Are these tables real? just wondering where this came from. I assume the 4th column is when they developed the technology with sufficient yield (presumably low rate production with ASML). For the N-1 process (which apparently is equivalent to first generation 7 nm process and probably the chip in question), it only entered mass production with de-americanized line and domestic lithography machine in Q1 of this year. The part about 14nm/12nm entered mass production with domestic DUV makes a lot of sense, since that would verify the other video where they said China completed development on 28 nm DUV in 2021. I still think this table looks a little too aggressive, but who knows.
Which still seems more aggressive than what a lot of us thought. Second gen 7nm process (apparently equivalent to Samsung 5nm process) will enter mass production by end of this year? Looks like they already figured out the process for something equivalent to Samsung 4nm process (so maybe this is the 5nm process we've been speculation). If this table is true, then they might be able to have a de-Americanized (maybe even fully domestic) 5 nm line ready for mass production by 2024. This seems to explain why they bought so many ASML DUVs so far this year. They probably have lines that use ASML DUVs and are working on lines using SMEE DUVs.
The implication for this is huge. I would expect things to be quite inefficient and probably won't generate the same margins as fabs using EUVs, but Chinese firms should be working with SMIC on this. At the very minimum, Huawei/Hisilicon will be doing so with their Kirin chips.
Earlier this year, there was a story about how Chinese companies are working with TSMC for their own chips. They were probably being secretive, because they do not want to get sanctioned.
Based on that article and the one below, Unisoc should be able to get the medium and high end chips it needs from SMIC.
ZTE would be stupid to rely on TSMC for 5/7nm chips. I'd imagine if SMIC can supply them 7 nm chips, then they will sign up for it.
OPPO developed their own NPU using 6nm process. Apparently, placed a large order with TSMC
Said there that Xiaomi is also looking to build their own smartphone chip
Horizon Robotics is already able to build its journey 5 chips with 16 nm process. Journey 6 will be using 7 nm process. Again, another potential user.
BYD is looking to develop its own smart driving chips
Li Auto is looking to develop its own AI chip for smart driving, probably eventually using 7 nm process
Same with AI firms.
Looks like the demand in China for advanced smart phone, AI and driving chips is exploding and they are not going to be placing orders on Nvidia and Qualcomm anymore. According to this, 67.4% of Qualcomm's revenue came from China in 2021
until Huawei sanctions in 2020, Qualcomm was fighting HiSilicon for the Chinese market
Thanks to US sanctions, Qualcomm took over.
For Nvidia, it looks like close to 20% of their 2021 revenue came from China also.
Huawei/Hisilicon success would mean heavy losses for Qualcomm. Horizon Robotics/BYD/Li Auto success means heavy losses for Nvidia. Unisoc/Oppo/Xiaomi developing their own chips would also be bad news for Qualcomm. More importantly, these chip makers (especially Hisilicon) will be using domestic fabs or looking to switch to domestic fabs when capacity becomes available.
All of this is huge in terms of undermining TSMC, MediaTek, Qualcomm and Nvidia. Let's see how things look in a few years. It seems to me they just need to ramp up production of everything.
and yes Sir the major reason why TSMC had invested a lot of money in Taiwan for 3nm and 2nm tech to stay ahead.
