Chinese semiconductor industry

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Pkp88

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For ASML, US employees barred from aiding China include US citizens, green card holders, foreign nationals living in US.

A message from ASML management to its employees.

View attachment 99315

In case anyone wondering about the veracity of the message

David Kim is currently head of Legal & compliance for ASML US

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Bizarre being a US resident now a liability in tech
 

ansy1968

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You said Horizon Robotics is providing AI chips for self-driving. The way it is going, it is only a matter of time the company ends up on an American entity list.
what sanctions? VW doesn't seem to be worried.

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Just as @Oldschool predicted 3 months ago and by means of producing the chip, China is self sufficient. ;)

Oldschool

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Jul 12, 2022
The main battle area for China is EV, not IoT.
THis is what made US so nervous about. China has made alot of higher node power electronics and logic, sensors for Electric car.
Each EV can have up to few hundred ICs. Alot of power IC, MEMS, CMOS sensors, MCUs.


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THe most expensive chip in this car is the general purpose DSP(digital signal processor) , 200 Yuan.
All the chips in this car doesn't even need 28nm immersion DUV , 55nm/45nm dry DUV is enough.


THis is CHina's main battle ground.
 

Petrolicious88

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Bizarre being a US resident now a liability in tech
Tech decoupling
For ASML, US employees barred from aiding China include US citizens, green card holders, foreign nationals living in US.

A message from ASML management to its employees.

View attachment 99315

In case anyone wondering about the veracity of the message

David Kim is currently head of Legal & compliance for ASML US

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He’s a lawyer. Basically what you call an In - House Counsel.
 

ansy1968

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Deja Vu? @tokenanalyst bro need your opinion, as @Oldschool had mentioned last month, are his concern being address?

Oldschool

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Sep 17, 2022
US banning 14nm and below equipment to China. And the two US companies affected are Applied Material and Lam Research. ASML is defying US and continuing to supplying DUV.
Therefore for 14nm domestic capacity expansion, lithography is not limiting factor and instead whether domestic suppliers can supply 14nm capable equipments such as ion implantation, CMP, CVD, etc and photoresist chemicals are issues we are watching out for.
 

tinrobert

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You are conflating different things here. VW deal with Horizon Robotics is about EV supply chain. That one China definitely dominates. Notice, it is China's willingness to work with everyone that has allowed it to dominate the space.

Also Horizon Robotics is not a startup. It is the dominant auto CPU supplier in the Chinese market.

I'm surprised it's only $400 million. I don't know why any company in China would continue to work with them if they cannot provide even the most basic servicing requests. I don't see how they can collect any more servicing charges on equipment they've already sold to China.

It's quite possible that they are only estimating this amount because they are anticipating that things will quiet down after the midterms and that they will get exemptions to at least service stuff they already sold.

Other than that, if American companies cannot even service Chinese fabs that are building mature nodes, why would they buy from American companies? It seems like a fantasy for AMAT to only project like a 5 to 10% loss. They are heading for 25% loss from losing the entire Chinese market.

The most ideal case for China is for things to loosen up a little bit after midterms (like it already has with Nvidia). Then, Chinese fabs will be so spooked by what happened that they will just have American companies fulfill existing orders and not any new ones.


I think it's up to China to find ways to keep as many of the senior Americans to work in Chinese semi industry as possible by offering them quick path to citizenship and allow them easy path to get dual citizenship or PR elsewhere (like Singapore or Australia or Canada). US can pressure Japan to not sell their equipment to China, but they clearly did not succeed in this case. This law came through in a hurry before the midterms.

In a time where the entire industry is reeling, Japanese businesses will be pressuring their government to maintain all open sales. Same with Dutch government. ASML probably has significant influence over them. I mean these companies can just tell their government that letting Chinese competitors grow is a terrible thing for them.

Having said that, I think Chinese fabs will identify the areas that they are most at risk (where domestic suppliers are least capable of replacing foreign suppliers) and stock up in those areas. And obvious move would be to buy as many ASML scanners as possible.

As for what China can do to retaliate. It's not clear to me what the right move is. If they really want to go crazy, they can put in laws to prevent any Chinese nationals from working for American semiconductor industry. That actually would really hurt. I don't think they will do that. US government already has done a great job of putting their own companies out of business by spooking all their potential Chinese customers. The smartest thing China can do is to make working in China and building fabs in China more appealing for foreign nationals and firms.

What China wants is not more foreign tools but rather more talented foreign talents and knowledge base.
You can read my article of tonight on how much AMAT and others sells to China:
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PopularScience

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Thanks for posting the Hygon financial update. Didn't realize they generate this much more revenue than Phytium. I thought Phytium was supposed to be the largest player. But a couple of months ago, you mentioned that SMIC is building chips for Phytium, Zhaoxin and Hygon on N+1 process. Is that still happening?

Phytium, Zhaoxin and Hygon are building on SMIC's 14nm process. Phytium is the largest. Hygon and Zhaoxin just switched to SMIC recently.

Next generation will be N+1.
 

gelgoog

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Unless there is something in the new laws that we have not heard about it seems to me like the US semi tools sector is overreacting.
Even though SMIC, YMTC, and CXMT were put in the list, I know at least SMIC and YMTC's current expansion plans do not require any equipment which infringes on the limits of these stupid laws the US put into place. SMIC is expanding 28nm capacity, and YMTC is currently manufacturing at 128 layers or less. I am less sure about CXMT.

What may be the case is that the equipment which these US semi tools vendors sell is not restricted to the parameters set by the US government and so, they basically need to review and possibly nerf all the equipment they were planning to sell to these Chinese companies in order to comply with the stupid new law.
 

tokenanalyst

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View attachment 99321
Hi guys, this was from an old Nikkei article about China's equipment maker competitors to the global equipment maker competitors. Is there any company missing from this list? Maybe some more knowledgeable posters like @olalavn or @tokenanalyst can answer.
Ufff a lot, you will have to read probably a hundred post in this thread to get half of the picture.
To start kingstone is now Wanye enterprise which the founder of SMIC is one executive. CTEC does ion implanters too, its not in the list.

CTEC founded semicore is not there.

This a list of metrology companies
The metrology field has been growing fast in China in the last few years.

CD-SEM
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Optical CD.
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And that is not counting the ones in who do equipment metrology in packaging
Semitronix for testing
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Alphasemi for NAND deposition
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Nanoimprint lithography
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Like I said you will have to read hundred of posts here to get half of the picture
 
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