I guess Chinese customers better front load all their orders then if there's no viable Chinese alternative yet.
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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i think you have also read all latest update regarding SSA800i on this thread posted by Havok .. we are just 1 year away for small scale production if all goes well. means verification process of local immersion 28nm machine.
let them block. it will slow down the expansions but from 2024, real game will begin.
Actually they still don't know. I would not rule out that it is indeed the whole DUV immersion line....we will see.
What seems assumed is that there will not be a suspension of service and maintenance, like for US manufacturers.
At this point in time, not having the possibility to buy new DUV immersion machines does not seem the worst that could happen to Chinese foundries. I am more concerned about the consumables from Japan, especially photoresists and chemicals.
It is foreseeable that China will pause a bit, say 1/2 years on advanced nodes expansion....and then will restart to expand capacity but with fully localized tools. Much worse it would be if fabs would be forced to stop production because there are no materials.
They need at least 6- 9 months to pass this law ... In those 9 months, I don't know how much ASML will sell DUV 2050i and 2100i
Typically year sales maybe 30-40 units? Won't be much more. So 9 months maybe 20-30.
Good. If nothing else, this will be the end of the "will they, won't they" taking up this thread's oxygen. This will finally provide the impetus for Chinese toolmakers and their customers to take their situation seriously. Spending a year "verifying" a tool and another year deciding if they like the user interface is not taking their situation seriously.
If havok's timelines have any validity, they're completely unacceptable now. Corners are going to have to be cut and problems sorted out in production.
If havok's timelines have any validity, they're completely unacceptable now. Corners are going to have to be cut and problems sorted out in production.
Private corporations always do what's most profitable. That's the point of their entire existence. The real shame here is on mercantile appeasers who populated ranks in Beijing until 2019. The lengths China went to appease hegemonists in Washington are ridiculous. And yes, I wouldn't rule out everything down to the 1980i getting banned. No wonder the institutions are getting even more centralized in the ongoing congress. The naivety of the 2011-2019 period should never be repeated.
It's always easier to do what is comfortable though. And no one in Beijing, I think Xi included, believed that the US gov would go full retard and try to bludgeon China with their bloody severed arm.
btw guys, I understand this is an emotional topic for a lot of people, but let's keep this to technical stuff and facts as much as we can.
I had to delete a post earlier because it was posted without a source. I just deleted a post now because I don't want this to thread to degrade to discussions on what kind of drastic retaliations China can take.
Let's keep this to factual comments on what possible sanctions look like and how long it will take for things to be implemented. And go from there.
From what I can see, ASML has stated that it expects no change to its 2023 forecast from China. And I believe that SMIC has some 2050i on order, so whether all or most of them get delivered is a big question. Beyond that, it would be very surprising to me if ASML isn't given some idea of what might get sanctioned. And their comments are pretty telling, I think. Regardless, I think the shorter term impact is pretty minimal
To me, the Dutch gov't is just trying to drag this out as long as possible and give ASML some loop holes to work through. The fact that they are going through proper government procedure is a good thing for China, because that will take time. Summer is still a long time away.
On the other hand, this Japanese move to just stop supplier of KRF photoresist to YMTC is a more serious issue. That just came out of nowhere.
There needs to be support from Chinese gov't to massively support the expansion of domestic photoresist production. All the tools in the world won't matter if you don't have materials needed.
I had to delete a post earlier because it was posted without a source. I just deleted a post now because I don't want this to thread to degrade to discussions on what kind of drastic retaliations China can take.
Let's keep this to factual comments on what possible sanctions look like and how long it will take for things to be implemented. And go from there.
From what I can see, ASML has stated that it expects no change to its 2023 forecast from China. And I believe that SMIC has some 2050i on order, so whether all or most of them get delivered is a big question. Beyond that, it would be very surprising to me if ASML isn't given some idea of what might get sanctioned. And their comments are pretty telling, I think. Regardless, I think the shorter term impact is pretty minimal
To me, the Dutch gov't is just trying to drag this out as long as possible and give ASML some loop holes to work through. The fact that they are going through proper government procedure is a good thing for China, because that will take time. Summer is still a long time away.
On the other hand, this Japanese move to just stop supplier of KRF photoresist to YMTC is a more serious issue. That just came out of nowhere.
There needs to be support from Chinese gov't to massively support the expansion of domestic photoresist production. All the tools in the world won't matter if you don't have materials needed.
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