Chinese semiconductor thread II

[Michael90]

American think tankers think that China is as stupid as America.

That Xi has decided to play his hand right now, only means that he is ready to accompany them all the way till (their) death.

Message is very clear, you completely ban me from semiconductors, I completely ban you from Rare Earths.

I have mastered IC tools, you didn't master RE supply chain -> I hold the high ground, ie. You are fcked

I agree that Chinese leadeds are much more careful in taking any radical measures than US leaders . So i was very surprised by this move of theirs, especially because it didnt apply only to US companies but to every other country in the world. Thats what im surprised about. I taught that even if they would have adopted such measures, it would have only applied to the US and her allies who followed US sanctions.
I think that's the most surprising thing about this new restriction is that it will apply to everybody. Thetr must be a goof reason chinese leaders are so confident in making this decision since they are usually known for their cautiousness. So lets what and see how this will play out. One thing is sure this decade will be the most interesting in the history of modern world since after WWII as the US tries to stop Chinas rise (and other emerging powers) by all means necessary .

 

[gelgoog]

China is already close to self sufficiency in production of blank wafers. I would say it will be fully self sufficient on them in 2 years.

With regards to photoresist, and semiconductor grade chemicals, which some US stooges think can be used as a chokehold on China, there seem to be viable local alternatives to pretty much everything. Just not enough production volume yet.

If they ban supply of parts to imported WFE I expect the industry in China to develop substitutes to keep the machines running.

I would say if they had waited another 2-4 years then China would be in a better position. But they probably think they have pushed the current situation as far as they can.
The US stooges finally realized Chinese WFE imports have not come significantly down like they expected and like I said here would happen.

 

[sunnymaxi]

But what explains the billions of usd of equipment, material, and chips that China is already buying.

that's correct. China buying a lot tools/equipment and materials from foreign companies. but you also need to see record number of fabs under construction in mainland. from logic to memory flash.

Chinese tools makers have record revenue in 2024, still China bought record tools/equipment from western firms in 2023-24.. its about stockpiling and fulfil the enormous demand. same with ASML Litho tools.

from next year onward, foreign tools purchase will massively slash down.

 

[tokenanalyst]

Let's assume that they are able to get everyone to cooperate, which mostly they will be able to do if they wanted.

If you have business in China you are bound to Chinese law.

I thought they are only in test runs, until now, no independent analysis body has found evidence of chinese lithography being used in 14nm processes.

Lithography is, pretty much as most of China semiconductor industry a black box in China, so no "independent body" is going to do nothing, well at least if they don't want to spend some time in a Chinese prison, I'm base in government documents where there state the commercialization and mass production of components for a immersion lithography machine for 14nm node process and less.

If it is required to maintain legacy fabs, wouldn't that still be an issue?

Would be an Issue for HHGrace but I think they will overcome it, no so much for SMIC and others who have spend years localizing their supply chain.

 

[gelgoog]

that's correct. China buying a lot tools/equipment and materials from foreign companies. but you also need to see record number of fabs under construction in mainland. from logic to memory flash.

Chinese tools makers have record revenue in 2024, still China bought record tools/equipment from western firms in 2023-24.. its about stockpiling and fulfil the enormous demand. same with ASML Litho tools.

from next year onward, foreign tools purchase will massively slash down.

According to my estimates the Chinese WFE makers will reach parity in terms of revenue vs Western ones in 4 years. By 2029.
There would be significant imports of foreign WFE until 2029 then imports would collapse with maybe the exception of lithography.
But if the West does ban all exports of 300mm WFE to China, then the West will lose 40% of its WFE revenues overnight. And the revenue crossover point could be 2027 instead of 2029.

 

[sunnymaxi]

Lithography is, pretty much as most of China semiconductor industry a black box in China, so no "independent body" is going to do nothing, well at least if they don't want to spend some time in a Chinese prison, I'm base in government documents where there state the commercialization and mass production of components for a immersion lithography machine for 14nm node process and less.

Sicarrier to announce something special on 15th, October..

 

[tokenanalyst]

The high-end production line of Hanjing Semiconductor, a subsidiary of Zhengfan Technology, has officially started production in its new factory.​

The Lida Factory of Liaoning Hanjing Semiconductor Materials Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Hanjing Lida Factory") ushered in a milestone moment - the new factory's high-end production line was officially put into production, and production capacity reached a new high, with a total production capacity of 2 billion.

According to reports, Hanking's Lida factory has built the first ultra-high purity quartz production line in China, whose product grade corresponds to advanced semiconductor process technology below 10 nanometers; as well as the first semiconductor silicon carbide component production line in China, breaking through the "bottleneck" products in the field of advanced silicon carbide components. Based on Hanking's deep product R&D capabilities and manufacturing experience, it is expected to shorten the supply cycle of ceramic products for semiconductor equipment from 2 to 3 years to less than 1 year, contributing to the Chinese semiconductor industry's efforts to break the foreign monopoly and further consolidate the company's leading position in the semiconductor high-end OPEX market.

In August of this year, Gensun Technology announced that it had signed a share transfer agreement with five shareholders of Hanjing Semiconductor, a Liaoning-based semiconductor materials company. The agreement involves the acquisition of a 62.2318% stake in Hanjing Semiconductor for a total transaction value of 1.12 billion yuan. Upon completion of the transaction, Hanjing Semiconductor will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Gensun Technology.

Hanjing Semiconductor was established in 2022. It was founded by the entire core team of the former Shenyang Hanke Semiconductor. It focuses on high-purity quartz materials and silicon carbide ceramic materials. It has high-precision quartz and advanced ceramic material manufacturing technology. The main products include quartz tubes, quartz boats, quartz rings, silicon carbide ceramic boats, silicon carbide ceramic tubes, silicon carbide ceramic insulation cylinders, etc.

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[tphuang]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1976689598601310281

XITC and China mobile to develop new series of DDR4 product that's produced in China (like with CXMT) and works with domestic CPUs

 

[tokenanalyst]

At the end of the day the dusk always settle. I do personally think after all is settle and done, US semiconductor companies could end with a reduced market share, with more competition, that they didn't ask for and China will have a bigger share of the global semiconductor supply chain not only in tools but also in, ICs, software, materials and components that what was predicted to have before the intervention of US politicians who followed the advice of unqualify D.C. think tank stooges. In fact is already happening.​

 

[gelgoog]

I am hearing a lot of American policy folks talking about denying all chips <=14nm to China, as well as all semiconductor equipment.

Just think about it. If they do this then consumer electronics will vanish from shelves worldwide and inflation will spike like hell.

Will China be impacted by this?

It will take time to adjust to the new conditions. Look at the Russian auto sector. It took them 2 years to recover. That is about the time it takes to ramp up facilities.

At least from numbers, China buys a LOT of semi equipment, and chips <=14nm. Does China have replacement for all of them?

Pretty much with exception of lithography.

I thought they are only in test runs, until now, no independent analysis body has found evidence of chinese lithography being used in 14nm processes.

Maybe they are looking in the wrong places. What if they are being used in a B2B product not available for export outside China?

If it is required to maintain legacy fabs, wouldn't that still be an issue?

Believe me without rare earth magnets the West won't be in a better situation.

But what explains the billions of usd of equipment, material, and chips that China is already buying.

Would you rather have the money in US Treasury bonds? What happened to Russian or Venezuelan savings?

an Issue for HHGrace but I think they will overcome it, no so much for SMIC and others who have spend years localizing their supply chain.

I think Hua Hong is screwed in that they started their capacity expansion quite late. But Wuxi Phase II which is their second gigafab started risk production in late 2024. Maybe they can equip that before the sanctions kick in.
However it remains to be seen what about Phase III.