Chinese semiconductor industry

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tokenanalyst

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Over the years, Yingjie Electric has been committed to the research and development, manufacture and improvement of power supply for silicon material preparation, and with innovative thinking and leading technology, has developed a polysilicon reduction power supply system, a polysilicon high-voltage start-up power supply, a single crystal furnace power supply, a polycrystalline ingot furnace power supply, Silicon core furnace power supply, district furnace power supply and other products, and provide system solutions, the products cover the whole process of silicon material preparation, become the leading enterprise of power supply products in the silicon material industry, and have been highly appreciated by customers for a long time.

This company is making RF matchers and RF power supply for the photovoltaic industry, with some effort and invesment by Chinese semi companies they could make the jump to the semiconductor industry. Companies like Naura, Kingstone and CETC (Their civil division)started in the photovoltaic industry.

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mossen

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IMO China should play the strong and confident character here. A strong character does not revert to cheap retaliations or to using the same dirty tricks when faces a bully.

I tell you one thing, I can say this because I know western mentality. One of the things that really drives US mad against China...is that China does not react back with the same dirty tricks and arbitrary nonsense that instead faces from US. This is a strong hint of being strong and confident in itself, and it is what really drives US crazy.
Sounds like a series of copes. When faced with a bully you strike back twice as hard. Trying to optimise a reaction for how it would be received is also futile. China shouldn't be concerned with optics. Besides, the only thing the West respects is strength. Look at how they are slowly climbing down the sanctions on Russia in recent weeks.
 

Pkp88

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At this point it would interesting to put together a table for the IC process to see what components of production China now has a domestic alternative to (i.e. nodes across the top and components down the side)
 

MortyandRick

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I tell you one thing, I can say this because I know western mentality. One of the things that really drives US mad against China...is that China does not react back with the same dirty tricks and arbitrary nonsense that instead faces from US. This is a strong hint of being strong and confident in itself, and it is what really drives US crazy.

I agree with this point as well. Not to say china should not hit back but in a much more calculated way. Reacting in a calm manner and not making rash reactions have been very beneficial to china. while the US throws temper tantrums like a petulant child it makes me feel that the more the US complains and acts, the more china is actually winning. Let's face it, on a face to face level, the US still has the advantage and would like nothing more for china to react and escalate when she is not yet ready. The fact that the US has thus far failed to bait china is actually making them mad IMO. And they have to resort to more and more separate measures while their own country is having a lot of internal issues that are boiling to the surface.
 

Derpy

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Sounds like a series of copes. When faced with a bully you strike back twice as hard. Trying to optimise a reaction for how it would be received is also futile. China shouldn't be concerned with optics. Besides, the only thing the West respects is strength. Look at how they are slowly climbing down the sanctions on Russia in recent weeks.
Nothing hits harder then ignoring the bully while you keep winning. Small barking dogs Like North Korea and Iran that are easily offended, burn flags and scream death to America are not taken serious by the West. Same with the Jai hinds that threw a fit after Galvan burning Chinese made TVs and screaming about boycotts. China ignored them and the trade deficit keep growing with record exports..
 

tphuang

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Let's analyze this from technical and geopolitical point of view.

From technical point of view banning ASML would make sense only if SMEE can guarantee enough production capacity to cover the 100% of the Chinese market, and if current customers of ASML are already independent from a maintenance / spare parts point of view. Otherwise it simply means to shoot itself in the feet.

Far better for China to allow SMEE to develop along with ASML: there is well enough space in the market for both of them. China does not need to ban ASML to make some foundries to buy SMEE when ready....China can and did it in different, more subtle ways already many times in the past.

Form geopolitical point of view such a decision IMO would be even dumber:

1. It would be a huge propaganda gift for US that can scare away companies from investing in China

2. It would be a huge blow to China credibility on the international theater, a blow that would not be possible to recover.

3. It would condemn not only SMEE, but all Chinese equipment manufacturers to being lock in the Chinese market forever because US would very easily succeed in banning them everywhere else (this is a real danger anyhow though).

4. Would make SMEE to become lazy and slow due to missing technical competition with a stronger actor (that is always useful in the long term)

5. Would force decoupling of Chinese semiconductor businesses from the world (huge loss for China in the long term from many, really many points of view).

I'm sympathetic to your point of view (or generally European position in this geopolitical struggle). I would say that if ASML does not resist US pressure and ban the sale of DUVs to China, it's entirely logical and reasonable to lock ASML out of China for the foreseeable future. Would you agree with that? And I think China needs to make that point clear to ASML and the Dutch government.

I think there is already a strike against ASML for not selling EUVs to China. But aside from that, ASML from what I've seen has been a good partner with Chinese firms. There is no reason to lock them out. But there should be encouragement of local firms, because of this constant geopolitical threat and the bowing to US pressure on EUVs. There are definitely ways that the central government can encourage SMIC and other chip producers to favor Chinese companies over ASML.

Geopolitically, I don't see how it would benefit China to cut out ASML even after SMEE or another firm figured out how to produce DUV and EUV. There are still rooms for a lot of cooperation and Chinese orders. But things need to be negotiated in a more even manner where ASML or any EU can't just arbitrarily sanction China because they got pressured by domestic politics or US/UK.

Long term, I think Europe can't really compete with US and China in these major future industries. It's unwise to just automatically dismiss EU as a partner. If China has it's own set of competitive technology that would benefit European society, I don't see why it can't use that to develop tighter relationship with EU.
 

ZeEa5KPul

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Geopolitically, I don't see how it would benefit China to cut out ASML even after SMEE or another firm figured out how to produce DUV and EUV.
I could think of several geopolitical reasons, chief among them depriving a US ally of revenue from the Chinese market. Even looking at the matter through a purely commercial lens, why wouldn't China want to put a foreign competitor out of business?
If China has it's own set of competitive technology that would benefit European society, I don't see why it can't use that to develop tighter relationship with EU.
The EU is a collection of vassalized states. It does not have the sovereignty to decide who it partners with, that decision is imposed on it. That's amply demonstrated by the EU destroying its own industry and citizens' livelihoods because its master told it to sanction Russia.
 

manatee988

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I could think of several geopolitical reasons, chief among them depriving a US ally of revenue from the Chinese market. Even looking at the matter through a purely commercial lens, why wouldn't China want to put a foreign competitor out of business?

The EU is a collection of vassalized states. It does not have the sovereignty to decide who it partners with, that decision is imposed on it. That's amply demonstrated by the EU destroying its own industry and citizens' livelihoods because its master told it to sanction Russia.
Why would ASML go out of business? They have the rest of the world to sell to. The US can scoop up some cheap machines from them. Only after Chinese chip manufacturers have established themselves and domestic equipment suppliers have spun up enough capacity to meet demand would it make sense to stop ASML imports but by that time you wouldn't need to ban them since domestic chip manufacturers would want to use domestic equipment anyway.

Banning ASML before local chip and equipment industry have even got off the ground sounds like a blunder the current US administration would make.
 

olalavn

Senior Member
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Let's analyze this from technical and geopolitical point of view.

From technical point of view banning ASML would make sense only if SMEE can guarantee enough production capacity to cover the 100% of the Chinese market, and if current customers of ASML are already independent from a maintenance / spare parts point of view. Otherwise it simply means to shoot itself in the feet.

Far better for China to allow SMEE to develop along with ASML: there is well enough space in the market for both of them. China does not need to ban ASML to make some foundries to buy SMEE when ready....China can and did it in different, more subtle ways already many times in the past.

Form geopolitical point of view such a decision IMO would be even dumber:

1. It would be a huge propaganda gift for US that can scare away companies from investing in China

2. It would be a huge blow to China credibility on the international theater, a blow that would not be possible to recover.

3. It would condemn not only SMEE, but all Chinese equipment manufacturers to being lock in the Chinese market forever because US would very easily succeed in banning them everywhere else (this is a real danger anyhow though).

4. Would make SMEE to become lazy and slow due to missing technical competition with a stronger actor (that is always useful in the long term)

5. Would force decoupling of Chinese semiconductor businesses from the world (huge loss for China in the long term from many, really many points of view).



IMO China should play the strong and confident character here. A strong character does not revert to cheap retaliations or to using the same dirty tricks when faces a bully.

I tell you one thing, I can say this because I know western mentality. One of the things that really drives US mad against China...is that China does not react back with the same dirty tricks and arbitrary nonsense that instead faces from US. This is a strong hint of being strong and confident in itself, and it is what really drives US crazy.
China is a gentleman, the US uses the "chip law" to ban funded companies from investing in China with processes below 14nm
but they don't know that Chinese companies can replace US companies in 14nm or less process such as:
Huawei, Honor, BBK, Alibaba, Tencent, Cambrian, Jiangwei, Zhaoxin, Loongson, BYD, Horizon.Mooretheard....
 

ansy1968

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Registered Member
Why would ASML go out of business? They have the rest of the world to sell to. The US can scoop up some cheap machines from them. Only after Chinese chip manufacturers have established themselves and domestic equipment suppliers have spun up enough capacity to meet demand would it make sense to stop ASML imports but by that time you wouldn't need to ban them since domestic chip manufacturers would want to use domestic equipment anyway.
@manatee988 bro to answer, how many FAB can afford an EUVL?
 
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