China should act on Taiwan before the yankees take hold of Chinese technology. This involves national security, and for sure they have plans for this already. How many years before TSMC's factory in the US start manufacturing?
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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@WTAN So sir the difficult question is who will win? with the pandemic devastating a lot of economies until 2023, the Chinese which is handicap for the next 5 years had a ready market, and a thriving market in the 3rd world. A domestic 28nm and 14nm production line this year will surely serve those concern except for the niche market of high end smart phone and GPU. In 2024 the massive Arizona and the Austin FAB will come in operation by that time SMIC might have a 7nm localized production line or maybe a functioning EUVL in used. Instead of trying to cripple the Chinese a reverse may happen , they had given China a key leveraged cause to whom will they sell those expensive chips to justify its expensive white elephant project.
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@Tyler bro no need to, if they invade those FABS will be useless cause it contain a lot of American tech. The current strategy is correct, need to produce an ingenious system from the ground up, its time consuming and frustrating but the outcome is total self sufficiency. LIU HE appointment holds a lot of promise. Xi had put its credibility on the line and failure is not an option. And I'm glad Xi had taken control my criticism of him is that he should done it sooner. And if China succeeded they will flood the market, even if you're an American allies, a commoditized Chip is ideal , you had an option and that increase your bargaining power instead of the current monopolistic market and become a subdual country.
Three years ago, I was not optimistic of China's chances breaking out of this tech stranglehold. NOW, it's a totally different story. Sometime after 2030, I think the bifurcation in the supply chains will move absolutely in China's favor. It's around this time that I expect China's semiconductor fabrication tech to finally reach parity with America, plus its puppets. When this happens, their pricing power will disappear and China will take almost all of that business. I'm very confident of something like this happening. What I fear is, before this happens, America and its puppets will force some sort of military conflict which doesn't end well for anybody.
well that was always the last card to play... when they see China about to break through the tech war they will bring on the hot kinetic war... seems strategy is to get Asia to destroy itself (Japan, Korea, etc basing US missile attacks on mainland China industries and cities to force China to strike the Asian vassals back) whilsts leaving the America homeland untouched and intact... they seem to think it worked for them WWII so they will use this strategy again.
Do you think the quad countries would actually go all the way with a hot war? I have been on the fence with this but the more time passes, the more I believe this is just a high stakes game of chicken with any actual shooting happening only by accident. The supply chains are just too intertwined at this point to make this viable. If we're 5+ years from now, then it becomes more likely. What I fear is if India does something stupid, which is VERY POSSIBLE. The pan-Bharat types are the only ones more stupid than the American leadership and they might be planning some "event" to take advantage of this situation. That's what happened in Ladakh when they used the COVID-19 situation believing China was in a position of weakness.
Like you said, most likely it will be false flag event that ignites it and the vassals will be forced to take sides... the sooner US brings on hot kinetic the better the odds of vassals siding with US whether its in their self interest or not...
In US history the major wars have all been started by a false flag... especially after WWII... Operation Northwoods, Gulf of Tonkin, USS Liberty, 9/11 WTC7, etc etc
Explain to me why an American instigated war with China should not touch the US homeland.
America is free to hit Shenzen and Shanghai but LA and New York are off limits in retaliation?
Anyway once China achieves 28nm and 14nm full independence in 2023 or thereabouts, I'm pretty sure the Americans will come around and realize they were overreacting.
They'll do something to save
Should, could and would are different things... America will hide behind its vassals.. say missiles from Korea, Japan or even phillipines hit Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing etc... assuming conventional not nukes, the US would believe a porpotional response would be China attacks back those bases in those countries... getting Asia to fight a civil war of sorts...
Its much easier for US with 900 military bases to reach out and touch China than for China to strike USA cities on its mainland...
If China strikes US cities it would invite a disporportionate escalation on America's part, a full scale nuclear war on China...
So unless Chinese gov is mentally prepared to end everything... they wont dare touch US cities... thats the thinking anyway
antiterror13
Brigadier
but all against much much inferior opponents ... China is totally a different beast
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