Chinese semiconductor industry

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Weaasel

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Unlikely in the short term since semiconductor manufacturing is a capital intensive industry. Labour cost only play a very small part. Since majority of the equipment are imported, Chinese manufacturers costs are likely higher than foreign competitors (support/volume discount/expertise/defect rate/etc). This is likely the reason so few Chinese private companies are willing to enter the market before.
Thanks to the Trump regime, the risk/reward calculation for Chinese players have changed completely.
Faced with the very real probability of a complete embargo on sales of IC chips and IC chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, the mostly highly complacent Chinese semiconductor utilizing companies have seen it as thoroughly in their interests to be patrons to Chinese makers of chips and IC chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
 

jfcarli

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Very true and Biden administration know it ... just how to undo Trump's policies is very tricky business
Fact is Biden is doubling down on Trump's policy. I think the possibility for a truce is zero.

Think it is high time Xi Jinping picks the phone and puts some sense in Tsai Ing-wen's head explaining to her there is a very short term for her to use the strength of Taiwan's chip industry to get back to mainland's bosom.

The moment mainland China becomes self sufficient, bye bye TSMC. bye bye Taiwan.

And do you have any hopes the US will lift a finger to help Taiwan once China doesn't need Taiwan anymore? Do you have any hopes the US will lift an eyebrow once it also has factories producing the chips in the US?

One way of another, Taiwan is screwed up. It's only hope of maintaining any relevance will be to willingly and peacefully being brought back under mainland's shelter.
 

Weaasel

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TSMC medium to long term future looks gloomy. It will miss out on the domestic Chinese market, because that is definitely going the way of Chinese domestic IC chip makers heavy domination, as China will ABSOLUTELY NO LONGER permit itself to be vulnerable to potential embargoes by any other country or entity. TSMC could actually support Chinese IC chip equipment and semiconductor manufacturing equipment in producing high in demand mature nodes and also present absolute state of the art and future ones, all as a quid pro quo to obtain a fairly decent market share of the domestic Chinese market, so as to purchase such equipment to produce chips for companies that make motorized vehicles, consumer electronics appliances, telecommunications equipment, and various types of manufacturing machinery, and metrological equipment.
 

Weaasel

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Everything was going fine, until the Stable Genius decided to declare war on China attacking Huawei and ZTE.

Til then, no company needed to place panic orders for two or three years, the semiconductor market was stable, the manufacturers of semiconductor manufacturing equipment were making their money. TSMC was making money. Everything went smoothly and everybody was happy.

After he declared war on China, he suddently realized that Taiwan was much closer to China than to the US. It also suddently dawned on him that both Taiwan and China spoke the same language, they had the same cultural roots and essentially they were the same people.

That realization scared the American shitless, because, who knows, if somehow Taiwan became suddely wise, they could end up being under the control of mainland China, to whom they had just then declared war.

Now it is each one for himself, no matter who gets screwed.

At the end of the day, Taiwan and TSMC will be the greates losers. The US, however, is going to take a blow like they have never gotten in their entire history.

It will be nice to see it!
That stable genius was the best thing that any guidelines, subsidies, and even pilot plants, and experimental prototype of equipment made by the Chinese State could do under Made in China 2025, to actually push Chinese companies into pursuing Made in China 2025. He clearly demonstrated the reality of the probability of China and Chinese companies facing a tech embargo and that the rationale or logic of least financial cost and doing what is most profitable all the time could not be assured. He gave Chinese companies such as Huawei a slap in the face for them to snap out of their liberal free market toeing mindset.
 

Weaasel

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TSMC may have no choice but to do more Business in China.
China is still the largest single market for ICs in the World.
It will be losing more American and EU clients as both US and EU want to FAB their own ICs for National Security reasons.
Yes......probably set up a separate Entity to operate in China which uses Chinese made Semiconductor Equipment.
TSMC already owns a part of SMIC so it could set up another entity like SMIC.
It will however be subject to Chinese National Security checks and Entity List Laws etc.
For Eg. If it refuses to supply Huawei it could be shut down.
It can choose between that and most likely dying in the medium term.
 

Nutrient

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China must continue to participate in global networks for innovation and collaboration for microchip development and must commit sufficient capital and technical resources to this activity, according to Dr. Bao. The current independent research and development within China must ensure it is fully aligned with global standards, market, and manufacturing patterns and must not result in the development of separate, incompatible systems.

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Of course, there is a trap to adopting global standards, @gadgetcool5, as you probably know quite well. Many of these are protected by expensive patents. China might adopt some of the standards anyway, but must be free to set its own conventions when necessary.
 
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