You are conflating different things here. VW deal with Horizon Robotics is about EV supply chain. That one China definitely dominates. Notice, it is China's willingness to work with everyone that has allowed it to dominate the space.
Also Horizon Robotics is not a startup. It is the dominant auto CPU supplier in the Chinese market.
I'm surprised it's only $400 million. I don't know why any company in China would continue to work with them if they cannot provide even the most basic servicing requests. I don't see how they can collect any more servicing charges on equipment they've already sold to China.
It's quite possible that they are only estimating this amount because they are anticipating that things will quiet down after the midterms and that they will get exemptions to at least service stuff they already sold.
Other than that, if American companies cannot even service Chinese fabs that are building mature nodes, why would they buy from American companies? It seems like a fantasy for AMAT to only project like a 5 to 10% loss. They are heading for 25% loss from losing the entire Chinese market.
The most ideal case for China is for things to loosen up a little bit after midterms (like it already has with Nvidia). Then, Chinese fabs will be so spooked by what happened that they will just have American companies fulfill existing orders and not any new ones.
I think it's up to China to find ways to keep as many of the senior Americans to work in Chinese semi industry as possible by offering them quick path to citizenship and allow them easy path to get dual citizenship or PR elsewhere (like Singapore or Australia or Canada). US can pressure Japan to not sell their equipment to China, but they clearly did not succeed in this case. This law came through in a hurry before the midterms.
In a time where the entire industry is reeling, Japanese businesses will be pressuring their government to maintain all open sales. Same with Dutch government. ASML probably has significant influence over them. I mean these companies can just tell their government that letting Chinese competitors grow is a terrible thing for them.
Having said that, I think Chinese fabs will identify the areas that they are most at risk (where domestic suppliers are least capable of replacing foreign suppliers) and stock up in those areas. And obvious move would be to buy as many ASML scanners as possible.
As for what China can do to retaliate. It's not clear to me what the right move is. If they really want to go crazy, they can put in laws to prevent any Chinese nationals from working for American semiconductor industry. That actually would really hurt. I don't think they will do that. US government already has done a great job of putting their own companies out of business by spooking all their potential Chinese customers. The smartest thing China can do is to make working in China and building fabs in China more appealing for foreign nationals and firms.
What China wants is not more foreign tools but rather more talented foreign talents and knowledge base.