TrendForce's summary of top fabs in Q3. SMIC is really gaining on Samsung.
A big issue is how to measure the market share of Samsung's foundry business by itself. Excluding both memory and their IDM business.TrendForce's summary of top fabs in Q3. SMIC is really gaining on Samsung.
A big issue is how to measure the market share of Samsung's foundry business by itself. Excluding both memory and their IDM business.
Samsung make SoCs for their consumer products unit, at least they used to, would you count that as foundry revenue?
I have seen a lot of numbers where everything Samsung makes is jumbled up together including memory.
I would not be surprised to see SMIC surpass Samsung in foundry revenue. SMIC will surpass Samsung in wafers per month even earlier than that. Maybe in a year or two, when SMIC's 28nm gigafabs come fully online, if they have not done it already.
I expect Hua Hong to surpass GlobalFoundries and UMC in wafers per month and revenue after Hua Hong Wuxi's third fab is fully operational. Right now Hua Hong announced start of mass production on their second fab at Wuxi and construction of the third fab shell has not even started yet.
TSMC has lots of advantages. They have fully depreciated older fabs. They can provide their customer with a complete foundry solution which includes even packaging. But US sanctions on TSMC's supply of chips to the huge mainland Chinese market will erode some of these advantages.TSMC has a fairly high gross margin, which we expect to get squeezed as competition becomes more exciting. So their revenue will decline rapidly, even if they are making the same amount of chips.
I don't think HLMC revenues are counted in Huahong's revenue as of now. Maybe that will change when HH buys back HLMC and report it as part of their earnings reportA big issue is how to measure the market share of Samsung's foundry business by itself. Excluding both memory and their IDM business.
Samsung make SoCs for their consumer products unit, at least they used to, would you count that as foundry revenue?
I have seen a lot of numbers where everything Samsung makes is jumbled up together including memory.
I would not be surprised to see SMIC surpass Samsung in foundry revenue. SMIC will surpass Samsung in wafers per month even earlier than that. Maybe in a year or two, when SMIC's 28nm gigafabs come fully online, if they have not done it already.
I expect Hua Hong to surpass GlobalFoundries and UMC in wafers per month and revenue after Hua Hong Wuxi's third fab is fully operational.
Right now Hua Hong announced start of mass production on their second fab at Wuxi. Construction of the planned third fab's shell has not even begun yet.
Each Hua Hong fab at Wuxi will have close to 100,000 wpm capacity with 12" wafers. Three fabs should be around 300,000 wpm. Hua Hong also operates 8" fabs which can produce 79,000 wpm in 12" wafer equivalents. Hua Hong's HLMC subsidiary can produce 75,000 wpm 12" wafers.
GlobalFoundries should have around 305,000 wpm capacity with 12" wafer equivalents. UMC should have around 340,000 wpm capacity with 12" wafer equivalents.
GlobalFoundries might be able to command higher prices per wafer because of specialty SOI and FinFET processes. But UMC's FinFET process seems to have next to no customers. So I expect them to be hit the hardest by the new mainland Chinese competition.
TSMC has a fairly high gross margin, which we expect to get squeezed as competition becomes more exciting. So their revenue will decline rapidly, even if they are making the same amount of chips.
Isn't SMIC's 7nm fab also a subsidiary that SMIC only partially owns? Are the 7nm revenue included fully in the SMIC numbers?I don't think HLMC revenues are counted in Huahong's revenue as of now. Maybe that will change when HH buys back HLMC and report it as part of their earnings report
I do wonder if these report miss on some of the smaller Chinese fabs, which probably add together to more than HH and Nexchip's total foundry revenue. Like for example, SMEC, CanSemi, Shanghai Jita, CR Micro, Sanan and a bunch more.