Chinese semiconductor industry

FriedButter said:

Because you need to think of the location. TSMC has a fab in China and the US. Do you think SMIC is going to be allowed to open a fab in either of those locations?

North America = Zero Chance
South America = Lack of Workers
Western Europe = Zero Chance
Eastern Europe = Lack of Workers
Russia = Possible Option but just export chips from China
Africa = Lack of Workers
Middle East = Lack of Water
ASEAN = Too close to China
East Asia (Not China) = Zero Chance.

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An EUV or semicon fab is basically a strategic asset like a ICBM or SSBN in a regionalizing world. Governments who have them will not export them readily. Governments that don't will try to get them.

Judging from the nuclear weapons saga, I think a Chinese fab with Chinese EUVs might be sought after in Russia, Saudi Arabia plus UAE and GCC at the very least. Indonesia and ASEAN could swing over if the fully Chinese eco-system grows and SMIC taking over fabs for the the currently globalized firms of Vivo, Oppo, Xiaomei's ilk.

At any rate, there is little chance of China being able to export anything in this decade. Every new DUV/EUV and fab plant would need to be placed in China to grow capacity. Supplying Huawei alone would be mammoth.

GiantPanda said:

An EUV or semicon fab is basically a strategic asset like a ICBM or SSBN in a regionalizing world. Governments who have them will not export them readily. Governments that don't will try to get them.

Judging from the nuclear weapons saga, I think a Chinese fab with Chinese EUVs might be sought after in Russia, Saudi Arabia plus UAE and GCC at the very least. Indonesia and ASEAN could swing over if the fully Chinese eco-system grows and SMIC taking over fabs for the the currently globalized firms of Vivo, Oppo, Xiaomei's ilk.

At any rate, there is little chance of China being able to export anything in this decade. Every new DUV/EUV and fab plant would need to be placed in China to grow capacity. Supplying Huawei alone would be mammoth.

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Duvi definitely, EUVi maybe by 2030 after satisfying local demand. To destroy a monopoly you need to democratized its usage, making it available to everyone and flood the market, That's what worried the Collective West as there is a cheaper alternative available, making them powerless to imposed their will to the Global South.

Obama knew it and propose a G2 because he is a realist, knowing full well the complexity of initiating a containment policy, BUT China spurned him, it hurt his pride so he double down making his worse nightmare happen....lol (he always murmur to Michelle that he see death people....lol)

ansy1968 said:

Now I know why ASML will continue selling its advance DUVI like NXT 2050i to China, with traditional clients forced to defer orders due to economic uncertainties, China is the only bright spot with huge demand, they may also sell their EUVi. I think @BlackWindMnt comment about the Dutch turning a blind eye on US demand is spot on, they will wait for the official unveiling of SMEE EUVi and SSA900 22NM DUVi to give them the reason to resume selling as the Raison d'etre doesn't exist anymore.

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There must be a lot DUVI from cancelled order. lol

gelgoog said:

It ain't that easy. This is technology on the level of a jet engine or worse. Just as an example a jet engine takes 5 years from initial design to working version.

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There is a handful of countries can make completely domestic jet engines，but no country can make completely domestic EUV machine as of now. So EUV is definitely much harder than jet engine

ansy1968 said:

Duvi definitely, EUVi maybe by 2030 after satisfying local demand. To destroy a monopoly you need to democratized its usage, making it available to everyone and flood the market, That's what worried the Collective West as there is a cheaper alternative available, making them powerless to imposed their will to the Global South.

Obama knew it and propose a G2 because he is a realist, knowing full well the complexity of initiating a containment policy, BUT China spurned him, it hurt his pride so he double down making his worse nightmare happen....lol (he always murmur to Michelle that he see death people....lol)

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Firstly, China should flood the world with mature chips (while working on securing China's semiconductor industry across-the-board + tying up any loose ends).

Next, China should flood the world with advanced chips (while commercializing DUVL domestically + working on EUVL).

Then, followed by China exporting DUVL (while commercializing EUVL domestically + working on XRL).

And lastly, China should proceed towards exporting EUVL (while commercializing XRL domestically + working on next-generation lithography (and/or even new-type chip-fabrication) technologies).

From techinsight on SK memory chipsAs of our latest analysis, the Mate 60 Pro exclusively features . Let's break down the key findings:

H583TD64M DRAM Die: This component, showcased in Figure 1 (package) and

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, boasts the SK hynix D1z process. It's a testament to SK hynix's cutting-edge memory technology, as previously documented in our analyses.

H25FTC0 NAND Die: The Mate 60 Pro's NAND memory, seen in Figure 2 (package) and

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, relies on SK hynix's 176-Layer TLC 4D NAND process. This represents a significant leap in storage capacity and performance.


What's intriguing is that the H583TD64M DRAM die made its debut in Lenovo's Legion 2 Pro smartphone in 2021, indicating its early adoption. Since then, this memory component has found its way into various flagship smartphones, including the Xiaomi 12 Pro (2022), Huawei Mate X3 (April 2023), and Huawei P60 Pro (June 2023). Remarkably, the Mate 60 Pro marks the third Huawei phone this year to feature the H583TD64M. It's clear that this component has established itself in the Asian market over the past few years.

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so a couple of things here. They use 1z process DRAM which is 2 yrs old and has been on Mate X3 phones also. Huawei likely has quite a bit of this + other memory chips that it has been sourcing behind the scenes. Remember, OEMs themselves likely turned a blind eye to this when they were having hard time selling in the past year and when nobody was paying attention to what Huawei was doing.

1z itself is 2 gen ahead of 1x that CXMT is on. On the other hand, Nand is 176 layer NAND process. Not better than YMTC's 232 layer. YMTC's 128 layer was also tested to have great performance vs other 128 layers, so I'm not too concerned with YMTC replacing SK in Nand.

I do think for Huawei to stay competitive on high end, it will need to continue to source newer generation DRAMs for its flagship phones. So, be interesting to see how they do this. For Nova & Enjoy series, they can probably source domestically once CXMT reaches DDR5 with 1y process.

IIRC, CXMT has really low yield when it was trying to make 1y work. Huawei may have to bite the bullet and work with that lower yielding process to cultivate CXMT into a better foundry

We are in the depressions stage!

tonyget said:

There is a handful of countries can make completely domestic jet engines，but no country can make completely domestic EUV machine as of now. So EUV is definitely much harder than jet engine

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Yes and NO, Japan do produce a Duvi and also a prototype EUVi . A matter of fact Gigaphoton had develop a 250W LPP but who is going to buy and used it? you need a FAB feedback and Input to further develop your technology. The US is very smart so they take out the air needed for the Japanese semiconductor to grow, By creating a consortium to compete against the Japanese, its a full spectrum attack combine with restriction just like it was doing today with China.

What the Japanese lack aside from a huge market , political will is a Huawei. Like I said sanctioning Them together with SMIC and SMEE only create a dynamic that can challenge the trio of Apple, TSMC and ASML.

ansy1968 said:

Speaking of TSMC, sign of visible crack are happening, with low demand and restriction on selling chips to China, they have to ask its long time supplier and partner ASML to slow down the deliveries of EUVL equipment especially the HI NA EUVL. And next year is the best time to officially introduced both a working Chinese EUVL and SSA900 22 nm duvi as a gift to Brandon....lol

Like my Brother @horse used to say 2024 is the year for the Chinese to initiate its counter offensive after absorbing all of American punches. Let's see if TSMC may cut its loses and join the Dark side....lol

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Taiwan's TSMC has told its major suppliers to delay the delivery of high-end chipmaking equipment, as the world's top contract chipmaker grows increasingly nervous about customer demand, two sources familiar with the matter said.

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lol, from Q1 next year, Huawei's N+1 will be put into operation, ... I think U.S will cut off Intel, AMD's chip supply Huawei in the next few months =))

After the lithography machine, China must break the Western monopoly on processor architecture (arm and ×86). The development of a high-performance and functional RISC-V processor on phones and computers must be a top priority for the Chinese high-tech industry. Is there any news about this?