Chinese semiconductor industry

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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
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Russia is way below on the semicon supply chain readiness, so likely they can't.
Also, IIRC Iranian, Syrian, North Korean and maybe many more aren't allowed to utilize supercomputers even outside US?
I once read that for KAUST supercomputer (made by IBM).
Chinese semiconductor equipment companies succeeding is the most important event for any country seeking independence, more important than Chinese foundries succeeding.

Example, Russia does have it's own supercomputers already. Their domestic semiconductor tech is about where China's was in 2005 or so which is when SMIC got their 90 nm foundry running.

They don't need too many chips since they don't have a large electronics industry to consume advanced nodes. What they need is enough lower tech tools to produce their own power, analog, microcontroller chips etc. to support their industrial applications like military, automotive, machinery, oil/gas, etc.

They also will need foundry services for their advanced chips, and buy outright for consumer chips.

In turn, Russia has experience in mechanical tech to trade.

This is much better for China than if Russia has nothing. Just selling the chips is not enough, Chinese equipment needs as many external customers as possible too.
 

olalavn

Senior Member
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what do you mean locally. LOOL

Chinese supercomputers are blacklisted from the beginning by the US. all Chinese supercomputers are entirely domestically produced. due to restrictions they have used old chips. 16nm/14nm.
he means components related to quantum technologies
I feel weird... U.S. supercomputer is number 1 in the world... why did they ban China... lol
 

tokenanalyst

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Sunway still use TSMC no?
I mean pure local including SMEE DUV, AMEC, Naura. No Tencor, App Materials, etc
Is pretty much possible, even in the hypothetical scenario that SMEE immersion scanners can only process 50WPH with an decent yield that will probably be WAY MORE than enough for the chip needed for this supercomputer and that not counting that AMEC and Naura tools are used by the big fabs so their yield is even higher.
When the U.S. say is for stopping the Chinese military from making their chips I say BULLSHIT, the Chinese military can already make their own chips, this is pure economic warfare.
 

tokenanalyst

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no countries can, not even the US ... even worse position than Japan for 28nm .. the US don't make many equipment, in lithography, only a core technologies are from the US, but lithography is much more than that.

China soon will be able to make 100% local 28nm chip manufacturing capability
U.S. lack a lithography industry. Japan already have a pretty "competent" litho industry covering everything, coating/developer, stripper, photoresists, mask making and inspection. In fact I think is TEL that has monopolized the coating/developer equipment market from Kingsemi in China.
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Also I not referring to production at the same scale than TSMC.
 

Jianguo

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I am now looking forward to future earnings report to see how this plays out (interesting opportunity for those wanting to short or go long on semi stocks). How will the companies adjust and how much will it cost, only those companies know and time will tell. ASML may be a foreshadowing of what is to come, since they are making record $$$ while shrugging off every punch thrown their way. It is truly a pity that there is no easily accessible investing for chinese semi stocks to to those of us overseas, I think I would be killing it right now lol.
Fyi, you can invest in some Chinese mainland stocks indirectly through Hong Kong via the Shanghai and Shenzhen "Stock Connect", if your brokerage supports it. Otherwise, you'd have to open an account on the mainland. To be honest, all the best semicon stock opportunities are NOT included in the stock connect program. Despite this, it's still very risky and timing is way more important with China's equities than other exchanges. China's stock traders are almost all momentum traders. There's relatively little fundamental analysis going on ala. Warren Buffett. So, even though China's semicon companies will be growing in triple digits for years to come, this is not reflected in their stock prices. The prices are almost totally driven by the news cycle and current short term sentiment. However, if you're a long-term investor, China's semicon stocks are a no lose situation. They are the only tech companies basically guaranteed to be growing gangbusters for many years to come.

Personally, I'm waiting for Nov-Feb when I expect the Sh*t to hit the fan bigtime in world markets. China's markets will drop in unison with everybody else. It's only from that point onwards where I think pricing will be buyable. Otherwise, look to the listed companies on the Hong Kong and American exchanges like SMIC, Huahong, Naura, AMEC, ACMR, etc. These and few of the other big names can be bought outside of China. SMIC is the only Chinese semicon stock I'm not waiting to buy during the coming macro downturn. I've been accumulating it everytime it goes below 15.50. I think SMIC will hit 125.00 EASILY before 2026. If you want to be safe, you should consider selling in the money covered calls for the American tech stocks and maybe even buy short term puts on affected American semicon stocks. It's almost a given American politicians will be fighting over who is more anti-China before the mid-terms. So, if you plan forward the expected shitsto*m, you're well placed to double, triple, quintuple your investment if you're in options. Rarely do we have such an environment where it is nearly 100% certain that markets are headed for a fu*king cliff. This is the time to make money by taking advantage of it.
 

Topazchen

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US hits China with sweeping tech export controls​

Restrictions will limit Chinese companies’ access to advanced computer chips and slow their progress in artificial intelligence.

The US has introduced sweeping export controls that will severely complicate efforts by Chinese companies to develop cutting-edge technologies with military applications, in one of the toughest actions President Joe Biden has taken against China. The commerce department on Friday announced restrictions that will make it extremely hard for Chinese companies to obtain or manufacture advanced computer chips and will slow their progress in artificial intelligence.

The measures are also designed to make it much tougher for China to develop supercomputers with military applications that range from modelling nuclear weapons to developing hypersonic weapons.

The controls mark a new attempt to decouple China from the US in cutting-edge technologies. They come days before the Chinese Communist party holds its 20th national congress at which President Xi Jinping is expected to seal a third term as leader.

Paul Triolo, a China and tech expert at Albright Stonebridge, a consultancy, said the action was a “major watershed” in US-China relations and in the increasingly intense technology competition between the two countries. “The US has essentially declared war on China’s ability to advance the country’s use of high-performance computing for economic and security gains,” said Triolo.

The controls will hit Chinese companies in multiple ways. They will bar US companies from exporting critical chip manufacturing tools to China, which will affect groups such as Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp, Yangtze Memory Technologies Co and ChangXin Memory. The restrictions will also prohibit “US persons” — American citizens and companies — from providing direct or indirect support to Chinese companies involved in advanced chip manufacturing.

Kevin Wolf, an expert on export controls at Akin Gump, said the US persons provision was the “most significant and expansive” element of the broad package of measures announced. He said it was a “novel” approach because it threatened a form of sanctions even if the underlying technology was not subject to existing export controls.

The US also put YMTC — along with 30 other Chinese entities — on a list of “unverified” companies, paving the way for possible inclusion on a separate blacklist called the “entity list” that would effectively bar US companies from supplying them with technology.

The administration’s strategy is to deny China the capability to indigenise its semiconductor industry. If the US is successful, this causes a huge problem for Beijing’s strategy to be a world-class player,” said Martijn Rasser, a security and technology expert at the Center for a New American Security, a think-tank.

Underscoring the scope of the controls, the US is using a far-reaching mechanism called the “foreign direct product rule” to make it harder for China to develop and maintain supercomputers and AI technology.

The rule — which was first used by the administration of Donald Trump against Chinese technology group Huawei — in effect bars any US or non-US company from supplying targeted Chinese entities with hardware or software whose supply chain contains American technology.


But in an effort to reduce supply chain disruptions, the administration will carve out an exception for chipmaking facilities in China owned by companies from the US or allied countries that are exporting chips.

“The PRC [People’s Republic of China] has poured resources into developing supercomputing capabilities and seeks to become a world leader in artificial intelligence by 2030. It is using these capabilities to monitor, track and surveil their own citizens, and fuel its military modernisation,” said Thea Kendler, a senior commerce department official. “Our actions will protect US national security.”

Analysts said China’s memory chipmakers, including YMTC and ChangXin Memory, would feel the most immediate blow.

“They are basically doomed,” said Mark Li, a semiconductor analyst at Bernstein in Hong Kong. “It will be very difficult for them to get the equipment they need.


But the ban on the export of semiconductor tools could significantly hurt Chinese chipmakers more broadly because US equipment makers have a stranglehold in a few crucial niches.

Triolo said there would be “many losers”, including US chip design leaders such as Nvidia and AMD, and tool makers including Applied Materials and Lam Research. He said the rules would also hit non-US players, including ASML, the Dutch company that produces the most advanced semiconductor tools, and TSMC, the Taiwanese contract foundry company.

One chip industry executive said the US was attacking China “from all angles”.

“The stunning thing about this move is that they have assembled a whole array of tools,” the executive said. “They are not just targeting military applications, they are trying to block the development of China’s technology power by any means.”


The Semiconductor Industry Association, the main US lobby group for the chip industry, said it was “assessing” the effect of the controls and working with its members to ensure compliance.

“We understand the goal of ensuring national security and urge the US government to implement the rules in a targeted way — and in collaboration with international partners — to help level the playing field and mitigate unintended harm to US innovation,” the group said.

Chuck Schumer, the Senate Democratic majority leader, welcomed the controls but said the US need to go further. He said the Senate was looking at ways to include measures in an upcoming defence spending bill to counter Chinese efforts to undermine the US chip industry.


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This doesn't make sense and Biden's strategy is actually achieving the opposite

The administration’s strategy is to deny China the capability to indigenise its semiconductor industry. If the US is successful, this causes a huge problem for Beijing’s strategy to be a world-class player,” said Martijn Rasser, a security and technology expert at the Center for a New American Security, a think-tank.
 
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