@tokenanalyst bro this shortages in supply chain are mainly focus on EUVL, with increasing demand to equip the FABS in Arizona, TSMC expansion in Taiwan and also from SK, the production can't keep up combine with the disruption due to a fire accident in Germany? Then the DUVL sales are not affected as the majority or most of those orders are from China.Chip industry's expansion plans at risk as equipment delays grow
TSMC, Samsung and others chase vital equipment as delivery times reach 18 months
Chipmakers trying to expand production capacity are having to wait a year and a half or longer for key equipment, as unprecedented parts shortages and supply constraints batter the chip tools industry.
Looks like an oppurtunity to local players to build capacity to meet the demand.
Chinese semiconductor industry
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ASML, Nikon, & Canon's investor reports suggest the shortage is also for DUV systems. The shortage is not limited to EUV.
It's only a good thing for China while the rest stumble China can gain in tech, node size and capacity.
@BlackWindMnt bro a delay in operation of the Arizona FAB instead of 2024 maybe 2025 or 2026? IF it does then President elect Trump may have a reason to dial down the escalation, as 2025 for me is the year the Chinese may have complete localization of 7nm line and above and may see the introduction of an EUVL.
Unfortunately, there is no significant delay to tsmc AZ's schedule. tsmc is still scheduled to be in volume production in 2024.
@hvpc bro I read otherwise, aside from construction delay, we had to include ASML supply chain problems.
Feb 15, 2022 — The construction delay in Arizona does not necessarily mean the schedule for mass production will be delayed, as TSMC intentionally gave itself ...
Mar 21, 2022 — Semiconductor makers face a two-year shortage of critical equipment because Dutch chip machinery maker ASML is unable to meet demand fast ...
China’s Chip Investment Surges in Push for Domestic Supplies
China’s Chip Investment Surges in Push for Domestic Supplies
(Yicai Global) April 7 -- China’s tech giants have been piling into the semiconductor industry, hoping to develop domestic supplies amid the ongoing global chip shortage.
Disclosed investment in China’s chip sector stood at more than CNY387.6 billion (USD60.91 billion) last year, up over three times from the previous year’s CNY109.8 billion, according to figures from data provider Qichacha.
In the first quarter of this year, China's chip sector has seen 310 financing deals, 4.6 times more than in the same period of 2021, with the total disclosed topping CNY35 billion.
The country’s tech giants have invested a lot in the industry in recent years in the hope that self-developed chips can cut long-term dependence on overseas supplies, said William Li, an analyst at Counterpoint Research. They also hope to strengthen their development capabilities and increase the chip talent reserve, he said.
Hubble Technology Investment, a unit of telecoms giant Huawei Technologies, has invested in over 70 semiconductor firms in the past three years, covering the chip manufacturing industrial chain, the software industrial chain, automotive electronics, and the fifth-generation industrial chain.
Last year, Shenzhen-based Huawei also invested multiple times in semiconductor materials, including the laser lithography service provider Beijing Rslaser Opto-Electronics Technology.
In July last year, Shanghai-based Axera Semiconductor Technology underwent industrial and commercial registration changes, gaining Meituan-related company Kuxun Technology as a shareholder. In the same month, China Mobile brand OneChip announced that China Mobile-owned Xinsheng Technology, an Internet of Things-related unit, would operate independently to develop further in the IoT chip business and eventually get listed.
In December and January, Lenovo Beijing invested in a number of semiconductor companies, while Lenovo Group set up Dingdao Zhixin Shanghai Semiconductor with registered capital of CNY300 million (USD47.14 million) on Jan. 26.
The demand for chip talent has been increasing as well. Talent solutions company Hudson Global released a report at the beginning of this year saying that in 2022 the chip industry will see the largest average salary increase at more than 50 percent.
Huge investments flowing to the IC sector. First quarter data are very promising
tsmc AZ will have plenty of time to meet their 2024 production timing. Any delay in fab construction could be easily compensated through faster equipment move-in. Oh, I'm sure there is a slight delay in fab construction, but the tool move-in timing communicated to all equipment suppliers all point to on time production. There's enough buffer built into tsmc's original AZ fab project timeline to weather construction delay.
ASML like all equipment suppliers are unable to meet the overall market demand. Like my company, I'm sure ASML has to turn away smaller or less important customers because of the supply/demand imbalance. This shortage situation will not impact big customer like tsmc. I would assume the shortage would impact more on Chinese fab expansion plan since ASML will most likely favor tsmc over the Chinese fab customers. Also, tsmc is spending $44B USD in CapEx in 2022; assuming tsmc invest the same amount in 2023, in my estimate this will be about $6.6B to $8.3B of business for ASML. Even if there is shortage, there's enough systems for tsmc to allocate from one of their many expansions to AZ fab. Only reason tsmc AZ timing will be delayed is if tsmc chose to prioritize their other fab expansions over AZ fab.
Finally, if tsmc do expect a delay, they would have to report this to their investors. For the above reasons, I won't read too much into news articles, at this moment.
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