Chinese semiconductor industry

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Phead128

Phead128

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The US sanctions goal has always been 0% yield on all nodes below 14nm. So any yield >0% for nodes <14nm is an objective failure, not even considering military applications doesn't need to be advanced or even commercial profitable. Total failure of sanctions!

Plus, China make the leap from 14nm to 7nm in under 2 years whereas the most optimistic is China getting 7nm by 2030, which 10 years later. Epic failure.

My sense is US is running out of cards that don't backfire in someway or form to hurt itself too. They already spent most of the hard hitting bullets.
 
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european_guy

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Phead128 said:
The US sanctions goal has always been 0% yield on all nodes below 14nm. So any yield >0% for nodes <14nm is an objective failure, not even considering military applications doesn't need to be advanced or even commercial profitable. Total failure of sanctions!

Plus, China make the leap from 14nm to 7nm in under 2 years whereas the most optimistic is China getting 7nm by 2030, which 10 years later. Epic failure.

My sense is US is running out of cards that don't backfire in someway or form to hurt itself too. They already spent most of the hard hitting bullets.
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Regarding semiconductor manufacturing not much remains: US SME companies are already out and we saw here form AMEC's report that Chinese companies are quickly closing the tech gap (impressive results btw).

Regarding US "allies", Japan and Holland, their position is now much weaker compared to just one year ago. Japan will go out of the market even without sanctions, in a natural process of substitution that is panning out right now. Lithography machine is the hardest to replace, especially in volumes, but if US forces ASML out (the only real effective weapon remaining to US regarding semi manufacturing), even in this extreme case, it will be more or less 1 year delay considering that the SMEE prototype is currently under active test on site right now and in case of a real emergency everything will be sped up.
 
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ansy1968

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european_guy said:
Regarding semiconductor manufacturing not much remains: US SME companies are already out and we saw here form AMEC's report that Chinese companies are quickly closing the tech the gap (impressive results btw).

Regarding US "allies", Japan and Holland, their position is now much weaker compared to just one year ago. Japan will go out of the market even without sanctions, in a natural process of substitution that is panning out right now. Lithography machine is the hardest to replace, especially in volumes, but if US forces ASML out (the only real effective weapon remaining to US regarding semi manufacturing), even in this extreme case, it will be more or less 1 year delay considering that the SMEE prototype is currently under active test on site right now and in case of a real emergency everything will be sped up.
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Maybe a change in strategy? Why not flood the Chinese market with ASML DUVL or even EUVL? So instead of focusing on SMIC and Huawei why not nip the bud of SMEE before it become big and threatening? It's a strategic move and anybody with a functioning brain know this is the answer they are looking for.

I think this is the advise and recommendation by the Dutch gov't to the US, BUT I doubt the American will listen, any L is a big lost of face and prestige for them.
 
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Biscuits

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Phead128 said:
The US sanctions goal has always been 0% yield on all nodes below 14nm. So any yield >0% for nodes <14nm is an objective failure, not even considering military applications doesn't need to be advanced or even commercial profitable. Total failure of sanctions!

Plus, China make the leap from 14nm to 7nm in under 2 years whereas the most optimistic is China getting 7nm by 2030, which 10 years later. Epic failure.

My sense is US is running out of cards that don't backfire in someway or form to hurt itself too. They already spent most of the hard hitting bullets.
Click to expand...
If the Chinese government wanted to clash directly, they could always have banned exports of parts and technology to any US supplying electronics company. That would have split the market in 2 and arrested American semiconductor progress.

But it is now clear that rather than splitting the market to slow down Americans, China is more interesting in coming for the whole thing, so it is outsourcing the competition against US state giants to private actors, keeping the global market intact.

In a handful of years, GPUs and CPUs will go the way of cameras, lenses and solar panels, with China exerting global market control and only scraps left for America's sluggish, overly government patronized zombies. Another severe beatdown is imminent, and there's nothing US can do to stop it.
 
tphuang

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I've deleted a whole bunch of off topic, political or gloating posts.

This is not a celebration thread. If you want to gloat, at least post some technical related material rather than only talking about politics or geopolitics

@KYli if you have to start your post with this is a copium article, then don't post it. half of these kind of articles are posted by you. If these articles are nothing but copium, why are we wasting time with them?
 
tphuang

tphuang

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Huawei has issued a RF filter patent
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This one improves the power of RF filter, so that mobile phone filters can be used in other places like 5G small stations.

RF filter used in Mate 60 phones remain a secret. It will be interesting to find out whose BAW filter is getting used in there and whether this can be expanded across all Chinese made phones
 
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kentchang

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KYli said:
It has been sometimes that the Chinese government has banned the use of iPhone in certain agencies. Not sure why WSJ reported now. Could be the Chinese government has become more serious in the bans.
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The timing may be interesting. Perhaps a not-so-subtle message to the US that Apple iPhone sales is in play if US announces more restrictions on Huawei/SMIC?
 
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