Chinese semiconductor industry

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OppositeDay

Senior Member
Registered Member
ansy1968 said:
Hi weig2000,

Thanks , a very good read.

But I find this idea self defeating

The United States should enhance its capabilities by funding R&D in advanced semiconductor capabilities, including manufacturing equipment and by providing incentives for the construction of state-of-the-art semiconductor manufacturing facilities in the United States. In addition, the United States and its allies should impose strict export controls on the sale of semiconductor manufacturing equipment for advanced chips to all Chinese companies, private as well as state-owned, while continuing to allow the sale of finished chips to Chinese companies for civilian uses.

The Chinese can also play the game, Did they not think after what Trump had done, the Chinese will also fund and produce their own advanced semiconductor equipment. Huawei is doing IDM now and SMEE will eventually produce an EUVL. Every Chinese Tech company will be wary of buying any US product and subject themselves to the mercy of AMERICAN whims. Lets see if her allies will go along , SK had the backbone to say NO, hope Japan can do the same. It should remind Japan that the US mistrust her as much as she mistrust China, we are all part of what the American term as Yellow Peril.
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Given the importance of AI to future warfare China would be stupid not to develop its own semiconductor industry especially according to the same paper

The real danger to data security comes not from 5G base stations but from chip fabrication itself: University of Michigan researchers demonstrated that it is easy to implant an undetectable “back door” among the billions of transistors contained in a thumbnail-sized chip.
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Intel is considering outsourcing to TSMC while developing its own advanced process manufacturing. There is no reason why China can't do the same.

In any case, it appears that the U.S. and China does share one common interest: the relocation of state-of-the-art semiconductor factory to the U.S. We all know state-of-the-art here means TSMC as they're currently in the lead and Taiwan has no power to resist American pressure whereas Samsung is a bit behind and South Korea has some power to resist.

Relocation of TSMC's manufacturing facilities to the U.S. has a number of advantages for China:
1. Better chances of poaching TSMC's Taiwanese employees.
2. Reducing China's trade surplus with the U.S. Taiwan is anti-China anyway, and what's keeping Taiwan from declaring independence is China's military power, not cross-strait economic ties. Buying from Taiwan is geopolitically a waste. Better to buy American.
3. Lowering Taiwan's tax revenue. so less money to buy American weapons.
4. Less economic/supply chain reasons for U.S. military intervention over Taiwan.
 
Nobonita Barua

Nobonita Barua

Senior Member
Registered Member
weig2000 said:
but rather a new tech industry.
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I am more than willing to see that.

The United States is still living in Cold war era defeating USSR with all of their European IP made toys. I am willing to see what they can do by their own. US's inability to grasp the truth that, it was windfall of second world war, rather than US's own capability , that made them "super power" amuses me.

The entire article is trying to give the vibe that, The US "shouldn't" cede any field China or "doesn't want" to take "leadership", is like the ghost stories grandmas use to tell kids to make them finish dinner.

How about the reality? Printed money doesn't produce scientists. It's not that they "don't want" to, but they "can't".
 
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ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
weig2000 said:
If you ask me, I don't think these American elites really have much of a clue of how to deal with China, an opponent they have never faced before. The typical American approach is just to try different strategies. If one doesn't work, try another one, until it works.

It's not a bad strategy, and has worked before against different adversaries/competitors to varying degrees. It worked before either because the power differentials between the US and the adversary were large and the US could afford to play different strategies with a large margin of error or because the adversary made fatal mistakes along the way, or both.

So, much is dependent on the US's staying power, as well as how China plays the game. Right now, it doesn't look good on the US based on its track records of last two decades. But then again, it's still early in the game.
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Hi weig2000, sndef888,

I think for the American it had become a moving target, if you implement a strategy the opponent will counter act and for China its strategy is very simple self sufficiency.
 
AssassinsMace

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Well the idea that if the US waged a tech war on China fifteen years ago would've been more successful is true but they always forget the flip-side which is US corporations wouldn't have gotten filthy rich exploiting cheap labor in China. China was already a significant rare earths producer. Everything would've costed the West more so all that technology might've had a more difficult journey. Their problem is they think like Trump where everyone needs the US while the US needs no one. They might actually think more sensible if they stopped such arrogance. Just like they're not saying out loud that what they ultimately want is an off-switch on China they only control and can use easily anytime they want while China gets nothing of the sort on them. They think that is totally reasonable to demand because they literally think they're the good guys and can be trusted not to abuse it.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The problem with the US is their market is a lot more limited. One reason why European semiconductors mostly floundered was because of that. Smaller markets vs the US. Semiconductors is all about scale you need tens of millions or hundreds of millions of chips produced or you can't justify the capital expenditure in the fabrication facilities. Intel is right now hitting the same problem that AMD and Digital Equipment Corporation hit before them.

The Chinese market is huge. The middle class and upper class alone is as much or more population than in the US. As the rest of the population gets increased income they will also increase their consumption of high end technology products. This means the focus of the market is going to be China and there is little the US can do to stop that. They tried to sell to India, for example, but India's population is really poor so they can at best purchase low end technology products. So the US is stuck.
 
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ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
OppositeDay said:
Given the importance of AI to future warfare China would be stupid not to develop its own semiconductor industry especially according to the same paper



Intel is considering outsourcing to TSMC while developing its own advanced process manufacturing. There is no reason why China can't do the same.

In any case, it appears that the U.S. and China does share one common interest: the relocation of state-of-the-art semiconductor factory to the U.S. We all know state-of-the-art here means TSMC as they're currently in the lead and Taiwan has no power to resist American pressure whereas Samsung is a bit behind and South Korea has some power to resist.

Relocation of TSMC's manufacturing facilities to the U.S. has a number of advantages for China:
1. Better chances of poaching TSMC's Taiwanese employees.
2. Reducing China's trade surplus with the U.S. Taiwan is anti-China anyway, and what's keeping Taiwan from declaring independence is China's military power, not cross-strait economic ties. Buying from Taiwan is geopolitically a waste. Better to buy American.
3. Lowering Taiwan's tax revenue. so less money to buy American weapons.
4. Less economic/supply chain reasons for U.S. military intervention over Taiwan.
Click to expand...
Hi OppositeDay,


I may disagree, TSMC is the target not of China but the US, see how The American manipulate its allies and steal their IP with a big smile;) on their face, it so easy and the Taiwanese are so gullible. The US will only help you if you had something to give and they had the audacity to take what they deem as crucial to their strategic interest, that's how they maintain their superpower status.

Regarding TSMC, Skywatcher had posted that the Arizona FABS plant is still uncertain and if it pushed thru is not economically viable with monthly production of 20,000 wafer per month. And let's make it clear TSMC is a privately owned company , their priority is to make money, the US FABS if proceed will be producing the 5nm chips in 2024/2025 timeframe, by that time TSMC will be mass producing its 2nm chips. The Taiwanese gov't may be gullible but TSMC is not.
 
K

KYli

Brigadier
Another angle to consider is that if China were lot more poorer due the US waging the economic and technological war early on, then China would have much less to lose. Chinese economy would be lot less intertwined with the West and Chinese technology would be lot less dependent on the US and its allies. Therefore, China could call the US bluff. The US dollars and its dominant in trade and finance would not have been possible if major country like China didn't participate. There isn't much that the US can do except a full fledged war which I doubt.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The TSMC fab in the US is just a token gesture. It is to placate the US government and for clients which for some reason cannot fabricate their chips outside the US. It will have limited capacity. No process design will take place in US. Samsung also has a fabrication facility in Texas but AFAIK they never had that much success with it. For example, why doesn't Apple use that Samsung plant to fabricate their chips? Fact is US corporations in general just care about extracting maximum profit so I doubt the focus will ever swing back to the US. In fact given China's existing critical mass I think it is a lot more likely the focus will shift to China. SMIC already has similar manufacturing process in terms of logic compared with GlobalFoundries for example and is close to matching Intel's.
 
horse

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
weig2000 said:
If you ask me, I don't think these American elites really have much of a clue of how to deal with China, an opponent they have never faced before. The typical American approach is just to try different strategies. If one doesn't work, try another one, until it works.
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Agree absolutely. That video posted, I watched the whole thing and those people were clueless. All working in their universities.

1. They think that people will come to America and be their salves working away at US institutions giving everything to the USA.

2. The biggest driver of tech real world application is people. It is the know how. People have that know how in their heads. People tend to move. That idea never enters their head. Is that what tenured means? America does not have a monopoly on know how and people movement.


3. They always assume the US will assume the leadership role. What about Huawei and 5G. OMG! Someone other than the USA is ahead of them in something! It is like that is not theoretically possible for these people! You got to wonder how out to lunch they are on other topics. An advanced degree in how an ostrich works.

4. Even with all those glaring faults, they do not even realize their worst sin. What idiots. They do not even realize that there is a trade war going on and a tech war going on between China and America. These 2 non-kinetic wars changes everything. Whatever darn report they wrote, after a year of study, is grossly out of date. But that is not even the worst part. The worst part is they do not realize that in war, or even in business, no one controls the battlefield. And here they are talking matter of fact that the USA will get it done.

How are they going to get it done when they do not even have a friggin' clue? <rant></rant>

:oops: :p
 
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T

Tyler

Captain
Registered Member
ansy1968 said:
Hi OppositeDay,


I may disagree, TSMC is the target not of China but the US, see how The American manipulate its allies and steal their IP with a big smile;) on their face, it so easy and the Taiwanese are so gullible. The US will only help you if you had something to give and they had the audacity to take what they deem as crucial to their strategic interest, that's how they maintain their superpower status.

Regarding TSMC, Skywatcher had posted that the Arizona FABS plant is still uncertain and if it pushed thru is not economically viable with monthly production of 20,000 wafer per month. And let's make it clear TSMC is a privately owned company , their priority is to make money, the US FABS if proceed will be producing the 5nm chips in 2024/2025 timeframe, by that time TSMC will be mass producing its 2nm chips. The Taiwanese gov't may be gullible but TSMC is not.
Click to expand...
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