Chinese semiconductor thread II
- Thread starter vincent
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JSSIA: China’s semiconductor equipment sales revenue in 2023 will be 80.5 billion yuan
Semiconductor equipment is an important supporting industry for the entire semiconductor industry. In the medium to long term, relevant semiconductor equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit deeply from the accelerated tightening of export control policies for advanced chip manufacturing equipment, and the localization rate of semiconductor equipment is expected to accelerate. In 2023, in the face of the world economic recession and the increasing external pressure from the Sino-US trade war, China's semiconductor equipment industry continued to maintain a rapid development trend driven by the domestic market.
According to JSSIA data analysis and compilation, in 2023, China's semiconductor equipment sales revenue will be 80.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 89.4%, and the domestic market share will reach about 28%. The export delivery value of semiconductor equipment is 8.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106%; the localization rate of China's semiconductor equipment will reach 47% in 2023, an increase of 17 percentage points from the localization rate of 30% in 2022.
As Sino-US trade friction accelerates, the localization of the entire semiconductor supply chain is imperative. Driven by demand and the wave of domestic substitution, along with the continuous implementation and implementation of national encouraged industrial policies and industrial investment funds, such as increasing financial support, introducing preferential tax policies, strengthening intellectual property protection, etc., these will help With the continued development of the semiconductor equipment market, the semiconductor equipment industry is facing huge development opportunities.
don't think just about 2024, think much further ahead.
Last year, Huawei sold less than 40m phones. This year, it will probably sell 60-70million? It wants to get to 200million per year by 2028.
Let's say it uses YMTC and CXMT memory chips for the most part. By most optimistic estimate, the two of them combined will hit 300k wpm this year.
That sounds like a lot until you do a little googling and see that Micron and SK have 3million wpm of capacity.
So they probably need to add 100k wpm a year for several years. That's a whole lot of equipment they need to buy
YMTC/CXMT supply memory to Huawei's flagship mobiles, if this confirms. then it is a declaration of War against US sanctions. this is another clear cut indication. both of these companies secured domestic supply chain..
YMTC is already blacklisted.. CXMT exempted for older nodes but won't spare this time.
so Billions of dollars worth equipment pie will goes to domestic companies ...
YMTC can already make 256 layers. what is the progress on CXMT? it must be on US entity list. what type of DUV does it have and i presume it cant buy 2000i anymore due to sanctions right?
i
========== 2024year 2025year
SMIC ~6% -> ? ?
YMTC ~6% -> ? ?
CXMT ~3% -> ? ?
currently i think ymtc 3%
How are the chip lines currently under construction expected to have market share in 2024 and 2025 after completion?
1. Market share of these Chinese company in chips will only go up.
2. Where that number stabilizes at, depends on how aggressively Chinese businesses get rid of Western branded chips.
Makes sense? A logical way to look at it.
i assume they must have stocked up quite a few machines. And that they are working on validating SMEE machines
interesting, says here that Xiaomi have developed their first SoC. Getting taped out now. Says to be comparable to 9000S in performance. Which means, it's probably good for medium end models in Xiaomi's lineup