The overcapacity being installed in the world is an "if". It is a "definitely" there will be excess capacity. Problem is for China this is no longer an economical financial problem it is an existential problem. So there is no argument, one spends what one needs to spend in order to assure survival.
But the rosy aspect of this problem is that China IS the largest semiconductor market. It will be able to use the chips it will manufacture.
The rest of the world is who is being screwed, particularly Taiwan and TSMC.
The chances of happening the same thing as in the solar panels is almost 100%. But China is who leads the pack now and no one can beat it.
Ten year from now, the same will happen with semiconductors.