Like I said previously, all the stuff we're seeing (and all the great stuff you're posting) is just the visible tip of the iceberg. What's going on beneath the surface and out of sight is absolutely massive.
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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I think YMTC had already finished filling their first fab with equipment. So they likely can produce like 100,000 wafers per month.
The sanctions will still likely have a large impact since they were just finishing constructing the shell for their second factory (another 100,000 wpm) and would soon begin moving equipment into it. With the sanctions it is unlikely much of this equipment will be delivered. NAND requires advanced etching and test equipment in order to have good yields. Still, it is not like China does not have at least some companies working in this area so who knows.
Abu Dhabi owns GlobalFoundries. Supposedly they wanted them to build a semiconductor factory in the Emirates. Yet it never happened. Guess why.
US of course, but now they have their leverage on their hand. I think MBS can enforcing dutch to give EUV tech
I'm sure there are some effects on the sanctions. It's unclear to us how much stocking up they did prior to the sanction, so they may be able to increase some production in the second factory. But importantly, I think we are seeing that the sanctions at least has not stopped them from ramping up to 100k wpm. And that they are able to continue to function without American companies providing servicing.
The US really pressured them not to open shop in the UAE?
The news claimed it was because of lack of money to build the fabs in the Emirates. But that is clear BS. Since the Emiratis financed over $10 billion USD expansion of Malta, NY factory in the US.
I heard several people back then say the US blocked the transfer of technology to build a factory in the Middle East.
As others have pointed out, this wasn't surprising. The moans and groans from the Europeans surrounding the IRA act was just a negotiating tactic. Fundamentally, Europe remains America's colony.
The difference here is that this has been a slow-moving train, so China has had years to prepare. Litography is the piece of the semiconductor puzzle where China is furthest behind and it is the hardest one to solve. So we shouldn't expect miraculous progress towards getting an EUV. For military purposes, you wouldn't need that anyway and for critical inputs, China's current capacity is 100% self-sufficient.
Worst case scenario, China simply will have to skate by on older nodes for a number of years before fully catching up. I doubt it will be cataclysmic. I'm long-term optimistic China will solve it, but I think some may underestimate the short-term friction in getting there.
Russia hasn't been allowed to buy lithography machines for about a decade.
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