Chinese semiconductor industry

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european_guy

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tphuang said:
If I'm SMIC, I would try to get into the smartphone market as soon as I can, because that's where the money is. In fact, I don't know why they would build so many new "28 nm fabs" with high production capacity if they weren't trying to get into the more competitive smartphone market. If I'm SMIC, I would let other chip makers take over the lower end market.
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Instead if I'm China I would leave the smartphones chips as the last ones ;)

1. In order of strategic importance we have AI chips, server chips, desktop chips and only at the end smartphone chips

2 In order of needed manufacturing capacity instead the list is exactly reversed. It means that is enough a small capacity to fully localize the highly strategical AI, instead the same capacity is just a drop in the ocean for smartphones.

3. AI is a key enabler for China's high-tech ecosystem like for instance future EV cars, the big market of the future, that is going to complete change the current status quo and power balance and where China is even ahead of western competition! I think one of the main reasons for US to ban AI chips is to hinder China on autonomous car, an absolute must-have key technology of our near future!

3. Smartphone chips have no strategic value at all, they are just a revenue cow, but are not enablers of anything, there isn't a secondary high-tech new market that is affected by smartphone chips availability.

4. The fact that US companies make a lot of money on smartphone chips (Qualcomm) or on desktop / server chips (Intel, AMD) in China market is not bad for China from a strategic point of view, indeed is a kind of life insurance for China in this period. It ensures there is a very strong and deep pocketed pro-China lobbying in US and this has paid off already, see the delays of the half-effective and partial US measures. I mean, currently Intel is still selling tons of chips to Huawei, I mean to Huawei!!!

Keeping buy US chips, China is indirectly paying billions of $ to water down US policies. It works nicely!
 
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tokenanalyst

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Influence of epitaxial layer structure and cell structure on electrical performance of 6.5 kV SiC MOSFET​


Silicon carbide (SiC) material features a wide bandgap and high critical breakdown field intensity. It also plays an important role in the high efficiency and miniaturization of power electronic equipment. It is an ideal choice for new power electronic devices, especially in smart grids and high-speed trains. In the medium and high voltage fields, SiC devices with a blocking voltage of more than 6.5 kV will have a wide range of applications. In this paper, we study the influence of epitaxial material properties on the static characteristics of 6.5 kV SiC MOSFET. 6.5 kV SiC MOSFETs with different channel lengths and JFET region widths are manufactured on three wafers and analyzed. The FN tunneling of gate oxide, HTGB and HTRB tests are performed and provide data support for the industrialization process for medium/high voltage SiC MOSFETs.

  • 1. State Key Laboratory of Advanced Power Transmission Technology, Global Energy Interconnection Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China
  • 2. Key Laboratory of Semiconductor Material Sciences, Institute of Semiconductors, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100083, China
1662825949450.png

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tphuang

tphuang

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european_guy said:
Instead if I'm China I would leave the smartphones chips as the last ones ;)

1. In order of strategic importance we have AI chips, server chips, desktop chips and only at the end smartphone chips

2 In order of needed manufacturing capacity instead the list is exactly reversed. It means that is enough a small capacity to fully localize the highly strategical AI, instead the same capacity is just a drop in the ocean for smartphones.

3. AI is a key enabler for China's high-tech ecosystem like for instance future EV cars, the big market of the future, that is going to complete change the current status quo and power balance and where China is even ahead of western competition! I think one of the main reasons for US to ban AI chips is to hinder China on autonomous car, an absolute must-have key technology of our near future!

3. Smartphone chips have no strategic value at all, they are just a revenue cow, but are not enablers of anything, there isn't a secondary high-tech new market that is affected by smartphone chips availability.

4. The fact that US companies make a lot of money on smartphone chips (Qualcomm) or on desktop / server chips (Intel, AMD) in China market is not bad for China from a strategic point of view, indeed is a kind of life insurance for China in this period. It ensures there is a very strong and deep pocketed pro-China lobbying in US and this has paid off already, see the delays of the half-effective and partial US measures. I mean, currently Intel is still selling tons of chips to Huawei, I mean to Huawei!!!

Keeping buy US chips, China is indirectly paying billions of $ to water down US policies. It works nicely!
Click to expand...
I totally agree withe strategic importance of what you are saying. I was just hypothesizing based on the assumption that they could have 3 fabs with 100k 28nm wafer production a month. That's a lot of capacity. If we think that multiple exposures would reduce 100k to 25k of N+1 (let's assume that's their 7nm production) and 20k of N+2 (maybe their 5nm equivalence if we believe their roadmap), that's a lot of capacity. That would be 75k of N+1 or 60k of N+2 wpm production capacity.

To put things into perspective, TSMC only has 150k wpm of 5 nm production capacity and they capture something like 70% 5 nm demand. With the market downturn, it's unlikely TSMC will be able to fully utilize that over the next year or two.
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So if they do have an existing fab that does N+1 to 3 new fabs that could to N+1 or N+2 that are coming online in the next couple of years, there is enough capacity there to move beyond just AI/Server/desktop/Auto chip market.

After the recent announcement of new 7.5 billion 12 inch fab in Tianjin, they now have 4 12-inch fabs under construction. To put things into perspective, they only actively have 3 8-inch fabs and 3 12-inch fabs. So they are massively ramping up their production capacity.

I've looked up their announcements. here is for Beijing
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100k wpm for 28 nm and above -> 7.6 billion

here is for Shenzhen
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40k wpm for 28 nm and above -> 2.35 billion -> ready in 2022

here is for Shanghai
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100k wpm for 28 nm and above -> 8.87 billion

here is for Tianjin recently
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100k wpm for 28 nm to 180 nm -> 7.5 billion.

100k wpm is a lot of capacity. To put things into perspective, the first 12 inch fab they built at Shenzhen only had 40k wpm capacity
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They always say the fab is for 28 nm and above. For some reason, I don't think they need to tripling or quadrupling their 28 nm and above capacity!
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In the first phase of Hua Hong Semiconductor Wuxi, a new 12-inch special process integrated circuit chip production line with a process grade of 90-65/55nm and a monthly production capacity of 65,000 pieces has been added.
Click to expand...

So either the existing ones are getting converted to 14 nm/N+1/N+2 with more and newer machines (that's very possible) or the new ones are built with more advanced nodes in mind. Only the one in Shenzhen does not look like a candidate for more advanced nodes, since it is so small.

to put things into perspective, TSMC only has 6 12 inch fabs in production (5 in Taiwan and 1 in Nanjing)
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SMIC will have 7 12 inch fabs in production by probably 2024.
 
olalavn

olalavn

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tphuang said:
I totally agree withe strategic importance of what you are saying. I was just hypothesizing based on the assumption that they could have 3 fabs with 100k 28nm wafer production a month. That's a lot of capacity. If we think that multiple exposures would reduce 100k to 25k of N+1 (let's assume that's their 7nm production) and 20k of N+2 (maybe their 5nm equivalence if we believe their roadmap), that's a lot of capacity. That would be 75k of N+1 or 60k of N+2 wpm production capacity.

To put things into perspective, TSMC only has 150k wpm of 5 nm production capacity and they capture something like 70% 5 nm demand. With the market downturn, it's unlikely TSMC will be able to fully utilize that over the next year or two.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

So if they do have an existing fab that does N+1 to 3 new fabs that could to N+1 or N+2 that are coming online in the next couple of years, there is enough capacity there to move beyond just AI/Server/desktop/Auto chip market.

After the recent announcement of new 7.5 billion 12 inch fab in Tianjin, they now have 4 12-inch fabs under construction. To put things into perspective, they only actively have 3 8-inch fabs and 3 12-inch fabs. So they are massively ramping up their production capacity.

I've looked up their announcements. here is for Beijing
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
100k wpm for 28 nm and above -> 7.6 billion

here is for Shenzhen
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
40k wpm for 28 nm and above -> 2.35 billion -> ready in 2022

here is for Shanghai
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
100k wpm for 28 nm and above -> 8.87 billion

here is for Tianjin recently
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
100k wpm for 28 nm to 180 nm -> 7.5 billion.

100k wpm is a lot of capacity. To put things into perspective, the first 12 inch fab they built at Shenzhen only had 40k wpm capacity
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

They always say the fab is for 28 nm and above. For some reason, I don't think they need to tripling or quadrupling their 28 nm and above capacity!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!



So either the existing ones are getting converted to 14 nm/N+1/N+2 with more and newer machines (that's very possible) or the new ones are built with more advanced nodes in mind. Only the one in Shenzhen does not look like a candidate for more advanced nodes, since it is so small.

to put things into perspective, TSMC only has 6 12 inch fabs in production (5 in Taiwan and 1 in Nanjing)
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

SMIC will have 7 12 inch fabs in production by probably 2024.
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I added about Dongguan, Guangdong... it will be the semiconductor hub of Guangdong + shenzhen
 
tphuang

tphuang

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gelgoog said:
TSMC has megafabs with 100,000 wpm capacity. That is the difference. Their fabs are huge.
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but only 150k wpm of 5 nm right now and maybe 200k wpm of 7 nm. And the much talked about and over budget Arizona fab is only going to output 20k wpm.

I'm not saying SMIC will be producing as much as TSMC in a couple of years, but the new SMIC fabs are 100k wpm. (340k wpm between them) That's a huge expansion. Maybe they will be at 1/4 or 1/5 of that for the more advanced nodes. Maybe they can get more than that with EUVs. Even if they get 75k wpm of 5/7 nm in 2 years, that's still a lot of capacity in the market at a time we are entering a global recession and Nvidia/AMD/Qualcomm about to lose large portion of their Chinese customer base.

Supposedly, Taiwan has 19 fabs under construction (according to Bloomberg). I'm not sure how they are going to find enough people, water and electricity to work on those fabs. There is no shortage of that on the mainland.
 
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gelgoog

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The problem is SMIC will be expanding into what is an established market. They will have to compete on price. It is a race to the bottom basically. And SMIC is competing against factories which were built at a time when there wasn't the current shortage in tools and inflated prices on everything.

SMIC is doing well to make this massive expansion. But they are basically cut out from further business development by the US ban on EUV.
 
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henrik

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european_guy said:
It's telling that ASML China is way bigger than SMEE in China!

It's clear they strongly want to remain in China for the future, and I think they know very well that if they give up on DUV banning their future in China is doomed.

On the other hand it keeps getting clearer every day that the ban of ASML litho machine is the only real weapon by US to strongly impact Chinese growth for some years to come. At the moment also banning of TSMC on advanced nodes is a very powerful one, but as soon as the new SMIC sub 14nm fab will come online, also this one will become moot.

I can only imagine the kind of pressure Holland government and ASML have to deal with! If ASML would have been American, it would have been already game over!
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what pressure on the Holland government? What can the yankees do to them anyway?
 
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