Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
- Start date
- Status
No, they will not work with smic. Huawei has smic capacity locked down. More importantly, they have access to tsmc and Samsung, why would you want them to use previous smic capacity.
But more importantly above all else, huawei is able to make up for process node difference through better chip design and other tech innovations. Do you think dji or xiaomi have experience with GPU, npu and hyper threading?
That doesn't sound right to me. Both DJI and Xiaomi have been hit with sanctions, although they let Xiaomi off later. Depending on TSMC or Samsung means letting your survival be entirely determined by US domestic politics.
Capacity will of course take another couple of years to resolve, and there are obviously many products or projects that were started years ago that doesn't make sense to change ... but any Chinese tech company starting a new tape out today (for a totally new design) choosing to use Arm / TSMC today needs their heads checked.
Whether they will be able to access TSMC or Samsung is not relevant here. They do not have the ability to design chips that are competitive with leading SoCs on SMIC. So if they can't access TSMC, then they can keep buying from American companies like they are now.
Mate series works because Huawei has everything under its own control allowing it to optimize performance and get every extra juice out. For example, if Xiaomi uses its own Soc + HW 5g modem, it just won't be as good as Kirin 9000S, because modem would be outside & not as integrated with CPU.
actual source of this news is from Taiwan without even mentioning their name. and this news first posted by dylan patel on twitter. LOL
so discard this information.
The new (proposed) strategy of allowing AI GPUs like Nvidia H100s and A100s to be sold enables China to be addicted to Western software ecosystems (i.e., CUDA) and dominate domestic alternatives. It would render China wholly dependent on AI ecosystem that West controls and deny access in future. Alibaba, Tencent and other players should adopt Huawei's Ascend Atlas 900 AI clusters which have equivalent performance to A100's and develop a domestic ecosystem comparable with CUDA. I wish the AI bans stay intact, it gives a golden opportunity for domestic AI ecosystem to flourish that would otherwise never happen in a free market environment.
The broader new strategy for US chipmakers is reap the profitable market access to China and recycle profits to maintain R&D leadership and keep dumb Chinese dependent on foreign chips (or ecosystem). Huawei isn't dumb, it will still cultivate it's domestic supply chain, but I'm sure Huawei would be interest in some chips from TSMC for global versions of Mate series. For high-end chips, Huawei can dual source SMIC and TSMC for China-only versions and Global versions of Mate series, respectively. It would allow Huawei to be competitive in overseas. Later revert to single sole source from SMIC when 3nm EUV is scaled.
So in summary, the only risk where China can be addicted to foreign tech is likely Nvidia CUDA if US opens the flood gates to AI GPU exports. Less so for high-end mobile chips since Huawei is going to develop it's domestic supply chain anyways and waiting for domestic EUV to drop. I have my doubts if US would allow H100's or A100's to be sold to China. That would be a huge shift in policy. Just the fact that think-tankies even have this level of self-awareness is already a huge victory for China.
The US will only ratchet up the sanctions
If you understand the current state of American politics
I don't think it's politically feasible to pivot to that kind of policy. Any politician even remotely tainted by this will be a ripe target for his opponents.
- Status