Chinese semiconductor industry

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ansy1968

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SMIC already has customers all over the world, including American companies.


Samsung and TSMC have 100% stake in themselves. If using ASML's product makes them uncompetitive then they'll be compelled to switch. It all depends on the quality of the product and the ease of switching.
Samsung Yes, TSMC maybe difficult unless they severed their relationship with Apple and most of American company. There is a reason why the American allowed them to join the Sematech consortium, to put a leash so that they can control and eventually harvest them. In a ideal scenario TSMC using SMEE equipment will be the icing in the cake for the Chinese BUT we have SMIC and for me that is good enough.
 

gelgoog

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CXMT is like... 4-5 generations behind at the moment? And I think at least a generation and a half away from DDR5.
I personally think CXMT has management issues. The people in charge seem to be from outside the semi industry. I am surprised they got this far honestly.

From a high level perspective I'm wondering if for example SIOM, CIOMP and CAS could have put together a few reversed engineered sub-commercial quality EUV machines that were basically reverse engineered copies of ASML's EUV lithography machines starting from say 2019, after Meng Wanzhou was arrested. These machines would be for internal Chinese use or for sanctioned entities like Huawei as a stopgap measure, with an expected delivery of 2024.
It ain't that easy. This is technology on the level of a jet engine or worse. Just as an example a jet engine takes 5 years from initial design to working version.

Meanwhile SMEE or some other actual Chinese commercial entity would be another team actually developing a fully domestic EUV lithography tech stack with their 100% of their own IP. I'd expect this team to take longer say expected delivery in 2027 due to more polished designs and independent IP considerations.
Ain't worth the hassle. Much easier to just develop their own solution. Which also means they can then resell the tool to 3rd parties outside China. The Soviet's habit of running roughshod with Western patents bit them hard after the collapse when Russian semis had to then compete in the open market and couldn't market most of the products they had.

The first copy, then reinvent model of innovation is tried and trued, in China and over the world. Would the two team approach I described above have any advantages over China's current plan?
Does not make sense for EUV. For DUV maybe. To a degree this is what has been happening.

Like I said before here, if you examine the major techs for EUV litho, a lot of them are actually inside Russia. The Soviets put a 1 MW CO2 laser into a Beriev A-60 in the early 1980s as part of their Star Wars program equivalent. Basically a flying Il-76. The Trumpf CO2 laser used in ASML's EUV was just a puny 20 kW power in comparison. And the much ballyhooed tin droplet chamber was also designed by a Russian scientist working at Cymer in the US. China also has pretty advanced laser science. It is just a problem of pushing on the problem long enough I think.
 

ansy1968

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Speaking of TSMC, sign of visible crack are happening, with low demand and restriction on selling chips to China, they have to ask its long time supplier and partner ASML to slow down the deliveries of EUVL equipment especially the HI NA EUVL. And next year is the best time to officially introduced both a working Chinese EUVL and SSA900 22 nm duvi as a gift to Brandon....lol

Like my Brother @horse used to say 2024 is the year for the Chinese to initiate its counter offensive after absorbing all of American punches. Let's see if TSMC may cut its loses and join the Dark side....lol

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Taiwan's TSMC has told its major suppliers to delay the delivery of high-end chipmaking equipment, as the world's top contract chipmaker grows increasingly nervous about customer demand, two sources familiar with the matter said.
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yearofrooster

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View attachment 118628

Spy: Mr. Sullivan, I have some good news and some bad news.

Jake Sullivan: I’ve had my share of bad news already. Tell me the good news.

Spy: Kirin 9000S is not fabbed at SMIC.

Jake Sullivan: I knew the Chinese couldn’t make a breakthrough and probably had to bypass sanctions. What’s the bad news?

Spy: bad news is that it is fabbed in house.
That is also what I head. It says Kirin 9000S is made in 松山湖科学城. Please see attached. I do not know what is going on.
 

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tphuang

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That is also what I head. It says Kirin 9000S is made in 松山湖科学城. Please see attached. I do not know what is going on.
as I discussed earlier. It could very well have been packaged and tested there after the die itself was fabbed at SMSC. Huawei does not have the equipment to produce 30 to 40m Kirin 9000s that's needed next yr

Speaking of TSMC, sign of visible crack are happening, with low demand and restriction on selling chips to China, they have to ask its long time supplier and partner ASML to slow down the deliveries of EUVL equipment especially the HI NA EUVL. And next year is the best time to officially introduced both a working Chinese EUVL and SSA900 22 nm duvi as a gift to Brandon....lol

Like my Brother @horse used to say 2024 is the year for the Chinese to initiate its counter offensive after absorbing all of American punches. Let's see if TSMC may cut its loses and join the Dark side....lol

www.reuters.com

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Taiwan's TSMC has told its major suppliers to delay the delivery of high-end chipmaking equipment, as the world's top contract chipmaker grows increasingly nervous about customer demand, two sources familiar with the matter said.
www.reuters.com
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the #1 thing for them to do is to stop export of Germanium completely. It's ridiculous Ge that are used in 5 nm and below process are not banned completely and helping TSMC profits.

I personally think CXMT has management issues. The people in charge seem to be from outside the semi industry. I am surprised they got this far honestly.
They've had too little competition in China. Now that Swaysure and YMTC are joining in, maybe they will work a little faster. Also, looks like AMEC is close to getting its tools validated.
 

siegecrossbow

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Speaking of TSMC, sign of visible crack are happening, with low demand and restriction on selling chips to China, they have to ask its long time supplier and partner ASML to slow down the deliveries of EUVL equipment especially the HI NA EUVL. And next year is the best time to officially introduced both a working Chinese EUVL and SSA900 22 nm duvi as a gift to Brandon....lol

Like my Brother @horse used to say 2024 is the year for the Chinese to initiate its counter offensive after absorbing all of American punches. Let's see if TSMC may cut its loses and join the Dark side....lol

www.reuters.com

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Taiwan's TSMC has told its major suppliers to delay the delivery of high-end chipmaking equipment, as the world's top contract chipmaker grows increasingly nervous about customer demand, two sources familiar with the matter said.
www.reuters.com
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It's the year the rabbit becomes the dragon, if you know your Chinese zodiac.
 

ansy1968

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That is also what I head. It says Kirin 9000S is made in 松山湖科学城. Please see attached. I do not know what is going on.
Yup as posted by @siegecrossbow, Songshan Lake Science City Dongguan. Huawei scientific base.

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SongshanLake is a picturesque, rolling hilly terrain with carefully designed buildings and streets that take advantage of the original topographical features.


Road to Outstanding—Huawei Experience for the School of the Gifted Young
Date:2020-11-24​

On the morning of November 7th, students from the School of the Gifted Young of University of Science and Technology of China (USTC), along with accompanying teachers and Huawei staff, boarded a flight from Hefei to Shenzhen to embark on "Road to Outstanding" experience, which was carefully prepared by Huawei.
The students experienced a wonderful trip from one stop to the next.
Stop 1: Huawei Southern Factory
Huawei Southern Factory, located in the beautiful scenery of Songshan Lake Hi-Tech Development Park in Dongguan, is Huawei's large platform for manufacturing services.
In the factory, students and teachers listening to the overall introduction of the plant and a variety of advanced technology. Then they visited the production line of Kun Peng server. A seventy-meter-long production line is covered by a highly automated assembly line operations. Quality control is done by artificial intelligence and machine vision. The operation was orderly, interlocking and integrated, allowing the students to truly feel the power of Industry 4.0.
6B8ECEAA23156E631DE1F61499C_0E484490_36F26.jpg

Students visited the laboratory. (Imaged from the School of the Gifted Young)
Stop 2: Maxwell Labs
Huawei's Maxwell Lab has the largest antenna test site. Here, every antenna produced by Huawei is subjected to a variety of artificially simulated extreme natural environments, including vibration tests, stress tests, and temperature tests. The students were also impressed by the spherical near-field test system—StarGate.
639A295081C113E03FA1B6E5861_A318B24D_1D829.jpg

Students visited the StarGate. (Imaged from the School of the Gifted Young)
Stop 3:Songshan Lake Base
The last stop of the first day was the Xi Liu Bei Po Village, located on the shores of Songshan Lake, which is not only Huawei's Research and development center, but also a representative wireless smart office campus.SongshanLake is a picturesque, rolling hilly terrain with carefully designed buildings and streets that take advantage of the original topographical features. Upon entering the park, students were so impressed by the scenery that they couldn't help but take pictures frequently. The accompanying Huawei staff explained that technological innovation is not something that can be thought up by employees working overtime alone, so Huawei has built this fairytale-like town so that researchers can make the most of their talents in a beautiful, laid-back environment.
Stop 4: Huawei Bantian Base
Here they visited Huawei's Digital Transformation Exhibition Hall and Galileo Exhibition Hall. The digital transformation exhibition hall comprehensively showed Huawei's digital solutions in various vertical industries such as smart city, smart mine, e-government, emergency medical, and cloud data center. The Galileo Exhibit Hall is a mysterious, tech-savvy showroom that showcases the key features and powerful connectivity of 5G mobile technology, as well as the revolutionary changes 5G is bringing to new media, smart driving, smart factories, smart healthcare and more.
Stop 5: Huawei Bantian Base
An important part of the Road to Outstanding is a thematic exchange with Huawei leaders and experts on the topic of technology and innovation talent development. Huawei experts gave a comprehensive overview of Huawei's history and key technology products, and shared Huawei's mission and current technology challenges. Huawei and the School of the Gifted Young have maintained a friendly relationship for nearly 30 years.In 2019, in order to actively explore the model of joint school-enterprise training of high-level and innovative talents, the School of the Gifted Young launched joint training cooperation with Huawei, supporting the participation of undergraduate students of the School of the Gifted Young in research projects, adopting a double mentor system to tutor students interested in scientific research, and organizing a series of project-related reports and seminars. The joint training program for 2020-2021 will soon be released to students after careful preparation.
 

Phead128

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I think if the question is "are there any prospects of selling LPP EUV machines outside of China," the answer should be "yes, but in the medium to long term" and of course not just to SMIC but to potential other international fabs that other nations are likely to aim and set up themselves.

Future potential customers for Chinese LPP EUV may well be companies and organizations that have yet to be founded, and if we are talking about the idea of SMIC setting up fabs outside of China, then that would depend on the geopolitical relationship with other host nations in the medium to long term future.


This isn't to say a large customer base in the future is guaranteed (far from it), but I do think at present that we should not dismiss the idea that LPP EUV machines will not sought to be exported in future simply due to the sheer world of possibilities that it offers.

I think the question is "is it more beneficial for SIOM/CIOMP to infringe on ASML's EUV IP to rapidly produce EUVs and maintain Huawei's competitive over the next 3-5+ years?"

OR "should SIOM/CIOMP invest the time in developing their own unique technology, which would delay production but potentially lead to long-term LPP EUV exports or EUV fabs abroad?"

Personally, I think in the context of this technology race, we urgently need EUV capabilities, preferably yesterday. ASML EUV IP became irrelevant once they excluded themselves from China market. Future EUV exports or EUV fabs are not a concern right now, and everyone is on-shoring now. OBOR or BRI members can benefit from 90nm-DUV fabs with SMEE equipment, but the crown jewels (EUV fabs) should be kept on the mainland. Taiwan's EUV fab off-shoring strategy is due to island's unique security situation, more of a survival technique in exchange for security protection than a model for emulation.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Now I know why ASML will continue selling its advance DUVI like NXT 2050i to China, with traditional clients forced to defer orders due to economic uncertainties, China is the only bright spot with huge demand, they may also sell their EUVi. I think @BlackWindMnt comment about the Dutch turning a blind eye on US demand is spot on, they will wait for the official unveiling of SMEE EUVi and SSA900 22NM DUVi to give them the reason to resume selling as the Raison d'etre doesn't exist anymore.
 
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