Chinese semiconductor thread II

diadact

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Can Huawei/SMIC enter risk production for 5nm next year? @tokenanalyst

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On the EUV front, Huawei is allegedly pursuing two paths. Its
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involves laser-produced plasma (LPP), which, similar to ASML’s approach, uses lasers to strike tin droplets, creating intense EUV light for etching chip features. Huawei reportedly has a prototype under testing, aiming for 5 nm production by 2026 and volume manufacturing by 2027.
1734748989918.png
 

tphuang

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tokenanalyst

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Can Huawei/SMIC enter risk production for 5nm next year? @tokenanalyst

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There is no way to know given the secrecy inside China, there is rumor that they are working on it, probably replacing EUV LELE with 193i SAQP in the interconnects. They they surprised everyone with 7nm so is probably that more surprises hit 2025.
 

pesoleati

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Let me guess. Chinese cannot make real progress in DUV and EUV. Current 7NM is really living on the imported scanners before the cut off. Eventually they will run out of the parts and second hand equipment. Their chip making capability for mass production with reasonable yield will stop at 7nm for the next 20 years. China has lost the new cold war ...
 

tphuang

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All that picture shows is just complaining about SMIC relying on foreign equipment to produce foreign chips. And also that huawei fabs haven’t reached their desired production level for 28nm or 14nm.

I read the entire thing and can’t really see what’s gloomy about it. Seems like the people who write this kind of stuff don’t have an idea of how this all works.

they think you just put money in and voila results come out 2 years later.
 

OppositeDay

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All that picture shows is just complaining about SMIC relying on foreign equipment to produce foreign chips. And also that huawei fabs haven’t reached their desired production level for 28nm or 14nm.

I read the entire thing and can’t really see what’s gloomy about it. Seems like the people who write this kind of stuff don’t have an idea of how this all works.

they think you just put money in and voila results come out 2 years later.

It looks to me like it's written by a retail investor with a lot of freetime and runs a investment chat group or something.
 

tokenanalyst

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First of all that looks like a lot of social media crap.
Second of all I REALLY FAIL to understand what this company called SiCarrier has anything to do with WFE manufacturing and probably the managers of that company are scratching their head thinking how they ended in this situation.
This is not equipment used in Integrated Circuit Manufacturing. This is used in the fabrication IGBTs for industrial applications and EVs
1734758998319.png The post said that SiCarrier is making Ion Implanters without providing any evidence. There are three Ion Implanters manufacturers in China: CETC, Kingstone (Wanye) and SIRUI and you can basically trace back the origins of the three companies and none are associated with this SiCarrier company. by the way CETC and Wanye are used by SMIC.

Then is PWX fab that I have no idea how is associated with Huawei but in the real context is a small fab that is almost irrelevant compared to the other big fabs. I think they planned to make 45nm and then to move on with 28nm but still fail to understand how this small fab is going to lead to oversupply and if is managed by Huawei is probably that is only for Huawei products.

The post complained some fab using foreign tools I guess, that I think is valid argument and do think the bidding process should be only for domestic companies, but Mainland China semiconductor industry is heavily modeled after the Taiwanese semiconductor industry which is in my opinion is pretty stagnant in term of innovation, you will never see nanoimprint lithography take roots in Taiwan, this is a technology that you will see more in Japan and Chinese managers are pretty naive-liberals, so for a company like SMIC every tool they replace have to do the exact same thing that the tool replaced, but I do think that US sanctions are having a impact on how SMIC is approaching innovation and you start to see it in their investments and patents. Is very hard to change old attitudes.
 
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