Chinese semiconductor industry

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ansy1968

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Basically, after the sanctions fully kick in and Chinese fabs got what they wanted. ASML would be in a sharp decline in sales.
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Bookings fell 42% to €2.6 billion ($2.8 billion) in July through September from the previous quarter, ASML — the only producer of the lithography equipment needed to make the world’s most advanced semiconductors — said in a statement Wednesday. That compares with an average estimate of €4.5 billion among analysts polled by Bloomberg.

China accounted for 46% of ASML’s sales in the third quarter, compared to 24% in the previous quarter and 8% in January to March. Taiwan was 24%, down from 34% in the second quarter.

“Our Chinese customers say: We are happy to take the machines that others don’t want,” Chief Executive Officer Peter Wennink had said earlier this year. “Because their fabs are ready. They can take the tools.”
But DUVi revenue is not as big as EUVi especially of the newly develop HI NA EUVL. And with SSA 800 introduction this year its DUVi sales may take a hit, we may see a price war as ASML want to maintain their dominance, in a difficult business environment were they had to please their American counterpart, What will they do?
 

huemens

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But DUVi revenue is not as big as EUVi especially of the newly develop HI NA EUVL. And with SSA 800 introduction this year its DUVi sales may take a hit, we may see a price war as ASML want to maintain their dominance, in a difficult business environment were they had to please their American counterpart, What will they do?

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ASML CEO says he expects demand from China will remain strong​

AMSTERDAM : The chief executive of Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML Holding NV said on Wednesday he expected demand from Chinese chipmakers to continue to be strong, despite export restrictions imposed by the U.S. and Dutch governments.

"I don't think we will see a peak this year, I think there will be a significant amount of demand coming out of China for mature technology," Peter Wennink said at a press conference following third quarter results.
 

tphuang

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Here is a article related to the Phytium performance pic posted yesterday regarding a new Phytium processor. Not too much more than what you saw from the photo, but if you are curious...

Taiwanese article:
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English copy/cleaner translation of the prior
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i actually posted this several days ago, but yeah, it's pretty good.

Basically, after the sanctions fully kick in and Chinese fabs got what they wanted. ASML would be in a sharp decline in sales.
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Bookings fell 42% to €2.6 billion ($2.8 billion) in July through September from the previous quarter, ASML — the only producer of the lithography equipment needed to make the world’s most advanced semiconductors — said in a statement Wednesday. That compares with an average estimate of €4.5 billion among analysts polled by Bloomberg.

China accounted for 46% of ASML’s sales in the third quarter, compared to 24% in the previous quarter and 8% in January to March. Taiwan was 24%, down from 34% in the second quarter.

“Our Chinese customers say: We are happy to take the machines that others don’t want,” Chief Executive Officer Peter Wennink had said earlier this year. “Because their fabs are ready. They can take the tools.”
well to be fair, most of that was last minute deliveries before the sanctions get rolled out.

The other thing to consider is that if Chinese fabs are ready, then the rest of the domestic tool supply is ready. Good thing to hear. After all,

If they limit their sales to NXT 1980i model as planned by Jan 1 next year then they're FXXK, analogous to SMEE SSA 800, then their sales will suffer as the local unit will be more cheaper to purchase.
Chinese fabs will need ASML for a long time
 

tphuang

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saw this posted recently, no idea how accurate this is
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1、华为服务器

>鲲鹏:通用服务器(web、存储等)
>昇腾:AI服务器(训练、推理)

2、长虹跟华为的合作
>三块合作:华鲲振宇(服务器,20年6月注册)、
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(以前总代)、华存智谷(存储软件),其中最主要的是华鲲振宇

3、华为服务器出货量
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22年120亿,23年目标240亿,增速100%
>华为昇腾22年20多亿,23年目标70多亿,增速200%+

4、服务器市场情况
>通用服务器市场预计今年增速20%+,采购鲲鹏和海光为主,海光被制裁不少客户切鲲鹏>AI服务器市场预计今年Al需求量激增,需求不成问题,预计昇腾将超预期

5、华为鲲鹏合作方
>华为鲲鹏合作方11家(华鲲振宇、
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、同方、长江计算等)
>合作方的出货占比逐年增加:21年70%,22年80%,23年90%,剩余部分由华为泰山出货>其中,华鲲振宇占30%+、神州数码占30%(头部前二,第一梯队);长江计算、
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等(第二梯度)
>华为阶梯价政策:30亿比15亿拿货低6%,头部的合作厂商拿货成本低,更有竞争优势

6、华为昇腾合作方
>华为昇腾合作方14家,其中华鲲振宇、宝德(头部前二,第一梯队)
>昇腾的利润率比较高,芯片供应优先保障昇腾
>华为阶梯价政策:30亿比15亿拿货低6%,头部的合作厂商华鲲振宇和宝德拿货成本更低

7、华鲲振宇
>22年做了35亿(其中鲲鹏25亿,昇腾10亿)、23年目标完成100亿(其中鲲鹏70亿,昇腾30亿),近2倍增长
>公司23年目标,相当于华鲲振宇在鲲鹏合作方中占比33%,在昇腾占比40%+>另外,今年华为鼓励华鲲振宇自行开拓客户,双管齐下,业绩预计进一步释放

8、华为服务器利润率情况
>鲲鹏服务器主要面向的
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政企、运营商,整体毛利净利水平比互联网客户要高
>昇腾AI服务器卖的很贵(4个芯片AI服务器70-80万、8芯片AI服务器卖100多万),毛利净利水平比通用高很多,华为政府愿意买单

9、昇腾芯片
昇腾310对标
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370,昇腾910对标寒武纪590,相比而言,昇腾更成熟,价格更高,单个芯片10万+。算力能力对标
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A100,后面重点是生态的打造
lists various people that Huawei cooperates with on AI

Ascend-310 and cambrian-370 are comparable
Ascend-910 can be compared to Cambrian-590
But Ascend is more mature so high prices. Individual card cost more than 100k RMB

8 AI card server cost over 1m RMB, very high margin. govt willing to buy

says that Huawei made 12B on kunpeng last year and goal of 24B this year. Seems hard to believe
Ascend was 2B last year and goal of 7B this year. This seems possible if each card is 100k RMB
 

huemens

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If they limit their sales to NXT 1980i model as planned by Jan 1 next year then they're FXXK, analogous to SMEE SSA 800, then their sales will suffer as the local unit will be more cheaper to purchase.
That's already according to current Dutch restrictions. After new US restrictions today they said 1980i will aslo be banned for specific Chinese fabs that works on advanced nodes.
 

tonyget

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I think there is a misunderstanding here.

Firstly,the latest US BIS statement did not mention any specific detail regarding equipment export control. Below is the original US BIS statement. It says that "Imposes controls on additional types of semiconductor manufacturing equipment", but did not specify the exact types of concern.

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Key changes made from the October 7, 2022, rule include:
• Imposes controls on additional types of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
• Refines and better focuses the U.S. persons restrictions while codifying previously
existing agency guidance, to ensure U.S. companies cannot provide support to advanced
PRC semiconductor manufacturing while avoiding unintended impacts.
• Expanding license requirements for semiconductor manufacturing equipment to apply to
additional countries beyond the PRC and Macau, to 21 other countries for which the U.S.
maintains an arms embargo.


Secondly,ASML response to this was as follow. Again, all they said, was "it is our understanding that the new regulations will be applicable to a limited number of fabs in China related to advanced semiconductor manufacturing". They didn't say anything about 1980i

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Announcement - Veldhoven, the Netherlands, October 17, 2023

Today, the US authorities published the updated version of the advanced computing and semiconductor manufacturing equipment rule, imposing additional restrictions on export of advanced chip manufacturing technology. These regulations will become effective after a period of 30 days.

Given the length and complexity of the regulations, ASML will need to carefully assess any potential implications. However, as to our business, from the information we received, it is our understanding that the new regulations will be applicable to a limited number of fabs in China related to advanced semiconductor manufacturing.

These export control measures will likely have an impact on the regional split of our systems sales in the medium to long term. However, we do not expect these measures to have a material impact on our financial outlook for 2023 and for our longer-term scenarios for 2025 and 2030, as communicated during our Investor Day in November 2022.

Our view on 2024 as presented in our Q3 press release includes these developments around export controls.

ASML will seek further clarification from the US authorities on the scope of these new regulations. ASML is fully committed to comply with all applicable laws and regulations including export control legislation in the countries in which we operate.

So at this point,it is not clear whether lithography machine or any specific model of such machine is being affected
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Chinese fabs will need ASML for a long time
Yes sir, BUT why limit your option? with your major customer having a hard time purchasing due to over capacity, especially when your product that produce the most profit is being affected.

The Dutch are naive, they are looking past Brandon, hoping that a new president will be more accommodating BUT we are talking about the US containment policy, its a UNI party especially when it come to China.
 
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