Chinese semiconductor industry

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olalavn

olalavn

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tphuang said:
I do think that asml would do okay without Chinese sales. After all, it's only 15 to 20% of their revenue. Much less than 30% for amat, kla and lam. The big concern for asml is losing their monopoly. That would be a much largerhit on asml and dutch economy. As such, it makes sense for them to continue to improve their arfi scanners like nxt2100i. That would be needed for smic's advanced node production in terms of improving yield.

Asml only announced their expansion in china recently to 1500 staff. I don't think they would have done that without assurances from Dutch government that they can continue to sell. This is likely the biggest push from us government until 2024 imo. Unless something drastic happens, smic should be able to get all the scanners they need for smsc expansion and possibly even a lot more than that.

Long term, I do wonder if asml will be allowed to sell euv to china if they can find non American replacement to those parts. The threat of a Chinese competitor in that space is looming for asml.

Aren't we at least semi confident that smee is capable of early generation arfi scanner by this point? It seems like they are at least winning more bid. The future of smee is also questionable given the rumor that cetc and Huawei are also looking to build their own scanners. They will all be using the same ecosystem that smee is using. There is no reason to believe that cetc can't produce something better.

I think smee has a nice head start and have large backers now, but they do need to ramp up production and improve their products if they do not want to be ousted by other Chinese companies.
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I wouldn't be surprised by Huawei... as Hubble's investments are directly aimed at DUV 193nm arfi lithography
 
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tokenanalyst

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tphuang said:
Aren't we at least semi confident that smee is capable of early generation arfi scanner by this point? It seems like they are at least winning more bid.
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They have it, but is not just about having the immersion scanners but also competing directly with ASML. Even if SMEE immersion scanners are decent enough is probably that fabs still want to keep their relationship with ASML for along as possible, not just because the scanners but also for the services that they provide. from all I have been seeing looks like is going to be more like a middle ground were ASML and SMEE scanners coexist together. Keeping ASML but also pushing SMEE to become better.

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tphuang said:
The future of smee is also questionable given the rumor that cetc and Huawei are also looking to build their own scanners. They will all be using the same ecosystem that smee is using.
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I don't know if U-Precision, CHEERTECH, RSLaser and E-Town have exclusivity deals with SMEE.
But I wouldn't underestimate Huawei competence to pull of their own lithography systems if they could have access to those subsystems.
tphuang said:
There is no reason to believe that cetc can't produce something better.
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The are more involved in mask aligners and steppers, but they are incorporating UVLEDs into their system, which is more efficient than the old mercury vapor lamps.
tphuang said:
I think smee has a nice head start and have large backers now, but they do need to ramp up production and improve their products if they do not want to be ousted by other Chinese companies.
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I do agree.
 
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Overlord

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pbd456 said:
US can do anything it wants. ASML would no longer have access to US dollars (not just US markets). cant even sell any EUV to anyone due to it uses US technology. but this would have far reaching consequences.
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Actually USA can't sanction asml even if it sells EUV to China, because asml has monopoly on EUV, if it's stops selling then you won't get any good high tech product like iphones, samsung high end devices.

Asml follows USA because they're allies/puppet ( NATO member) of USA.
 
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Topazchen

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Overlord said:
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Actually USA can't sanction asml even if it sells EUV to China, because asml has monopoly on EUV, if it's stops selling then you won't get any good high tech product like iphones, samsung high end devices.

Asml follows USA because they're allies/puppet ( NATO member) of USA.
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Sure ASML & Netherlands have leverage here.
 
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european_guy

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tphuang said:
I do think that asml would do okay without Chinese sales. After all, it's only 15 to 20% of their revenue. Much less than 30% for amat, kla and lam. The big concern for asml is losing their monopoly.
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Yes, but it's not always just a question of financial numbers in an excel file. There is a reality out there, there is a history and a story to be told. ASML is in China since 1988, more than 30 years. They have 1500 people in China, including 3 R&D centers, they installed more than 1000 machine in China alone.

This is a value, I mean a real value, not only a financial and business value but a value of history and life of people. It is the whole career of many people. ASML will do anything they can to protect their presence in China, because it's part of their history, the history of thousands of people in China and in Europe that worked together successfully for more than 30 years.
 
horse

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mmbro said:
WASHINGTON, D.C. – U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), along with Senators Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), Ted Cruz (R-Texas), and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) sent a letter to President Biden demanding he act quickly to prevent Huawei from building the Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Company (PXW) semiconductor plant. The opening of this plant would put the United States at a disadvantage in countering Huawei, advance Communist China’s Military-Civil Fusion campaign, put American semiconductor companies at a disadvantage, and pose a national security concern.

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Hey! I already posted this, a couple of days ago. Here is the link.

https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/t/funny-stuff-thread-to-loosen-your-day.3096/post-902186

They were serious. The reality is more funny than serious.

:D
 
tphuang

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olalavn said:

German Zeiss Group buys land and builds factory in China for the first time....​

wow, V.W, BASF, BMW, now it's Zesis.... China's optical industry is approaching the level of Germany, and Japan...
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european_guy said:
Yes, but it's not always just a question of financial numbers in an excel file. There is a reality out there, there is a history and a story to be told. ASML is in China since 1988, more than 30 years. They have 1500 people in China, including 3 R&D centers, they installed more than 1000 machine in China alone.

This is a value, I mean a real value, not only a financial and business value but a value of history and life of people. It is the whole career of many people. ASML will do anything they can to protect their presence in China, because it's part of their history, the history of thousands of people in China and in Europe that worked together successfully for more than 30 years.
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All good points. It's very hard to leave a market where you invested for 30 years. Those relationships drive customer loyalty. Given that ASML/Dutch gov't have managed to resist US gov't pressure and found ways to better support their Chinese customers.

For example, "
  • In our DUV business, we shipped the first TWINSCAN NXT:2100i to a customer. This newest immersion scanner enables over 20% improvement of on-product** overlay."
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That's clearly delivered for SMIC imo.

I used their investor relationship document.
31% revenue are Arfi out of 4.255 billion EUR -> 1.319 billion EUR
20 Arfi machines -> 65.9 million EUR
This is higher than previously. I think this is a combination of inflation + higher cost of NXT:2050i and 2100i. I believe a fraction of Arfi they sold are the more advanced models.

China is 15% of revenue -> 638 million EUR. This would indicate China (SMIC specifically) did not take too many scanners this quarter. My guess is maybe 7 or 8 Arfi scanner and 10 to 15 other scanners.

I also do want to bring up gain your previous idea of China build fabs in Europe. So, we've seen more European companies open up factories in China due to high energy prices and probably other reasons. We are also seeing European companies buying Chinese chips for auto sectors (at least that's what I think). I wonder if we are going to see more Chinese fabs in Europe so they can get closer to their customers. For example, CRRC, BYD and Silan in Europe.
 
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tokenanalyst

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Siasun Robot established a semiconductor equipment company in Suzhou with a registered capital of 800 million yuan​


According to WeChat news, Tianyancha shows that on October 9th, Suzhou Xinshinuo Semiconductor Equipment Co., Ltd. was established. The company's registered capital is 800 million yuan, and its legal representative is Wang Hongyu. Its business scope includes: artificial intelligence application software development, computer software and hardware and peripheral equipment manufacturing, industrial automatic control system device manufacturing, electronic special equipment manufacturing, industrial robot manufacturing, etc.
 
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