Chinese semiconductor industry

dfrtyhgj said:

TSMC may join China sooner than experts predict

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US realize about it, thats why she push Intel to become TSMC substitute.

If China invaded Taiwan and take control on TSMC soon US will ban TSMC the same way as US ban SMIC from buying most advanced tools & equipment then TSMC will decline.

So the issue here is not about controlling TSMC nor foundry technology alone, but mastering the whole ecosystem of the most advance chip production.

bettydice said:

That's why China will need to act on Taiwan and South China Sea before too late. The longer time China waits, the more the US will fortify Taiwan and South China Sea, then it will become too costly for China to engage in military conflicts and the window of opportunity will close. It's also quite possible as many US puppets as possible will send their warships to South China Sea, then China will have to deal with too many countries. And stop wishful thinking that China's economic/technological success or Taiwan's economic downhill will make Taiwan surrender to China.

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The national rejuvenation is not even halfway. There exists no reason for China to engage in the "reunify" exercise. Most other countries are still abiding by the One China Policy, including the US.

There might be some taunts and escalations by US but nothing short of a full fledged military base with formal recognition by US and its allies will be inflammatory enough for China. Also, Taiwan is indefensible against even a conventional power, let alone a nuclear power.

The best way to defeat Taiwan would be to destroy its electronics industry. That's why I support the US move to build fabs in Arizona as it will eat into the profits of TSMC. I just hope South Koreans do their part too.

antonius123 said:

US realize about it, thats why she push Intel to become TSMC substitute.

If China invaded Taiwan and take control on TSMC soon US will ban TSMC the same way as US ban SMIC from buying most advanced tools & equipment then TSMC will decline.

So the issue here is not about controlling TSMC nor foundry technology alone, but mastering the whole ecosystem of the most advance chip production.

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@antonius123 welcome back bro , long time no hear, yup correct and those Taiwanese compatriots may serve the motherland one day. Kinship matter most whatever political view we have, these divide and conquer thing that the Anglos master at, its an old story cause now we hold our destiny in our owned hands not theirs (China market size Plus Taiwan technical ability) and that frighten them BIG Time.

bettydice said:

That's why China will need to act on Taiwan and South China Sea before too late. The longer time China waits, the more the US will fortify Taiwan and South China Sea, then it will become too costly for China to engage in military conflicts and the window of opportunity will close. It's also quite possible as many US puppets as possible will send their warships to South China Sea, then China will have to deal with too many countries. And stop wishful thinking that China's economic/technological success or Taiwan's economic downhill will make Taiwan surrender to China.

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An embargo on Taiwan against the import of foreign made military equipment will be enforced. This is the first step in removing foreign military equipment from Taiwan.

antonius123 said:

US realize about it, thats why she push Intel to become TSMC substitute.

If China invaded Taiwan and take control on TSMC soon US will ban TSMC the same way as US ban SMIC from buying most advanced tools & equipment then TSMC will decline.

So the issue here is not about controlling TSMC nor foundry technology alone, but mastering the whole ecosystem of the most advance chip production.

Click to expand...

Just let them ban TSMC, which makes chips for Apple, AMD and nvidia. But by that time China needs to make sure SMIC has all the local machines which should be superior than those from ASML.

bettydice said:

That's why China will need to act on Taiwan and South China Sea before too late.

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They used to brag about being able to fight a 2 front war against China and Russia simultaneously, 1v2.

Today it is trying to drag puppets in. Is that the same country? Is the window really closing or opening?

FairAndUnbiased said:

They used to brag about being able to fight a 2 front war against China and Russia simultaneously, 1v2.

Today it is trying to drag puppets in. Is that the same country? Is the window really closing or opening?

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Precisely. The only reason why the decadent empire is dragging its "allies" into the conflict is that their military edge is shrinking fast and they realize that they already cannot defeat China near its shores alone. Even economically, when the US tried to fight China solo during Trump, they damaged themselves more and sped up technological progress in China, because private enterprises are now on board with the state policies of self-sufficiency as the US proved to be an unreliable business partner. Starting a war now is playing into the empire's hands.

The same is true for semiconductors - no need for excessive retaliations for now, secure enough self-suffiency and then you can act more brazenly. SMEE's 28 nm machines is the big step into that direction.

bettydice said:

That's why China will need to act on Taiwan and South China Sea before too late. The longer time China waits, the more the US will fortify Taiwan and South China Sea, then it will become too costly for China to engage in military conflicts and the window of opportunity will close. It's also quite possible as many US puppets as possible will send their warships to South China Sea, then China will have to deal with too many countries. And stop wishful thinking that China's economic/technological success or Taiwan's economic downhill will make Taiwan surrender to China.

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I disagree.

Time favours China.

1. It is China which continues to fortify the South China Seas. The USA has no bases, whilst China keeps building.

2. You also have to consider how China is converting its economic power into hard power.

For example, China is building over 350 nuclear missile silos. Once these are completed and filled, this will scare any other country from going to war against China.

Also, the Australian government projects China will have an economy 2x the size of the USA by 2030. All things being equal, China should have 2x as much stuff as the USA.

3. Taiwan is being left to its own resources. Their military and economy are mature and slow-growing.

AndrewS said:

I disagree.

Time favours China.

1. It is China which continues to fortify the South China Seas. The USA has no bases, whilst China keeps building.

2. You also have to consider how China is converting its economic power into hard power.

For example, China is building over 350 nuclear missile silos. Once these are completed and filled, this will scare any other country from going to war against China.

Also, the Australian government projects China will have an economy 2x the size of the USA by 2030. All things being equal, China should have 2x as much stuff as the USA.

3. Taiwan is being left to its own resources. Their military and economy are mature and slow-growing.

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@AndrewS Bro a hypothetical question, will the American engineer a war before 2025? Right now there are people in the US that want to strike China now while they still had the advantage, I'm a former skeptic but seeing how the US behave I had become a believer.

ansy1968 said:

@AndrewS Bro a hypothetical question, will the American engineer a war before 2025? Right now there are people in the US that want to strike China now while they still had the advantage, I'm a former skeptic but seeing how the US behave I had become a believer.

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If the US wanted to engineer a war, the sooner the better for them.

But I don't think it will happen. Even today, there are enough rational decision makers who would come to the conclusion that nuclear war isn't worth it. Particularly amongst the Democrats.

In a year's time when the nuclear missile silos are completed, even the die-hard cold warriors will have to accept this.