Chinese semiconductor industry

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antiterror13

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Well, keep in mind that they just started production and had to compete against Nvidia/AMD chips before. On top of that, their main client was like just Baidu. Last year, Kunlun was spun off as its own entity and valued at 2 billion USD. The PE ratio is a little ridiculous for a company with just 20 million, but this is still a company in its infancy.
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By August, it sounds like Kunlun 2 had over 100 million RMB in orders which work out to be 20 million USD (since over 100 million doesn't mean 100 million). I checked online and prices for V100 GPU was about 3 to 5k. If I had to guess, a purpose build XPU-R like Kunlun 2 probably will only cost 2k. As such 20 million USD in order would mean 10k Kunlun-2 chips. That's not bad for a year into production. Remember, they only sold 20k Kunlun-1 chips in 3 years. There is not that much demand for ai accelerator chips by just Baidu.

And sounds like Kunlun 3 is well into development. The good news is that this chip is already in mass production and the demand is likely to go through the roof after this week's news. Samsung is also likely to have plenty of spare capacity for Baidu chips.

so did you mean that Kunlun 3 is in mass production now?
 

european_guy

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Zhongguo Optoelectronics has delivered nano-scale patterned wafer defect inspection equipment to customers​


A few days ago, NanoPro-150, a "nano-scale patterned wafer defect inspection equipment" developed and manufactured by China Conductive Optoelectronics Equipment Co., Ltd. ("China Conductive Optoelectronics"), was delivered to the customer's factory. The customer is joined and guided by a domestic semiconductor chip manufacturing giant, and is a well-known enterprise in the domestic IGBT manufacturing field.

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It is reported that the NanoPro-1XX product series of Zhongguo Optoelectronics has a maximum sensitivity of 100nm, which is suitable for the manufacturing process requirements of semiconductor chips of 0.13μm-0.18μm and above. In addition to being similar to similar products from international top companies in terms of sensitivity, detection speed (Throughput) and other main performance parameters, this product series also has a number of unique innovations and features: First, it integrates "Bright Field" and "Dark Field". /Dark Field” in one, which not only ensures the inspection requirements for key processes such as lithography and etching, but also provides cost-effective inspection solutions for processes such as coating, CMP, and bare chips, which greatly expands the application scenarios of the equipment. The cost of use (COO) of the equipment is reduced; second, the "multi-channel imaging (MCI) technology" is adopted to improve the detection sensitivity of the equipment to different "detected materials/objects", and solve the "film color change/Color Variation" "interference to detection; third, the use of "dynamic image resolution extension (HDR)" technology to better solve the "light and dark contrast" problem of "metal-non-metal" mixed surfaces; fourth, according to customer needs, the device Compatible with two different wafer sizes, such as 8-inch and 12-inch, 6-inch and 8-inch, 5-inch and 6-inch, etc., which expands the scope of equipment use; fifth, integrates a large number of advanced image recognition and artificial intelligence software technology, and can match with the general software system and information exchange system of the international semiconductor manufacturing industry.

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Compared with "unpatterned wafer defect inspection equipment", the technical difficulty of "patterned wafer defect inspection equipment" has been greatly improved, the scope of application is wider, and the economic value and market space of the product are also the same as "patterned wafer defect inspection equipment". several times. It is understood that the NanoPro-150 model delivered this time is a breakthrough in the localization of pattern inspection equipment in the domestic semiconductor front-end process.

Zhongguo Optoelectronics is a professional company specializing in the research, development and industrialization of high-end defect detection equipment in the front-end of the semiconductor industry. In the 16 years since its establishment, Zhongguo Optoelectronics has sold nearly 300 sets of various sub-micron (>0.5μm) "patterned" inspection equipment in the flat panel display (FPD) and other industrial fields. The company has undertaken dozens of national "863 plan" scientific research projects, scientific research projects of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, provincial and municipal scientific research projects, and has accumulated rich experience in the research and development and industrialization of high-end semiconductor testing equipment. Alternative suppliers.

The NanoPro-2XX series products of Zhongguo Optoelectronics have a maximum sensitivity of about 70nm and are suitable for 60nm-90nm semiconductor processes; its NanoPro-3XX series products have a maximum sensitivity of about 40nm and are suitable for 45nm-60nm semiconductor processes. NanoPro-2XX series products will accept customer orders next year, and NanoPro-3XX will also complete the research and development later and accept customer evaluation. The NanoPro-1XX series products and MDI sub-micron testing equipment that CND is currently in sales and mass production, plus NanoPro-2XX and NanoPro-3XX will enter the market successively, which can cover more than 90% of the domestic semiconductor front-end testing equipment demand market , bringing dawn to the localization of testing equipment in China's semiconductor industry.

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Thanks for introducing this very interesting firm.

Here is some basic information on Patterned Wafer Inspection and dark/bright field illumination for who (like me) didn't know what they mean.

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european_guy

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I agree with other posters that the US should just go full embargo and get it over with. Companies can decide which side of the fence they want to be on. Slicing and dicing simply just gives companies and end users more time to find workarounds with the same result, as the chaos and uncertainty will force companies to sit with one foot on the other side of the fence ready to swing over.

5 years ago a full embargo on China probably would have been effective, but now?

Please consider China is already able to design and manufacture up to 14-7nm nodes, and even if it is currently done with foreign tools, their fully localized solutions are not so far behind, say a couple of years at worst.

A full embargo on China would take down Wall Street without reaching the intended target of blocking China.

Moreover, an US embargo alone nowadays is no more enough. US needs that also other actors (Taiwan, SK, Japan and ASML) join in. In 2022 this is not so easy anymore, even for the mighty US.

I read with some amusement this old article posted by @antiterror13

US govt banned selling PlayStation 2 to China in 1999 ;) ... so banning A100/H100 shouldn't be a surprise to anybody
you can see how ridiculous some (many) US politicians are
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What impressed me most is how different was the sensibility and the attitude of US in those days and how much is changed. Reading the article you really feel how much almighty and powerful US thought of itself and with how much contempt looked down China and the rest of the world.

Now 20 years later everything is changed, even US attitude. Contempt turned in a toxic mix of rage, hate and panic.

Eventually US will move to total decouple from China....but it will do this to defend itself from China, not to attack China. It will do it out of protectionism, to prevent Chinese firms to sell in US and western markets, like it did in photovoltaic and wind turbines.
 

european_guy

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I checked online and prices for V100 GPU was about 3 to 5k.

I checked A100 GPU and it seems on average has a 30% markup on V100 solutions

"The A100 is being sold packaged in the DGX A100, a system with 8 A100s, a pair of 64-core AMD server chips, 1TB of RAM and 15TB of NVME storage, for a cool $200,000. For context, the DGX-1, a similar system with 8 V100s, cost around $150,000 at launch. That equates to a 33-percent generational price hike"

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So let's assume 5K $ per unit.

NVIDIA officially stated that it expect to lose 400$ millions in third quarter due to A100 ban

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So we are talking of about 80k chips per quarter, i.e. 300K-350K chips per year. This is the total market we are talking about and this is what SMIC should cover with its 7nm nodes.

Considering A100 has 64 chips per wafer

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It means with perfect yield about 5500 wafer per year, with 50% yield about 10K wafer per year

Assuming 50% yield SMIC needs a capacity of 1K wpm (wafer per month) on 7nm to compensate for an eventual ban on TSMC.
 
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pbd456

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i
I checked A100 GPU and it seems on average has a 30% markup on V100 solutions

"The A100 is being sold packaged in the DGX A100, a system with 8 A100s, a pair of 64-core AMD server chips, 1TB of RAM and 15TB of NVME storage, for a cool $200,000. For context, the DGX-1, a similar system with 8 V100s, cost around $150,000 at launch. That equates to a 33-percent generational price hike"

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So let's assume 5K $ per unit.

NVIDIA officially stated that it expect to lose 400$ millions in third quarter due to A100 ban

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So we are talking of about 80k chips per quarter, i.e. 300K-350K chips per year. This is the total market we are talking about and this is what SMIC should cover with its 7nm nodes.

Considering A100 has 64 chips per wafer

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It means with perfect yield about 5500 wafer per year, with 50% yield about 10K wafer per year

Assuming 50% yield SMIC needs a capacity of 1K wpm (wafer per month) on 7nm to compensate for an eventual ban on TSMC.
it seems pretty hard to hit 50% yield with SMIC 7nm process.
TSMC N7 process using DUV got down to 0.09 defects per 1cm^2.
Assuming SMIC also get to the same defects per 1cm^2, this A100 has over 800mm^2 die size. so there would be 0.72 defect per chip
 

european_guy

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i

it seems pretty hard to hit 50% yield with SMIC 7nm process.
TSMC N7 process using DUV got down to 0.09 defects per 1cm^2.
Assuming SMIC also get to the same defects per 1cm^2, this A100 has over 800mm^2 die size. so there would be 0.72 defect per chip

Thanks for this input.

So redoing the calculation, with 15-20% yield, it translate into 2-3K wpm of capacity on 7nm node.

We can extrapolate assuming that 5K wpm capacity now and maybe 10K wpm by end 2023 will be more than enough to cover Chinese AI needs and make any ban on AI moot.
 
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