Chinese shipbuilding industry

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
tphuang said:
you don't need to do something like that

just impose fee on all Boeing aircraft that land on China and US govt will surrender on this one.

Of course, whether China would do this is a different story
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That would be counterproductive, because China doesn't have an alternative to Boeing airliners which can be ramped up quickly.
It'll just end up as an extra tax passed onto the airline passengers, and everyone knows it.


Remember that there is literally a 10 year waiting list at Airbus and Boeing.
Sure, you can jump the queue if you pay more or convince the manufacturer to slot you in early.
But it's still a 10 year waiting list for a new customer order.
 
tphuang

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
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AndrewS said:
That would be counterproductive, because China doesn't have an alternative to Boeing airliners which can be ramped up quickly.
It'll just end up as an extra tax passed onto the airline passengers, and everyone knows it.


Remember that there is literally a 10 year waiting list at Airbus and Boeing.
Sure, you can jump the queue if you pay more or convince the manufacturer to slot you in early.
But it's still a 10 year waiting list for a new customer order.
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Why don't you take a look at how many aircraft China is taking from Boeing this year before you say something like that.

Shipbuilding is a major industry for China. If America does something drastic like this, China would simply invite more outrageous actions if it does not do something major
 
L

LuzinskiJ

Junior Member
Registered Member
lcloo said:
China-US trade (both import & export) accounted to only 11.2% of China's international trade in 2023. So the effect of imposing extra port charges to Chinese ships has less impact than most people think.
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Moreover, given that China-built ships transport goods from countries other than China to the USA, wouldn't tacking on port fees on those ships further increase inflation in the US as that would translate to something akin to a tariff on the Rest of the World?
 
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canonicalsadhu

Junior Member
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
If you look at port container traffic in 2022, you get the following figures

China+HK: 247 Million TEU
SE Asia + East Asia (exc CN/HK): 141 Million TEU
US: 38 Million TEU
Other: 118 Million TEU

So you can see China and HK is almost half of all container traffic in the world

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Remember that container ships typically call at a large number of ports.
And typically sea freight costs make up a small fraction of the overall cost.

So my gut tells me that if China starts imposing steadily rising port fees on ships not built in China, the demand for Chinese exports will still remain, and it works out better to buy more Chinese ships to ensure you don't get charged those port fees.

Alternatively, instead of charging fees for foreign-built ships, they could offer discounts to Chinese-built ships. You get the same effect.

But is there any point?

The latest data indicates that China obtained 75% of all ship orders this year.
Plus the US only accounts for 7% of global container trade.
So whatever tariffs the US does implement won't change the big picture
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Exactly. I don't see how this policy will affect China's shipbuilding. I mean if shipping companies will have, for example, 25% non-Chinese ships and 75% Chinese ships in their fleet, they will simply use the non-Chinese ships to ship to US, and Chinese ships to everywhere else.
 
J

jli88

Junior Member
Registered Member
vincent said:
Please read my post again. China can charge extra port fees for non-Chinese built ships. Chinese-built ones don’t get charged.
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However, this would invite retaliation from say Korea, Japan, Europe or even other countries.

The US is gearing to divide the world in which China and a few other states can be excluded and US and its allies create a new and separate economic, tech system. Since however, the US, along with its allies still are the vast chunk of global economy, science and technology etc. this will be severe for China. Hence, Chinese leadership has now been actively trying to court countries and trying to negate this decoupling.

I don't think this measure will have much impact. Maybe around 10-15% of the world's ships ferry between US and non-US ports, this demand can simply be met by non-Chinese ships. Companies will be incentivized to just re route ships such that Chinese ships don't service US ports. What should be paid attention to is the orderbook, new orders, and new orders in technologically advanced categories.
 
vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
jli88 said:
However, this would invite retaliation from say Korea, Japan, Europe or even other countries.

The US is gearing to divide the world in which China and a few other states can be excluded and US and its allies create a new and separate economic, tech system. Since however, the US, along with its allies still are the vast chunk of global economy, science and technology etc. this will be severe for China. Hence, Chinese leadership has now been actively trying to court countries and trying to negate this decoupling.
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Decoupling with the West is happening whether you like it or not. Just look at David Goldman’s latest chart on China’s trade
 
vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
AndrewS said:
But is there any point?

The latest data indicates that China obtained 75% of all ship orders this year.
Plus the US only accounts for 7% of global container trade.
So whatever tariffs the US does implement won't change the big picture
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Yes there is. If China doesn’t charge extra port fees for non-Chinese-built ships, shipping companies will reduce orders from Chinese shipyards. The reason is fairly simple: non-Chinese-built ships offer the maximum flexibility due to the fact they don’t get charged extra port fees from both China and the US.
 
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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
canonicalsadhu said:
Exactly. I don't see how this policy will affect China's shipbuilding. I mean if shipping companies will have, for example, 25% non-Chinese ships and 75% Chinese ships in their fleet, they will simply use the non-Chinese ships to ship to US, and Chinese ships to everywhere else.
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This will greatly raise shipping costs to the US, thus increase the cost of products overall in the US and raise inflation.

Previously, the US sanctioned a Dalian based oil shipping arm of COSCO for shipping Iranian crude. Then for some reason, transport costs of oil to the US rose. The sanctions were lifted in about three weeks.

Ports along the US west coast cannot be serviced by the latest cutting edge mega containerships because these ships are too big for these ports whose infrastructure is deficient and backward in comparison to the latest Chinese ports. Yet at the same time, the biggest Jones Act ship is far too small to serve these ports economically with Asia routes. So what are you going to use to cover the 4000 to 16,000 TEU gap? Korea and Japan likes to build the mega sized ones. This gap is now currently served by smaller Chinese shipbuilders.

Conversely, the increase of shipping costs can also make the cost of US exports uncompetitive and expensive.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
tphuang said:
Why don't you take a look at how many aircraft China is taking from Boeing this year before you say something like that.

Shipbuilding is a major industry for China. If America does something drastic like this, China would simply invite more outrageous actions if it does not do something major
Click to expand...

It's not about new Boeing airliner deliveries.
Every new Boeing airliner gets added to the existing fleet somewhere.

So if you start taxing Boeing-made airliners with additional airport fees, there are too many of them to replace for the Chinese market.

Very roughly speaking, Boeing and Airbus have a global duopoly with almost half of all existing airliners flying.
And it will take some years yet before COMAC can ramp up.

I agree that China should respond if Chinese ships face additional port fees, but additional airport fees for Boeing airliners looks counterproductive.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
You know the ban hammer will be dropped on COMAC as well sooner or later. The West don't even want Chinese EVs. Do you really think they will want Chinese airliners in their market? I think China should just preempt future sanctions instead of remaining passive.
The government should just forbid the importation of all Boeing aircraft into China. They can just claim the aircraft are unsafe. Which they are.
They can also cut imports of food from the US as usual.
 
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