Chinese semiconductor industry

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AndrewS

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"....TSMC is desperately hoping that SMEE or any other Chinese companies can come with an EUV or other similarly effective lithography breakthrough for < 7nm nodes,"

Problem is, if SMEE does develop such technology why would China need TSMC?

If TSMC is not willing/can't ignore American sanctions now, why would China help it when it does not need TSMC any longer?

Because TSMC will help SMEE equipment become the global standard, at the expense of ASML equipment which is subject to US sanctions controls.
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Not fully convinced, but I sincerely hope this assessment is correct.

Tech is very weird compared to other industries.

Take for instance the railroad industry. It is always the same railroad companies, such as Union Pacific, which still exists, which is the same Union Pacific in the board game Monopoly.

Tech is different. The tech industry can be rearranged in a matter of a couple of years.

So far from what I have seen watching tech companies, who has a better product wipes out the competitors.

Here is an old graphic.

tiktok-growth-rate.png
 

BlackWindMnt

Captain
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Software also allows to react so much faster, if one of your competitors slips up you can quickly fill the hole left unfilled by the competitor.
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Software also allows to react so much faster, if one of your competitors slips up you can quickly fill the hole left unfilled by the competitor.

The US company Blockbuster went under pretty quickly.

Xerox too.

If some company out there, part of the IC chain, making a product only for a node like over 28nm, but failed to make it product compatible with the lower nodes, well then, they are gone too. That is what essentially happened to Japanese IC industry.

Tech is weird. You're here today, gone tomorrow.
 

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
The US company Blockbuster went under pretty quickly.

Xerox too.

If some company out there, part of the IC chain, making a product only for a node like over 28nm, but failed to make it product compatible with the lower nodes, well then, they are gone too. That is what essentially happened to Japanese IC industry.

Tech is weird. You're here today, gone tomorrow.
The original Google founders tried to sell their algorithm PageRank to Yahoo but Yahoo wasn't interested...
Netflix tried to sell its idea to Blockbuster but you know the story....
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
The US company Blockbuster went under pretty quickly.

Xerox too.

If some company out there, part of the IC chain, making a product only for a node like over 28nm, but failed to make it product compatible with the lower nodes, well then, they are gone too. That is what essentially happened to Japanese IC industry.

Tech is weird. You're here today, gone tomorrow.
Not really. Software and hardware are nothing alike. Japanese IC industry was never focused on consumer and processors, they were focused on analog, sensor and microcontrollers for industrial applications.

You can't just switch process nodes and do die shrinks on a whim like you can release a new software version, die shrinks have very real, physical limitations like heat generation and very real, economic limitations like hundreds of millions USD. Costs include design, validation, mask fabrication, prototyping, programming tool development, IP libraries, etc. Lead times aren't days like in software. More like months to years. The fab needs to buy wafers, get masks for each layer, buy chemicals... And that's just for a die shrink, not a functionally new product.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
The original Google founders tried to sell their algorithm PageRank to Yahoo but Yahoo wasn't interested...
Netflix tried to sell its idea to Blockbuster but you know the story....

Not to derail the thread but Netflix tried to sell itself to blockbuster before streaming existed.
 
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