Chinese semiconductor industry

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Overbom

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european_guy said:
What if SMIC builds an EUV-level fab in Europe, eventually in a joint venture with some European firm?
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No. Europe is an enemy. However, if they are willing to trade something equally valuable then its ok. As the Americans have shown, domestic advanced chip manufacturing is equal to a strategic resource/weapon. What will the EU offer to China?

european_guy said:
The biggest advantage of course is to be able to set-up, get equipment, run, get experience, knowledge and accumulate IP out of a state-of-the art EUV fab within the next few years
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EUV will get developed in China in the next few years, so it doesn't matter.

Plus US has sanctions on SMIC using Western EUV. ASML depends on US' suppliers for its EUV machine.
Unless the EU magically comes up with domestic replacement of US suppliers then this plan won't work.


In any case, SMIC already has its hands full with expanding in China. There isn't enough company capacity to enter the EU now. The Chinese market should be enough for SMIC to expand domestically for decades



european_guy said:
It could also serve Chinese customers that may need sub 7nm technology, in case something goes wrong with TSMC or Samsung and of course is a way for entering European market, that may not be so important in market numbers, but it is important under other considerations.
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Lol. No one trusts the EU that it will somehow help China in-case it needs advanced chips. China fully expected a backstab from the EU and it was proven right.

EU followed the Trumpian sanctions of ASML selling advanced equipment to China. Europe had a lot (if not all) the leverage to push back against the US but they didn't. This is why it is not trusted.
 
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ansy1968

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european_guy said:
Hi everybody, I am from Europe and I've been reading this thread with interest for some time.

I would like to have your opinion on this apparently crazy idea that came to my mind.

What if SMIC builds an EUV-level fab in Europe, eventually in a joint venture with some European firm?

I understand this may sound crazy, but I have thought about it and I think I can defend this idea.

The biggest advantage of course is to be able to set-up, get equipment, run, get experience, knowledge and accumulate IP out of a state-of-the art EUV fab within the next few years, instead of waiting for a localized technology to develop in China. It could also serve Chinese customers that may need sub 7nm technology, in case something goes wrong with TSMC or Samsung and of course is a way for entering European market, that may not be so important in market numbers, but it is important under other considerations.

Thanks for your time.
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@european_guy hi bro welcome to the forum and a straight answer NO WAY in hell will the Europeans allow a Chinese tech company (CCP China) to operate in any part of Europe period. Either it's European owned company or other so called like minded Democratic countries. The sign is very clear NO Russian Or Chinese are allowed.
 
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european_guy

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Yo
ansy1968 said:
@european_guy hi bro welcome to the forum and a straight answer NO WAY in hell will the Europeans allow a Chinese tech company (CCP China) to operate in any part of Europe period. Either it's European owned company or other so called like minded Democratic countries. The sign is very clear NO Russian Or Chinese are allowed.
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You seem to have a very clear-cut opinion on this, but I, as an European, don't see it so black and white.

Europe position is complex. Europe lost the WWII and so it has been split between Russians and US, we are still under US now, it is true, but we are aiming at gaining strategic independence although it is extremely difficult, because we cannot just oppose US directly. For this reason what it really counts in European policy is what is NOT said, more than the official statements. Germany for instance is very pro-China regarding actual and real investments and industrial policies, and this is what it counts more than public words that have to be always "prudent" to not upset US. We are like the wife that tries to manage a very strong and assertive husband.

There are many voices in Europe, there is not a single voice. This is important for you to understand. And please don't assume that European people's opinion of American government is always so good, actually it isn't. We have eyes also by ourselves.

Commenting on the specifics, all European firms would like to sell to China, ASML included. The equipment's limitations are for export so technically building in Europe, or even in Holland, in a joint-venture with European firms walks around the current limitations, and for US would be very difficult to force new ones, especially if this project is endorsed by European Commission. Moreover a €43 billion plan to secure the EU’s semiconductor supply has been just in these days outlined by the European Commission. So this can be a good opportunity because it means there is a strong political will to move on as Europe in a more independent way.

Regarding joint-ventures, this has been a very successful way for foreign firms to enter China market, for reasons that you surely know much better than me, so you well know already the pros of entering with joint-ventures.
 
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ansy1968

Brigadier
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european_guy said:
Yo


You seem to have a very clear-cut opinion on this, but I, as an European, don't see it so black and white.

Europe position is complex. Europe lost the WWII and so it has been split between Russians and US, we are still under US now, it is true, but we are aiming at gaining strategic independence although it is extremely difficult, because we cannot just oppose US directly. For this reason what it really counts in European policy is what is NOT said, more than the official statements. Germany for instance is very pro-China regarding actual and real investments and industrial policies, and this is what it counts more than public words that have to be always "prudent" to not upset US. We are like the wife that tries to manage a very strong and assertive husband.

There are many voices in Europe, there is not a single voice. This is important for you to understand. And please don't assume that European people's opinion of American government is always so good, actually it isn't. We have eyes also by ourselves.

Commenting on the specifics, all European firms would like to sell to China, ASML included. The equipment's limitations are for export so technically building in Europe, or even in Holland, in a joint-venture with European firms walks around the current limitations, and for US would be very difficult to force new ones, especially if this project is endorsed by European Commission. Moreover a €43 billion plan to secure the EU’s semiconductor supply has been just in these days outlined by the European Commission. So this can be a good opportunity because it means there is a strong political will to move on as Europe in a more independent way.

Regarding joint-ventures, this has been a very successful way for foreign firms to enter China market, for reasons that you surely know much better than me, so you well know already the pros of entering with joint-ventures.
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@european_guy No problem bro I appreciated your view who are more knowledgeable on the ground BUT from the outside looking in ever since a Chinese private company bought KUKA, EU had tighten control. So maybe in non strategic car sector like Volvo they will more accommodating.

I feel IF China has achieved self sufficiency, EU will relent and may go further with JV. Cooperation means Two side had something to offer, so to make it happen China need to enhance its Industrial and Scientific base to match the European. It is hard politics and China know how to play the game.
 
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xypher

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SMIC is currently running low on available capacity (load factors are in 99-100% range, which means that there's undersupply) in China itself and the priority for expansion will obviously be there as the majority of Chinese (and even foreign) companies want domestic supply chains for semiconductors. Even companies like Xiaomi and Lenovo which mostly used Western components are starting to invest in domestic supply chains after the arbitrary sanctions and hostile rhetoric by Western countries. It's only natural.

ASML actually does not source that many components from the US hence the US could not enforce the export restriction that way (it is under the required 10%) which means that they ordered the Netherlands to revoke the export licenses and they complied. SMIC is in the US entity list which means that even if SMIC reached out to establish JV with some European company, the US will order to shut that down in a similar manner since the EU seems to be just following the US footsteps when it comes down to semiconductor chains.

Plus the EU would certainly benefit more from that deal since they are having trouble luring TSMC and other advanced manufacturers (capable of <= 7 nm tech processes) to build their advanced fabs in Europe. TSMC has\had some plans about European fab but for the older processes (12-14 nm), I have not heard about announcements on building 5 nm fabs and lower in Europe. On the other hand, the deal would be a net harm for the Chinese semiconductor industry since SMIC would spend a lot of money on establishing an advanced fab even in JV with some European companies (which will take probably the same amount of time that the Chinese EUV is going to take), while the EU will restrict their exports to the Chinese entities. Since the EU regards China as an enemy, then there are zero reasons for SMIC\China to agree to such a deal.
 
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BlackWindMnt

Captain
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ansy1968 said:
@european_guy No problem bro I appreciated your view who are more knowledgeable on the ground BUT from the outside looking in ever since a Chinese private company bought KUKA, EU had tighten control. So maybe in non strategic car sector like Volvo they will more accommodating.

I feel IF China has achieved self sufficiency, EU will relent and may go further with JV. Cooperation means Two side had something to offer, so to make it happen China need to enhance its Industrial and Scientific base to match the European. It is hard politics and China know how to play the game.
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Why would China play ball when the EU is so hostile, it would be better to start JV with Russians to say like the 28nm level it will boost Russian capabilities while not giving away the high end marketshare they will probably erode from TSMC, Samsung and Intel.
 
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ansy1968

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@xypher @european_guy bro Hypothetically , will EU allow SMIC to build a FAB using only SMEE DUVL and other Chinese equipment with Chinese technician to operate them? will there be an uproar or they will be accommodated?
 
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xypher

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ansy1968 said:
I feel IF China has achieved self sufficiency, EU will relent and may go further with JV. Cooperation means Two side had something to offer, so to make it happen China need to enhance its Industrial and Scientific base to match the European. It is hard politics and China know how to play the game.
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And why would China want a JV with the EU if they achieve self-sufficiency? Why should China help their enemy when the EU will backstab them in a short time by again banning Chinese companies, supporting insurgencies, engaging in media propaganda, and practicing hostile rhetoric for domestic gains? I'd say as soon as China achieves chip self-sufficiency they should work in a similar manner to the EU & US - enforce a ban on purchasing & selling products manufactured using ASML equipment in China and prohibit selling rare earth extraction\refining equipment to the West to cripple their semiconductor industries.
 
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ansy1968

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Overbom said:
I envy you @ansy1968 and @xypher . You have a lot more patience than me in dealing with obviously unrealistic plans and then carefully explaining such things. In comparison, I am a grumpy person :D
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@Overbom bro I'll treat you dinner and have a beer...lol BUT brother he ask a legitimate and possible scenario since he lived in the region I like to know more so be nice and be happy...hahahaha
 
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