I think we are going to have to wait a little time to see the details.
While this is a semiconductor thread, this issue has significant military components.
Qorvo is a huge supplier of modules for Raytheon radars
Of all the so called benefits from US sanctions against China against military industry complex, this ban of gallium would affect Qorvo's ability to supply GaN modules to Raytheon. This actually would have detrimental affect on US MIC. I haven't looked into Germanium yet.
Of course, if they can cause Cree, TI & other American firms to loose civilian GaN market, it would be a huge plus.
Same with Japanese.
NXP depends on how the cooperation with Dutch. I assume this is to warn Dutch to not go overboard.
Rest of Europeans, I assume this would not affect ST or Infineon other than additional step
gallium is not rare earth
Why would you think this is going to be pretty mild if this will scare western controls into decoupling?
this is not about processing these material. This is export of Gallium and Germanium. The former they have near monopoly