Chinese semiconductor industry

gadgetcool5 said:

And what then? China will go to war if the US theatens secondary sanctions against Trinidad and Tobago for buying from Huawei? No it won't. The US has leverage yo coerce the rest of the world to do pretty much whatever it wants, due to globalization.

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If this were true, then China would be on a Godly level thwarting not just the US but the whole world from stopping its rise. But despite China's achievements, we are still human. Unlike you, America knows that its power has limits; it knows it's stretching them, and it knows that being a reserve currency, the USD must make business easy. If it is a hindrance to business because there are too many sanctions on too many entities, including the largest trading nation in the world, it will gradually fall out of use.

gadgetcool5 said:

US technology is everywhere. Google, Amazon, Intel, Microsoft, etc. No one can survive without it unless they have exceptional political will (like Russia) for some reason that overrides purely economic concerns.

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I don't think you even know what "survive" means. America is eating stored grain by leveraging these entities because China, and even other countries, can make alternatives that users don't have to worry about being sanctioned on. China and Russia are only the two biggest nations with the political will to stay away from them but its quite possible and the better the alternatives, the easier it is. Once China grows to be stronger than the US while offering a comprehensive set of tools, America will have no sanctioning power left; on the contrary, it will be begging for countries to keep using its systems.

I bolded "for some reason" because it's particularly funny that you still have trouble grasping why it is that China and Russia staunchly oppose America. Your old mindset is still there. "Why not give up and make friends with the US? Life is easier that way because fighting is too hard. Give some concessions for better relations so you can keep using American technology, unless, for some reason hard to imagine, you don't want to?" LOL China doesn't want to ever use US technology again; China will make a better alternative for every American tech so that not only is China sanction-proof, but so is any country that wishes to oppose America. In the end, it will be the US holding a gun to the heads of a few "allies" telling them with gritted teeth that the democratic West must stick together using America's standard for freedom and human rights.

KYli said:

There are already shortages of chips due to the ban. If the US tried to further restrict chip equipment sales to China, then the US needs to expect more inflation from home appliance to cars. It is just not doable.

Just like the US allows export of 4G chips to Huawei, the US government still needs to give the US chip equipment companies some leeway especially chip equipment companies from the EU, Japan and even SK could provide many low to medium ends of products that could erode the US companies competitiveness.

Whatever new restrictions that the US intended to impose would strictly aim at advanced chip equipment. Low to medium end of chip equipment would still allow to export. Already installed equipment would still be provided with service. US has already banned export of advanced chip equipment to new fab projects so most new fab projects are 14nm or above.

In the end of the day, the US has already crippled China's attempt to advance its advanced chip sector by restricting EUV and other advanced chip equipment. If China couldn't develop its own chip equipment, then a few years down the road China semiconductor sector would not be competitive.

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Point of correction: The US has not crippled China's attempts to advance its advanced chip sector. It has hampered it...

tokenanalyst said:

If the U.S. can't reach an agreement with their allies on tools and decide to go unilateral then they could lose market share to Japanese, European and other non U.S. companies, I think will be difficult for the U.S. to reach an broad agreement on export controls outside the Wassenaar agreement.

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Wassenar don't mean diddly #&$+. The Europeans and the Japan are all part of the US Alliance system, and even formally neutral countries in Europe such as Switzerland, Austria, and Sweden can very easily be persuaded by the Americans not to sell equipment to China that they possess and make, even entirely with non-American components, if the Americans do not want China to be in possession of such equipment. This goes for any sort of equipment and any sort of goods, regardless of their application. It is not limited to the semiconductor and IC chip industry. As such, China can absolutely not rely on these countries for anything.

gadgetcool5 said:

And what then? China will go to war if the US theatens secondary sanctions against Trinidad and Tobago for buying from Huawei? No it won't. The US has leverage yo coerce the rest of the world to do pretty much whatever it wants, due to globalization. US technology is everywhere. Google, Amazon, Intel, Microsoft, etc. No one can survive without it unless they have exceptional political will (like Russia) for some reason that overrides purely economic concerns.

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If China offers products and applications of its own design and construction that are of similar or even objectively better quality than those of US technology and comparable or cheaper prices, and can also readily supply them, the United States will only stop Trinidad and Tobago or any other country from acquiring them through outright aggression or a coup that installs a fully subservient government to Washington. The same goes for other countries. Can the United States do that for every country in the world?

manqiangrexue said:

Once China grows to be stronger than the US while offering a comprehensive set of tools, America will have no sanctioning power left; on the contrary, it will be begging for countries to keep using its systems.

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It will not have sanctioning power. It will have to instead compete with regards to quality and price to have other countries use its systems. If it can do so, it doesn't need to beg. Other countries of the world have an interest in multipolarity and a greater array of choices. There should not be one overly dominant country.

Weaasel said:

Wassenar don't mean diddly #&$+. The Europeans and the Japan are all part of the US Alliance system, and even formally neutral countries in Europe such as Switzerland, Austria, and Sweden can very easily be persuaded by the Americans not to sell equipment to China that they possess and make, even entirely with non-American components, if the Americans do not want China to be in possession of such equipment. This goes for any sort of equipment and any sort of goods, regardless of their application. It is not limited to the semiconductor and IC chip industry. As such, China can absolutely not rely on these countries for anything.

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I could be and is not impossible, but just because they are allies but that not means that they are fools, their governments still have to protect their respective countries interests. That is why the some hawks in the U.S. want to go unilateral because they have find out the different countries have different priorities when comes to "national security", that is not me saying this, a senator in the US said that. If the US goes multilateral could end up with a weaker water-down version of the exports controls they want. If the Chinese start to put restrictions to on Japanese and European equipment those countries will no be happy to the point I think they will sue China in the WTO. You would think that a loyal to the US Japan would be happy if China favors Naura and AMEC instead of TEL but I don't think so.

gadgetcool5 said:

And what then? China will go to war if the US theatens secondary sanctions against Trinidad and Tobago for buying from Huawei? No it won't. The US has leverage yo coerce the rest of the world to do pretty much whatever it wants, due to globalization. US technology is everywhere. Google, Amazon, Intel, Microsoft, etc. No one can survive without it unless they have exceptional political will (like Russia) for some reason that overrides purely economic concerns.

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US doesn't have to threaten sanctions. Through it's worldwide security/spying apparatus it keeps tabs on all politicians in all countries and knows who is compromised (another reason Huawei cannot be allowed to gain market share). Talking about countries like Trinidad and Tobago, easily half or more of those politicians can be brought down (via leaks to friendly journalists), disgraced or even put on the Clinton list for sanctions individually.

There's a reason that Latin American politicians always toe the line when it comes to the US. All of them are compromised. All of them want to be able to travel to the US and vacation in Miami without being arrested. And once you are on that US Treasury or "Clinton" list, you are as good as dead. No more bank account, no more air travel, nothing for you. This is a "soft" power that China will never have.

nixdorf said:

US doesn't have to threaten sanctions. Through it's worldwide security/spying apparatus it keeps tabs on all politicians in all countries and knows who is compromised (another reason Huawei cannot be allowed to gain market share). Talking about countries like Trinidad and Tobago, easily half or more of those politicians can be brought down (via leaks to friendly journalists), disgraced or even put on the Clinton list for sanctions individually.

There's a reason that Latin American politicians always toe the line when it comes to the US. All of them are compromised. All of them want to be able to travel to the US and vacation in Miami without being arrested. And once you are on that US Treasury or "Clinton" list, you are as good as dead. No more bank account, no more air travel, nothing for you. This is a "soft" power that China will never have.

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This is blackmailing. I hope that China will never have this "soft power".

I think people should take a step back and not overthink America's ability to make a decision and then persuading everyone else to do it. Keep in mind that even Brazil under Bolsonaro eventually allowed Huawei back into 5G market. At the end of the day, US government only has so many bullets. It cannot arbitrarily ask other countries to ban every Chinese tech company. It's one thing to tell other countries to fear a global giant like Huawei, it's quite a different thing for it to tell other countries to every ban every Chinese company in the Semiconductor supply chain.

nixdorf said:

US doesn't have to threaten sanctions. Through it's worldwide security/spying apparatus it keeps tabs on all politicians in all countries and knows who is compromised (another reason Huawei cannot be allowed to gain market share). Talking about countries like Trinidad and Tobago, easily half or more of those politicians can be brought down (via leaks to friendly journalists), disgraced or even put on the Clinton list for sanctions individually.

There's a reason that Latin American politicians always toe the line when it comes to the US. All of them are compromised. All of them want to be able to travel to the US and vacation in Miami without being arrested. And once you are on that US Treasury or "Clinton" list, you are as good as dead. No more bank account, no more air travel, nothing for you. This is a "soft" power that China will never have.

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Does China want that?