Chinese semiconductor industry

latenlazy said:

I mean...even that dude’s economic analysis is kind of...dumb. By his logic the US and the EU shouldn’t be able to have completely self contained aviation stacks, when they basically own the most advanced capabilities almost entirely within their own borders. He doesn’t factor in price effect on global trade and global marketshare when you’ve fully saturated a caprice market of 1 billion domestic customers, nor does he factor in growing base of R&D as the domestic industry increases in size.

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PiSigma said:

Are you talking about Ron Vara, The imaginary friend of Navarro? Or gadgetcool?

I sometimes think gadgetcool is another one of Navarro's imaginary friends.

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gadgetcool5 said:

China's semiconductor task is nigh impossible:

"The manufacturing chain for any given semiconductor is extraordinarily complex and relies on as many as 300 different inputs, including raw wafers, commodity chemicals, specialty chemicals, and bulk gases; all

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and

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by

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of 50 different types of processing and testing tools. Those tools and materials are sourced from around the world, and are typically highly engineered. Further, most of

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in semiconductor manufacturing, such as

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and metrology machines, rely on complex supply chains that are also highly optimized, and incorporate hundreds of different companies delivering modules, lasers, mechatronics, control chips, optics, power supplies, and more. The “installed base” within a semiconductor factory today represents the cumulation of hundreds of thousands of person-years of R&D development. The manufacturing process that integrates them into a single manufacturing chain could represent hundreds of thousands more.

The types of products for which these manufacturing processes are designed are nearly as varied as the manufacturing inputs themselves. There are at least 20 major semiconductor product categories (from optical sensors to battery management modules to CPUs) and each category usually contains hundreds of different stock keeping units—distinct items for sale—for specialized applications. This complexity leads to a large market filled with myriad niches, in which specialized world-class companies have built defensible market positions through decades of targeted research and development.

Complexity also makes semiconductors a winner-take-all industry. The top one or two players in any given niche—whether a small one, such as furnaces, or a giant one, such as server CPUs—

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all the economic profits in that niche due to scale, learning efficiencies, and high switching costs for customers. It is rare to see newcomers break into these oligopoly positions. For instance, the market leader in graphics processing units (GPUs), Nvidia,

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the segment in 1999 and never relinquished its lead. While China has early-stage startups in the GPU segment, its market share is essentially zero. TSMC, based in Taiwan, was the first dedicated competitor in the foundry segment and has not relinquished its lead in its 33-year history. Indeed, SMIC, China’s leading competitor in the foundry segment,

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four or five years behind TSMC in technology, despite almost two decades of investment."

Even if China succeeds in becoming 100% independent, it will still fail, because:

For one thing, the economics of an “only in China for China” supply chain do not work. Even if Chinese companies at each stage of the value chain win 80% of potential business from every potential Chinese customer, Chinese companies would collectively generate less than 15% of the industry’s overall R&D capacity—and likely less as prices in China tend to be lower, leaving less profit to re-invest in R&D. Such an indigenization strategy would still leave China behind the rest of the world: How can products developed with 15% of the world’s R&D compete with those from entrenched companies spending collectively far more? Of course, PRC government subsidies can and are closing that funding gap. But keeping such large-scale subsidies in place for the decades required to build the industry would likely generate a set of companies so dependent on government largesse that they may not be commercially viable.

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This is why, at the end of the day, this is not a purely technological or economic problem. China needs allies and good foreign relations abroad so that its companies have access to markets, supplies, talent, and R&D from other countries to reinforce its own. This is not optional; it is mandatory.

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manqiangrexue said:

SMIC doesn't have to produce the lithograph either because SMEE and apparently other Chinese companies will take care of the lithograph. TSMC doesn't have soft power; it's just too tiny to be a challenge so nobody bothers to squish it. Just because you can walk around outside without someone caving your face in doesn't mean you have soft power. You don't even know what soft power is, do you? LOL

You can't even compare 2 things because your head is so full of bullcrap. SMIC and TSMC are in line with each other and their semiconductor designs are compared. It's not SMEE+SMIC being compared to ASML+TSMC. If Dr. Liang's work is wasted, then it's a waste to produce any components to any machine awaiting the final assembly. Your spinning is the waste here and it will convince no one.

This forum is too generous to low-quality posters like you.

Hanjian like you can say 200 years if it makes you feel better but still, imaginary numbers don't mean anything. There may be a lull in spending as it waits for the lithograph. When SMIC needs it, when any Chinese semiconductor/lithography can use it, the CCP can give it a capital investment boost comparable to the GDP of a small country.

The dumbest part about your posts here (there are dumber parts elsewhere) is that there are posters like WTAN giving live updates to China's progress that you can't find on Western news and you're still specifically seeking out the "analysis" of people who have a track record of being wrong every time on China, regurgitating the shallow crap that they say like it's fact. China has always and will always innovate what is denied to it and put your Western dung-eating arguments on borrowed time.

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latenlazy said:

I was talking about the Brooking’s report but it applies to anyone who reads this stuff and believes it without applying any critical thinking.

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Pkp88 said:

No offense to WTAN but I can't even find references to these developments in Chinese news (beyond people standing in front of a poster announcing a construction project for a supposed plant).

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Pkp88 said:

We've been hearing these SMEE rumors for some time now and nothing has materialized...

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Pkp88 said:

I get the argument that you don't need EUV except for the most advanced use-cases but w/o control over consumer tech it's going to be very hard to be anything beyond a middle-income country.

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tamsen_ikard said:

US just banned Xiaomi from US imports. Haha I love this. I always hated the fact that these Chinese companies were so selfish and short term thinking when Huawei was banned from US imports. They just kept buying from US without ever trying to devote their vast resources together to come up with a unified alternative to Android and semiconductor. Now they will pay the price that they surely deserve.

The more Chinese companies US bans the better. They need to stop buying from US NOW and focus on their own tech even if they have to steal to get it.

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