Chinese semiconductor thread II

[tphuang]

Danxi Tech is another domestic GaN producer

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said to have hit 3 million in sales now, producing power chips for 100V, 150V and 650V

mostly for charging related stuff on phones and other consumer electronics.

Still waiting for news from Innoscience. They are the behemoth in GaN

 

[Wrought]

I have no idea what you are talking about. It took them just a couple of years to outcompete foreign brands. A lot longer than it will take them in semiconductor. Stick to what you know

You think domestic manufacturers will be able to capture a dominant market share in just a couple years? That seems far more optimistic than anything I have read. Catching up to advanced technology, yes, but not replacing it everywhere. Technological achievement is one thing, scaling production is another. How do you outcompete foreign brands if supply simply cannot keep up with demand? Whomever you can't supply must be supplied with imports, unless they are not supplied at all.

My point was that foreign brands will remain in China for years to come, because there isn't enough supply to go around. Because it will take time to replace everything everywhere. I don't think that should be controversial, it's just a fact.

AGAIN, you talk like if is a normal market environment, IS NOT, do you think that Huawei want to enter the semiconductor market? NO THEY DIDN'T WANTED, but they HAVE learned to fab semiconductors in a few years. SAME GOES FOR SMIC, YMTC, JINHUA , CMXT, they are CO-DEVELOPING with Chinese equipment companies and Chinese research institutions the tools they need FAST, in a few years. THEY DON'T HAVE THE LUXURY TO WAIT UNTIL SMEE DEVELOPS ON ITS OWN A SCANNER, whatever they like SMEE or not they HAVE TO COLABORATE TO GET THIS IMMERSION SCANNER WORKING FAST, A LOT OF THE NEW TOOLS THAT WE HAVE POSTED ARE CODEVELOP WITH THE FABS TO REPLACE US TOOLS THAT THEY WOLDN'T BE ABLE TO GET.

Exports controls are pushing Chinese companies to localize whatever they want or not.

Export controls can align incentives and add momentum and force adjustments, but they cannot magically change reality. Research still needs to be done, factories still need to be built, and all the rest. Will it be done faster? Of course, but it will not happen overnight. And it will certainly not proliferate to the entire market overnight. Localizing everything will take time, and asking for more restrictions on an already restricted sector does not strike me as practical. Expecting a miracle is not realistic and will only result in disappointment.

I am not saying you are wrong, just that you are impatient.

 

[tokenanalyst]

but they cannot magically change reality.

It did, ironically. Change the market dynamics almost magically.

I not impatient, I don't own fabs. Huawei, SMIC, YMTC and others are. I just showing that the market dynamics have change and things are not being done in the same way as in the past were Chinese companies INCLUDING HUAWEI didn't want to even touch anything local.

If Huawei didn't have made that huge investment into the semiconductor industry they would have been die long time ago.

This is why I didn't wanted to get rid of the previous thread, people come here pretty blind. in the almost 4000 pages of this thread we have seen everything, 3 companies making domestic Ion implanters, multiple types of deposition equipment companies, AMEC NAURA sales breaking records ,increasing number of companies making ALD equipment, multiple metrology companies, getting closer and closer on EUV, increasing number of equipment manufacturers expanding their manufacturing base, increased investment one semiconductor materials,bigger number of companies getting into equipment part manufacturing, we went from 2 companies making photoresist to multiple companies making photoresist and so on and so on and so on, in just 4 years WHAT MORE EVIDENCE YOU WANT.​

 

[Wrought]

It did, ironically. Change the market dynamics almost magically.

I not impatient, I don't own fabs. Huawei, SMIC, YMTC and others are. I just showing that the market dynamics have change and things are not being done in the same way as in the past were Chinese companies INCLUDING HUAWEI didn't want to even touch anything local.

If Huawei didn't have made that huge investment into the semiconductor industry they would have been die long time ago.


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This is why I didn't wanted to get rid of the previous thread, people come here pretty blind. in the almost 4000 pages of this thread we have seen everything, 3 companies making domestic Ion implanters, multiple types of deposition equipment companies, AMEC NAURA sales breaking records ,increasing number of companies making ALD equipment, multiple metrology companies, getting closer and closer on EUV, increasing number of equipment manufacturers expanding their manufacturing base, increased investment one semiconductor materials,bigger number of companies getting into equipment part manufacturing, we went from 2 companies making photoresist to multiple companies making photoresist and so on and so on and so on, in just 4 years WHAT MORE EVIDENCE YOU WANT.​

Again, you are correct about the achivements of the local industry in the past few years. I have read every single post in the previous thread. None of that changes the fact that 2023 imports of foreign equipment were at record highs. Folks were grumbling about these imports, calling for restrictions, and so forth. But that is not realistic. Companies are not importing equipment just to throw it away. Domestic supply is not sufficient to meet domestic demand, it is nowhere even close. Pick SMEE, AMEC, NAURA, whichever you want, and look at their output vs what their buyers need.

The ability of Chinese manufacturers is not in doubt here. They are moving as fast as they can, but it is not fast enough to fulfill the needs of the entire market. Which is why imports are and will continue to be necessary. Again, this is not permanent but foreign dependencies will only be eliminated gradually over time.

 

[tokenanalyst]

ACM Research Shanghai launched 16 types of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in just 3 years, if we take in to account R&D, how much? 5 years?




I think this unwanted competition would be terrifying for any company that is fighting to keep their market share with the hands tight in their back.

 

[tokenanalyst]

Companies are not importing equipment just to throw it away. Domestic supply is not sufficient to meet domestic demand, it is nowhere even close.

In some cases they are importing equipment for parts and to have backup tools to keep current fabs running. So is more than meet the eye.

 

[tokenanalyst]

Again, you are correct about the achivements of the local industry in the past few years. I have read every single post in the previous thread. None of that changes the fact that 2023 imports of foreign equipment were at record highs. Folks were grumbling about these imports, calling for restrictions, and so forth. But that is not realistic. Companies are not importing equipment just to throw it away. Domestic supply is not sufficient to meet domestic demand, it is nowhere even close. Pick SMEE, AMEC, NAURA, whichever you want, and look at their output vs what their buyers need.

The ability of Chinese manufacturers is not in doubt here. They are moving as fast as they can, but it is not fast enough to fulfill the needs of the entire market. Which is why imports are and will continue to be necessary. Again, this is not permanent but foreign dependencies will only be eliminated gradually over time.

I am not referring about just current capacity but the speed of the development, every single Chinese semiconductor equipment, part, materials company is expanding manufacturing capacity pretty fast. Everyone in mainstream media is talking about the massive increase of wafer capacity in China but nobody is talking about the also massive increase in manufacturing bases of China equipment, parts and material suppliers to the point that some companies in China now they feel confident enough to go overseas.​

 

[Wrought]

ACM Research Shanghai launched 16 types of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in just 3 years, if we take in to account R&D, how much? 5 years?

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I think this unwanted competition would be terrifying for any company that is fighting to keep their market share with the hands tight in their back.

Right, and a few pages back there was the article about imports of 400 Dutch lithography machines over the same five years. Which of course needs all the associated mask, metrology, cleaning, etc, equipment to go along with it. Can ACM supply all of that? Or would you prefer domestic manufacturers have no equipment instead of foreign equipment? Competition is frightening, but that's what government support is for.

In some cases they are importing equipment for parts and to have backup tools to keep current fabs running. So is more than meet the eye.

Yes, this is true. But again, should they simply stop running the production lines until domestic equipment is ready?

I am not referring about just current capacity but the speed of the development, every single Chinese semiconductor equipment, part, materials company is expanding manufacturing capacity pretty fast. Everyone in mainstream media is talking about the massive increase of wafer capacity in China but nobody is talking about the also massive increase in manufacturing bases of China equipment, parts and material suppliers to the point that some companies in China now they feel confident enough to go overseas.

And once those new supplies become available, they can be used to replace foreign imports. I don't see the problem here.

 

[tphuang]

You think domestic manufacturers will be able to capture a dominant market share in just a couple years? That seems far more optimistic than anything I have read. Catching up to advanced technology, yes, but not replacing it everywhere. Technological achievement is one thing, scaling production is another. How do you outcompete foreign brands if supply simply cannot keep up with demand? Whomever you can't supply must be supplied with imports, unless they are not supplied at all.

I'm saying you cannot compare this to EVs or solar, where they caught up in a couple of years.

I don't know what your other statements are about.

My point was that foreign brands will remain in China for years to come, because there isn't enough supply to go around. Because it will take time to replace everything everywhere. I don't think that should be controversial, it's just a fact.

I don't think I said anything contrary to that. But that really is kind of meaningless.

Anyone can see what the all time high in 2023 equipment imports are about. They are stocking up ahead of the sanctions.

Anyhow, this seems like a meaningless discussion, let's move on to something more productive

 

[tokenanalyst]

Which of course needs all the associated mask, metrology, cleaning, etc, equipment to go along with it. Can ACM supply all of that?

Something tell me that you haven't read the 4000+ previous post.

That would be supply by: Kingsemi (immersion Track),

ACM (track and cleaning)

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DJEL (Metrology), Raintree scientific instruments (Metrology), Shanghai Jingce(Metrology) and many others.

And SMIC, YMTC and other have their own mask operations.

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We have to establish lines here, We know that some companies in China cannot get US made tools, Huawei, YMTC, SMIC, Jinhua? Right?
We know even if they can get the tools, a lot of these companies don't want to get stuck doing the same 28nm node in logic, 18nm in memory and the 128L in NAND? Right.
Is pretty obvious that these companies are working hard with Chinese suppliers to replace US tools and even some Europeans and Japanese tools as soon as possible because the want to advance.