Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
- Start date
- Status
I saw this statement which should alarm people in Intel and AMD
The thing is big Chinese cloud players like Alibaba has come out with their own server chips like Yitian-710. For other datacenter, Hygon/Phytium/Loongson server CPUs are getting better by the day. We are at the point where SMIC should be fully ramped on its SN1 production. Full year 2022 report will tell a lot. But there could definitely be a future for Intel where China shrinks to 5-10% of its revenue instead of 20% like now. By 2024, Loongson's new server CPUs will be very competitive to AMD and Intel.
Again, without knowing what Japanese agreed to, this is kind of meaningless. Most of the tools that China purchase from Japan are not in the sanction range. And I really don't see the point of posting every Bloomberg article on this without more specifics.
One thing is for sure, China will use this opportunity to retaliate against Japanese industries that are vulnerable.
A little more on this Intel stuff from Dylan Patel. I know, but this thread is entertaining
he is right about a couple of things here. This short sighted approach by corporate America holds back R&D and advancement. The need to always maintain high margins doesn't work. Intel revenue is terrible for Q1 and so is are its capex cuts.
I've talked long and hard about how Boeing's strategy of not doing new projects and hoarding cash is going to kill them in the civil airliner industry. We will see what AMD chooses to do now. But if you are sitting somewhere in Loongson HQ, you are loving this. 3D5000 is already competitive. 3A6000 and 3D6000 later this year will be really competitive. SMIC just needs to be able to mass produce these chips.
Think about it this way, Intel revenue in China is about 25% of its overall revenue. $20 billion a year in data center and $40 billion a year in personal computing. so let's say China is buying $5 billion a year of server chips and $10 billion a year of desktop chips.
The global desktop market is about 60 million and laptop is 280 million a year?
Based on this, Server cpu market is around 30 million a year
So if you are Chinese gov't and looking to replace Intel/AMD chips with domestic chips for desktop/server market, you need to make around 15 million desktop CPUs a year and 7 million server CPUs a year? And we know, there is a desktop replacement program in China right now of 50 million corporate desktops to go domestic.
We also know that Phytium sold around 2 million D2000 in 2021 and Hygon had higher revenue and Loongson had lower revenue. Hygon revenue for 2022 was over 5billion RMB. If we calculate each desktop CPU to be a little over 1000 RMB, then it's quite conceivable they are selling 4 million desktop CPUs a year. Let's say Loongson is on a 1 million a year pace by Q4 of 2022. In 2023, they should step up to 10 million desktop CPUs and 15 million by 2024. Doesn't leave any room left for Intel/AMD. And now that Loongson has an increasingly competitive server CPU also, will that also force great adoption of domestic CPUs in servers? I think so.
he is right about a couple of things here. This short sighted approach by corporate America holds back R&D and advancement. The need to always maintain high margins doesn't work. Intel revenue is terrible for Q1 and so is are its capex cuts.
I've talked long and hard about how Boeing's strategy of not doing new projects and hoarding cash is going to kill them in the civil airliner industry. We will see what AMD chooses to do now. But if you are sitting somewhere in Loongson HQ, you are loving this. 3D5000 is already competitive. 3A6000 and 3D6000 later this year will be really competitive. SMIC just needs to be able to mass produce these chips.
Think about it this way, Intel revenue in China is about 25% of its overall revenue. $20 billion a year in data center and $40 billion a year in personal computing. so let's say China is buying $5 billion a year of server chips and $10 billion a year of desktop chips.
The global desktop market is about 60 million and laptop is 280 million a year?
Based on this, Server cpu market is around 30 million a year
So if you are Chinese gov't and looking to replace Intel/AMD chips with domestic chips for desktop/server market, you need to make around 15 million desktop CPUs a year and 7 million server CPUs a year? And we know, there is a desktop replacement program in China right now of 50 million corporate desktops to go domestic.
We also know that Phytium sold around 2 million D2000 in 2021 and Hygon had higher revenue and Loongson had lower revenue. Hygon revenue for 2022 was over 5billion RMB. If we calculate each desktop CPU to be a little over 1000 RMB, then it's quite conceivable they are selling 4 million desktop CPUs a year. Let's say Loongson is on a 1 million a year pace by Q4 of 2022. In 2023, they should step up to 10 million desktop CPUs and 15 million by 2024. Doesn't leave any room left for Intel/AMD. And now that Loongson has an increasingly competitive server CPU also, will that also force great adoption of domestic CPUs in servers? I think so.
can you send the pdf?
- Status