Chinese semiconductor industry

gelgoog said:

AMD has no 3D package like that yet. HBM DRAM uses similar packaging technology. However it isn't cheap.
You still have to manufacture more wafers. Which means more tools and materials and time and $$$.

It is all predicated on the fact that leading edge chip manufacture is currently limited by costly and slow current generation EUV machines or that certain parts of the product do not need higher detail features. If you look at ASML's roadmap however it is expected that EUV machine tools will continue to increase in output rate.

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yes you have to manufacture multiple wafers but you can outsource less speed critical parts of the chip such as I/O to cheaper processes.

how big of a savings can you get? 10 years ago, Same source states 20 nm (still far from leading edge) has $120 million design costs and $5 million mask cost. That was a while ago, but even today it is $70 million for 20 nm. . How much more expensive is EUV?

Migrating even a part of the chip over to a cheaper process is a gigantic saving. Utilizing advanced packaging as much as possible and leveraging the extreme cost effectiveness of older nodes is immensely advantageous.

US will support India by some point where India can not pose a competition or endenger US supermacy. Once India approach critical level of development, it will certainly face to US firewall. See that India isnt included in any US space exploration program, like some other smaller countries did, because India also pose global threat to US in mid far future...

Annihilation98 said:

I wonder if a country like INDIA can defeat China in semiconductor since they have access to ASML technology. This will make China's technology obsolete.

Zhang Zhongmou, the founder of TSMC, once said: Without TSMC's foundry, mainland China would not be able to produce a piece of high-end chips without the efforts of the whole country. The Dutch president once said that even if the lithography machine drawings were given to China, the Chinese would not be able to create top-level lithography machines.

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He said that but saying is one thing, actually doing is another. SMIC already produces high end chips so he's wrong. Just because he founded TSMC doesn't mean he's a god that knows everything. Where would TSMC be without... literally every supplier? Because Taiwan doesn't manufacture a single piece of equipment that TSMC uses.

Even if TSMC tomorrow declared itself an Indian company, moved their HQ to India, changed the meaning of TSMC to Tandoori Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and put an Indian CEO in place, the end result will be that the entire company gets run into the ground and not only become zero value but negative value as India will have to import all of the inputs and has no nearby market to sell to. The upkeep cost of TSMC (Tandoori version) will far exceed its output and not only provide zero value for India, it will drain value away. Even if they just abandon it, TSMC will still have chemical leaks that damage the environment. Best to leave TSMC in Taiwan and not Tamil Nadu.

YMTC's model is relying on the existence of spare capacity at other fabs to make the I/O wafers. So far this is a viable business model.

India has all sorts of problems. They do not have the capital and a factory needs vast amounts of power and clean water to operate.

It makes sense to have the factory close to the rest of the supply chain. A lot of chip packaging is done in Malaysia and the plants which assemble the product are in China. While chips are small enough transportation costs aren't a major factor, you still have time delays, and problems with communications between contractors from distance.

Even Vietnam would be a more likely candidate than India simply because they are closer to the rest of the supply chain. Not that I think Vietnam would become a major manufacture site any time soon. Their infrastructure is still pitiful.

Annihilation98 said:

I wonder if a country like INDIA can defeat China in semiconductor since they have access to ASML technology. This will make China's technology obsolete.

Zhang Zhongmou, the founder of TSMC, once said: Without TSMC's foundry, mainland China would not be able to produce a piece of high-end chips without the efforts of the whole country. The Dutch president once said that even if the lithography machine drawings were given to China, the Chinese would not be able to create top-level lithography machines.

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@Annihilation98 bro I abide on what BYD CEO Wang Chuanfu had quoted "Chips are man made and therefore are surmountable" .

Good luck on India we wish her the best, But I bet you within the decade we may see a Chinese 1nm chips being FAB by a SMEE/CETC EUVL powered by SSBS /SSB LASER. all Chinese made and IP.

I don't want to belittle India but its a pipe dream, right now the advance country want to develop its semi industries in house, that is why TSMC and SK is being squeeze. In the next 5 years there will be 3 blocs with the US, EU and China, with excess capacity to whom will they sell their products? Definitely China had the lower and middle range sewed up, SO where will the US and EU sell their chips and what about India can they compete with the Chinese which had the experience and core competency? All these question need to be answered before implying that India somehow can cause they're Indians, they are special and able to do what the Chinese are striving to achieved from the last 15 years. Jai Hindi!!!!

ansy1968 said:

I don't want to belittle India but its a pipe dream, right now the advance country want to develop its semi industries in house, that is why TSMC and SK is being squeeze. In the next 5 years there will be 3 blocs with the US, EU and China, with excess capacity to whom will they sell their products? Definitely China had the lower and middle range sewed up, SO where will the US and EU sell their chips and what about India can they compete with the Chinese which had the experience and core competency? All these question need to be answered before implying that India somehow can cause they're Indians, they are special and able to do what the Chinese are striving to achieved from the last 15 years. Jai Hindi!!!!

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Where will they even find the Human capital, I'm sure China will absorb all their domestic students for their own industry. The US might recruit international students from their universities. But where will the EU and India find the people? The EU has money, so that leaves India with the last pickings i guess?

BlackWindMnt said:

Where will they even find the Human capital, I'm sure China will absorb all their domestic students for their own industry. The US might recruit international students from their universities. But where will the EU and India find the people? The EU has money, so that leaves India with the last pickings i guess?

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@BlackWindMnt Bro manpower for China aside from its owned people there will be some coming from TW and SK (opportunity and pay), the US had blackmailed both TSMC and SK in establishing a FAB in the US so they already secured the tech, EU had the same idea with TSMC establishing a FAB in Germany , so with Japan. And now with so many project will TSMC do the same with India? They're afraid of a glut coming in 2024/25 with multitude of FABS coming online. Here an Indian fallacy is being exposed they're not that important and special especially in the world economy, they can't compete , their infrastructure is outdated, incapable and sorely lacking, manpower wise not only deficient but criminally neglected. To establish a foundry you need a strong foundation and India excuse for lack of a better term is in the Dark ages.

EU has little chance. The industry in Europe is neither large nor sophisticated enough to need advanced chips. The former phone leaders in Europe like Nokia, well, just look at what happened with Nokia. Sabotaged from within by a US operative. It went from #1 to irrelevance.
ARM does have chip design facilities in the EU, like in France and Norway, but ARM does not manufacture chips themselves.

Let's just face it. Any tech company the EU creates has a high chance of being bought out or destroyed by US capital if it becomes relevant enough.

gelgoog said:

EU has little chance. The industry in Europe is neither large nor sophisticated enough to need advanced chips. The former phone leaders in Europe like Nokia, well, just look at what happened with Nokia. Sabotaged from within by a US operative. It went from #1 to irrelevance.
ARM does have chip design facilities in the EU, like in France and Norway, but ARM does not manufacture chips themselves.

Let's just face it. Any tech company the EU creates has a high chance of being bought out or destroyed by US capital if it becomes relevant enough.

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@gelgoog bro what about TSMC plan FAB in Germany?