Building an independent and controllable integrated circuit industry system: Reflections and suggestions on the development of China's integrated circuit industry during the "15th Five−Year Plan" period
View attachment 174749
This paper,
published originally on February 13, 2026, (it appears in
Volume 44, Issue 3 of
Science & Technology Review (《科技导报》), with the article spanning pages 34-49) is more authoritative than any announcement (as long as is not an official announcement by SMEE).
I cannot access the paper, but DeepSeek can make a summary:
# Summary: Building an independent and controllable integrated circuit industry system
## Authors and Publication
This paper was published in the journal *Science & Technology Review* (《科技导报》),
authored by nine leading figures in China's semiconductor industry. The author list includes Wang Yangyuan (Honorary Dean of Peking University's School of Integrated Circuits and co-founder of SMIC), Zhao Jinrong (Chairman of NAURA Technology Group), Chen Nanxiang (Chairman of Yangtze Memory Technologies Co., Ltd.), Liu Weiping (Chairman of Empyrean Technology), and other prominent scholars and industry executives.
## Background and Strategic Context
The paper is framed within the context of the 50-year Kondratiev wave economic cycle, identifying the information industry (with integrated circuits at its core) as the engine of the 5th long-wave economic cycle.
The authors argue that accelerating the development of China's information industry should be a top priority for the
"15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030). They emphasize this is necessary for maintaining GDP growth, improving public welfare, and ensuring national security, especially as modern warfare increasingly depends on electronic systems and chips.
Regarding the external environment, the paper notes that the United States has enacted multiple policies explicitly targeting China as a "strategic competitor," including the CHIPS and Science Act. Europe and Japan have also introduced semiconductor-related legislation. The authors conclude that China must "abandon illusions and prepare for struggle".
## Key Problems Identified
The paper identifies several critical issues plaguing China's IC industry:
### Small, Fragmented, and Weak Structure
- China has over 100 EDA companies, 116 packaging and testing companies, 185 wafer manufacturing equipment companies, 224 packaging equipment companies, and 3,626 design companies.
- Among design companies, 1,769 have annual sales below 10 million RMB, and 87.9% are small businesses with fewer than 100 employees.
- The authors argue that such fragmentation makes it impossible to compete head-on with industry giants like NVIDIA or Qualcomm.
### Lack of Integration Mechanisms
- There is an absence of effective fault-tolerance and trial-and-error mechanisms between upstream and downstream enterprises.
- The "mobilizing the entire nation's resources" approach has not been effectively translated into concrete implementation.
## Core Recommendations
### Create "China's ASML"
- The paper notes that ASML's EUV lithography machine has 100,000 components from 5,000 suppliers, with ASML serving primarily as an integrator.
- While China has achieved breakthrough progress in individual EUV components (laser light sources, moving platforms, and optical systems), the key challenge for the 15th Five-Year Plan period is integrating these into a complete, functional system.
- The authors call for a national-level integration mechanism where "the integrated" must transcend barriers of "fame and fortune" to allow unified coordination of capital and human resources.
### Address the "Three Key Cards"
The paper states that the US primarily restricts China's IC industry development through three leverage points:
1. Electronic Design Automation (EDA)
2. Equipment (especially EUV lithography)
3. Materials (including advanced silicon wafers)
The paper recommends prioritizing the resolution of the EUV, EDA, and silicon wafer issues during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.
## Development Goals for the 15th Five-Year Plan Period
The paper sets specific quantitative targets:
| Area | Target |
|-------|---------|
| Industry Ranking | Rank among top 3 countries globally in the IC industry |
| Self-Sufficiency Rate | 80% of chips demanded by the national economy (excluding re-export products), with gradual reduction of imports for low-to-mid-range products |
| 28 nm | Solidify independent and controllable full industrial chain |
| 14 nm | Achieve stable production capability |
| 7 nm | Initially complete construction and trial operation of a fully domestically produced production line |
| Public Platform | Build an advanced process-capable public R&D platform for new structures, materials, and processes |
| Original Innovation | Seek pioneering breakthroughs in certain areas of basic research |
Source:
## Concluding Statement
The paper concludes with an emphatic statement: "For the next five years, China's chip industry will be five years of 'sleeping on brushwood and tasting gall'; five years of discarding illusions and preparing for struggle; five years of securing a firm foothold in the mid-range and consolidating the domestic circulation market; five years of respecting scientific laws and dedicating efforts to basic research. Since core technologies cannot be bought, begged, or borrowed, then they can only be 'built through hard work.' ... there is no obstacle that can stop the Chinese nation's march toward rejuvenation".
## Significance
This paper represents a rare collective statement from China's top semiconductor industry leaders and academics, calling for a more aggressive, coordinated national strategy to achieve technological self-sufficiency in integrated circuits. According to news reports, it is viewed as a direct response to the US technology blockade and aligns closely with the 15th Five-Year Plan's strategic focus on technological self-reliance.
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The summary is worth reading. Regarding timeline I have verified with DS that the targets on 7,14 and 28nm are intended
for the end of the period (2030). Not currently achieved.
So
by 2030:
- 28nm fully consolidated and mature
- 14nm in production
- 7nm in trial operation
This is the paper.
My
speculation for 2026 is:
- 28nm should be in production with several lines by end 2026
- 14 should be in trial by end 2026, with early production 2027
- 7nm still in development
