Even taking the market for i-line, KrF, dry ArF tools from ASML doesn't do much to reduce ASML revenue, as the bulk of their sales comes from EUV and ArFi. It does help SMEE though.My guess is the first small batch of immersion tools are going to sanctioned companies like Huawei and for companies like SMIC and YTMC to test and codevelop. What ASML should be worry is about the dry tools especially the I-line and KrF, because I don't think that the big names in the Chinese semiconductor industry are all investing all this money in lithography just to compete with ASML in a "fairly manner".
The other problem is that with i-line and KrF we don't see improvement from SMEE. Something like a dual stage KrF tool or a 365 nm LED i-line source tool would show improvement.