Chinese semiconductor thread II

[tphuang]

Sir you're correct NOT on P70 PRO but maybe in MATE 70X

Specifications for Huawei's next Kirin SoC have shown up on

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(H/T

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). It'll launch as a successor to the HiSilicon

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, which was revealed to be the

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by an earlier leak. It'll be one of the first mobile APs manufactured on SMIC's 5 nm node. Exactly how SMIC plans to operate a 5 nm class node without access to EUV machines remains a mystery.

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14 hours ago — It features an 8-core CPU with custom cores, a Balong 5G modem, and an in-house ISP/NPU/GPU. Performance-wise, it trades blows with the ...

It has been confirmed by multiple people on weibo, who seems to have good sources, that P70 (the whole line) will be using 9000S, maybe some overclocked version.

I don't quite understand why people are so eager to jump on to some next version. It takes time for SMIC to move on to more dense process. It takes time for Huawei to improve their core, GPU, CPU, NPU design. By all report, this is for M70.

There are 6 months between when P70 and M70 released. If Huawei wants to make a big bang M70, it will want to firm up its next generation SoC at last possible moment. Putting out something 6 months sooner will just mean producing it on a less stable production process and creating something that's not as good. And that will just lead to less capacity elsewhere.

 

[JPaladin32]

rumor: this is the point of Kirin 9000 overclocking.

View attachment 127109

This is fake news I think. Many people on Chinese social media have pointed out that the CPU topology and frequencies from this rumor are the same as Dimensity 9300, and this score was likely obtained by throttling a D9300 phone. Also, it's unlikely that the codename of the next phone is ALN-AL11. Mate 60 Pro is ALN-AL00, Pro+ is ALN-AL10. The next one is probably something like ALN-AL20 but not AL11.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

It looks like servicing existing scanners will be the next front in the chip war:

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Not sure how important this is. Presumably the servicing can be taken over by local companies but what about software updates?

that means ASML IP is forfeit.

not by decree, but because of 2 simple factors:

1. to service wear components, some degree of reverse engineering will be necessary, if only to get the dimensions right.

2. if ASML can neither sell nor service Chinese equipment then it will be forced to pull out of the market, giving it no options in seriously retaliating.

 

[tphuang]

maybe they are finally going to be able to enforce this now?

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China's industry ministry in late December issued a statement with three separate lists of CPUs, operating systems and centralised database deemed "safe and reliable" for three years after the publication date, all from Chinese companies, Reuters checks showed.

It's kind of embarrassing how long this has taken. It's almost likely you need to keep getting sanctioned before you realize foreign systems are not reliable. One thing is for sure, the development of many Huawei products has made this possible

 

[european_guy]

2. if ASML can neither sell nor service Chinese equipment then it will be forced to pull out of the market, giving it no options in seriously retaliating.

If ASML stopped servicing SMIC in November last year, then ASML will leave China market. There is no other long term option.

The only question is when. ASML said they can service companies other than SMIC advanced nodes until 31 December 2024. China has one year to figure out how to deal with the enormous ASML installed base of one thousand machines and setup one or more parallel service companies, eventually poaching from ASML employees. The needed spare parts, if technically feasible, will be locally produced, any IP argumentation is moot at this point. ASML cannot really sue Chinese fabs in a China court while they refuse servicing their customers, it would be a joke...and suing a Chinese local part supplier in a US court would be a even bigger joke, anything the judges would come out with would not be enforceable.

If China top leadership accepted to talk with Dutch officials specifically on this topic, it means this is a serious thing.

I wrote few weeks ago that ASML huge installed base will remain a liability for China for many years to come...it seems it will really be.

BTW if US succeeded forcing ASML to stop servicing for SMIC advanced lines, I expect also Japan materials are going to be blocked or even already blocked for those same advanced lines.

OTH SMIC did not say anything about it in their last financial event, they even forecast an increase in revenues, and there are also many rumors of SMIC increasing production capaciy for 7nm. If this will be confirmed in the following months, then SMIC (together with Chinese supply chain) succeeded in self-sufficiency for 7nm, the most difficult of all. All other challenges are easier than this.

 

[Awenumick]

maybe they are finally going to be able to enforce this now?

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It's kind of embarrassing how long this has taken. It's almost likely you need to keep getting sanctioned before you realize foreign systems are not reliable. One thing is for sure, the development of many Huawei products has made this possible

Do we have access to that list?

 

[olalavn]

If ASML stopped servicing SMIC in November last year, then ASML will leave China market. There is no other long term option.

The only question is when. ASML said they can service companies other than SMIC advanced nodes until 31 December 2024. China has one year to figure out how to deal with the enormous ASML installed base of one thousand machines and setup one or more parallel service companies, eventually poaching from ASML employees. The needed spare parts, if technically feasible, will be locally produced, any IP argumentation is moot at this point. ASML cannot really sue Chinese fabs in a China court while they refuse servicing their customers, it would be a joke...and suing a Chinese local part supplier in a US court would be a even bigger joke, anything the judges would come out with would not be enforceable.

If China top leadership accepted to talk with Dutch officials specifically on this topic, it means this is a serious thing.

I wrote few weeks ago that ASML huge installed base will remain a liability for China for many years to come...it seems it will really be.

BTW if US succeeded forcing ASML to stop servicing for SMIC advanced lines, I expect also Japan materials are going to be blocked or even already blocked for those same advanced lines.

OTH SMIC did not say anything about it in their last financial event, they even forecast an increase in revenues, and there are also many rumors of SMIC increasing production capaciy for 7nm. If this will be confirmed in the following months, then SMIC (together with Chinese supply chain) succeeded in self-sufficiency for 7nm, the most difficult of all. All other challenges are easier than this.

They stopped giving away the theory, but they still sell lithography machines to SMIC and their team in China still maintains the equipment.

 

[Hood_Rat]

maybe they are finally going to be able to enforce this now?

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It's kind of embarrassing how long this has taken. It's almost likely you need to keep getting sanctioned before you realize foreign systems are not reliable. One thing is for sure, the development of many Huawei products has made this possible

It's just a generational mentality thing. The current peak career generation in the PRC is gen X and their entire world view was formulated in an era where the PRC and US were aligned against the USSR and the PRC was wholly dependent on foreign technology and investment. I'm sure you've encountered many ChinX from that generation who would rather die than give up buying overpriced handbags from France or constantly skyjack over Friends and McMansions.

The next generation of Chinese will not have the same slavish devotion to "mutual respect" and "win-win solutions" with China's "dear western partners" most likely.

 

[measuredingabens]

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High-security learning-based optical encryption assisted by disordered metasurface

Abstract
Artificial intelligence has gained significant attention for exploiting optical scattering for optical encryption. Conventional scattering media are inevitably influenced by instability or perturbations, and hence unsuitable for long-term scenarios. Additionally, the plaintext can be easily compromised due to the single channel within the medium and one-to-one mapping between input and output. To mitigate these issues, a stable spin-multiplexing disordered metasurface (DM) with numerous polarized transmission channels serves as the scattering medium, and a double-secure procedure with superposition of plaintext and security key achieves two-to-one mapping between input and output. In attack analysis, when the ciphertext, security key, and incident polarization are all correct, the plaintext can be decrypted. This system demonstrates excellent decryption efficiency over extended periods in noisy environments. The DM, functioning as an ultra-stable and active speckle generator, coupled with the double-secure approach, creates a highly secure speckle-based cryptosystem with immense potentials for practical applications.

 

[Franklin]

I read through thread. It seems to be that guy's proposed or what he thinks it can be rather than what it actually is.


oh gosh, the same old stupid line of if servicing stops, then machines will stop working. I wonder how SMSC has kept all those American machines operational for over a year or those ASML machine operational since November.

It's of course really sub-optimal to not have them be serviced, but machines can live without software updates. There is a reason SMIC bought all those ASML machines despite no assurances of continued servicing. It thinks it can operate them without servicing.

At some point, Chinese govt will need to start playing hardball. If ASML cannot service the machines it sold to China, then revoke patents and IPs that ASML has established in China.

Put huge tariffs on NXP chips and ASMI tools. This is ridiculous that you get run over by Netherlands of all places

Software update you can do without but what about spare parts.