery of capesize vessels (from China) will be no more than a year, because most are being built at relatively reliable yards," a representative from a mid-sized South Korea shipyard told Lloyd's List.
"But this alone could seriously affect the balance of capesize demand and supply from 2010."
More at the link. Predictions of a possible "Shipbuilding Bubble" about to burst are not without foundation, and the consequences of such an event would be serious. But there has yet to be a rash of orders cancellations; right now, it's fear of what could be, rather than what is, for the moment. Still, with new and untried shipyards popping up all over southern and eastern China, and overwhelmingly dependent upon export orders at that, the industry is not necessarily on the soundest possible footing.