Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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US just wiped out all of its intelligence assets in Chinese IC. Seems pretty dumb imo …
This is how it works I believe in a factory.
There is a machine in production that was purchased from some company.
Something breaks down in that machine, so the company calls the rep. The rep comes, orders a part to fix the machine. That machine goes back into production.
Now it is like Ghostbusters, who you gonna call?
The Chinese company in IC cannot call the American rep, because he's gone home.
So, the Chinese company will try to fix that part themselves. If they take apart the machine, and happen to borrow some ideas, like who is going to know?
People who wrote these laws in Washington DC, never been in a factory in their entire lives.
The Americans, predictably react with glee to these new restrictions on the Chinese IC industry.
The Chinese, predictably react with salivating over the handover of American IP free of charge, because like how anyone is going to find out, they all gone home. By the way, can you give us the manual before you go, give you a hung bao!
The rest of the players, predictably react cautiously. They keep their thoughts and emotions to themselves. Since they are suppose to be American friends, they cannot offend America. On the other hand, all they can see are dollar signs!
Got to wonder what triggered the Americans to make this drastic move?
The Americans must be willing to live with it. The Chinese will intensify the competition, worldwide.
That is the nature of the beast. Huawei and ZTE, they grew, then went global. The same will happen to Chinese IC.
What is truly odd, that there is only a limited market for the fastest cutting edge chips.
It is great to have, but not an absolute.
People can also use older chips and scale it up, in case they want their servers to reach a certain metric.
It's like they never heard of the word scalable.
Anyways, will stop the rant here.
The servicing of these American machines in Chinese foundries, that is a curious question.
When we drive our car to the dealership, sometimes they plug it into some other machine and get a diagnostic of the engine and all of that.
These tools, sold by the American IC companies, should have some diagnostic tools to assess the tool if it is working properly.
Wonder who has possession of that?
My guess is that it would probably be the foundry.
All machines that rely on a lot of electronics, tend to have something like that. Even the computer I am using to type this message has options to get into the diagnostic screen on the boot up.
Wonder if there is more? Did the rep have more specialized tools to do diagnostics on the tool?
How do we know?
What is funny, the people who wrote these new laws, probably do not know either. No one was consulted.
Bwahahahahahahahaaaaa!
When we drive our car to the dealership, sometimes they plug it into some other machine and get a diagnostic of the engine and all of that.
These tools, sold by the American IC companies, should have some diagnostic tools to assess the tool if it is working properly.
Wonder who has possession of that?
My guess is that it would probably be the foundry.
All machines that rely on a lot of electronics, tend to have something like that. Even the computer I am using to type this message has options to get into the diagnostic screen on the boot up.
Wonder if there is more? Did the rep have more specialized tools to do diagnostics on the tool?
How do we know?
What is funny, the people who wrote these new laws, probably do not know either. No one was consulted.
Bwahahahahahahahaaaaa!
These kind of questions, even addressed to specific people, always raise some some doubts in me.
I guess everybody here knows about or . This forum is not a random one about cooking or fishing. There is a lot of information here that could be interesting or even sensible for many interested parties. We all should be aware of this, especially in these difficult times.
I am not accusing this specific account @theorlonator of anything (although I may have some doubts), and I don't want to suggest a line to follow, I just want to raise awareness on this topic.
It is foreseeable that the next round of attacks from US will be against Chinese semi equipment firms, so be aware of what information you write!
Bro is this enough to force Beijing back to the negotiating table, My opinion with a weaker hand, the Americans are trying to increase their leverage cause the aftermath of Pelosi Taiwan visit, Xi is ignoring Brandon call. Washington DC is losing on all front from economics to geopolitics, you can sense the desperation and I think with the economic downturn the incoming 2 years is enough cushion for the Chinese tech company to recover with limited damage as they adjust accordingly.
Addendum: After talking with @Coalescence , we have made a conclusion that we may see a modern day Qian Xuesen as the American return to McCarthyism in implementing its China Policy.
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Bro, I think this is a one-way-ticket. There won't be turning back, from either side.
I think in the future there will be two separate blocks in semiconductors, including equipment, manufacturing and design. As is today for space industry.
It's a kind of historical moment that we are witnessing in these weeks.
Yes, I agree on McCarthyism. When you go after single people you may refer to McCarthyism.
US is in deep crisis on many fronts (mostly internals). But this is not a good news for the world. It is a bad news for the world. When an empire declines, it never does it quietly. Always there is chaos and disruption.
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You know what brother ansy1968?
There is nothing anyone can say to me to convince me otherwise, the American government has no clue what it is doing with the IC industry with all their new bans against Chinese interests.
This fight in IC between the US government and Chinese companies, we have seen before, which was the US government versus Huawei 5G.
Although the fight and battlefields, strengths and weaknesses, are different, there is one overriding theme from the Americans.
It is that expression. Don't bring a knife to a gunfight.
Here in this fight over IC tech, the Americans bring the lawyers and not engineers. Just like what they did to Huawei. The lawyers with their briefcases came, and not the engineers wearing geeky glasses and calculators!
Today, the Chinese IC industry is booming. Much of that are due to recent history with these bans. Today, literally, there is news Intel will layoff 20000 people. Are those 20000 lawyers at Intel that will be laid off? China is trying to find all the IC engineers it can. America lays them off!
Who knows, maybe it can work out for the Americans in the end. Those 20000 former Intel engineers could all go work at that TSMC fab they are building in Arizona.
With the US government war against Huawei 5G, the problem was the US had no alternatives to offer.
With the US government war against Chinese IC industry, the problem here is the future, who will be more competitive?
The current day, the Chinese companies have stockpiled chips, and they have stockpiled chip making equipment. Along with the indigenous attempts to make IC equipment, the Chinese are moving forward.
The Americans, as of today, their leading semiconductor company intends to layoff 20000 workers.
Then we have the spectacle of the US government extolling their power, with the usual cheer leading by the mainstream media.
Uh, like, the most basic point today, one side is expanding capacity. The other side is retrenching, with layoffs!
Yet, there is glee in some American reports about these new bans.
Something is wrong with this picture, to put it mildly.
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