Chinese semiconductor industry

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weig2000

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antiterror13 said:
Probably quite hard to get to top 3 in 5 yrs .... but possible in late 2020s
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Off top of my head, SMIC is not very far from UMC revenue-wise, and is ranked 4th after TSMC, SAMSUNG, UMC currently. So it's not far-fetched if they grow faster than UMC, No 3 is achievable in a few years. 7nm and below in five years is bit more challenging because it will depend on if they can get EUV.
 
FriedButter

FriedButter

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foofy said:
SMIC production will double in 3 years.

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On February 11, Zhao Haijun, the joint CEO of SMIC, said at the performance briefing: "The Shanghai Lingang project has broken ground in early 2022, and the two projects in Beijing and Shenzhen are progressing steadily. It is expected to be put into production by the end of 2022. SMIC In 2021, the company will increase its monthly production capacity by 100,000 pieces, which is equivalent to 8 inches, and the planned production capacity increase in 2022 will be more than that in 2021. After the three new projects are fully operational, the company's total production capacity will be doubled."
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So if this translation is accurate. SMIC monthly capacity increase in 2022 will be doubled the increase in 2021. Tho the increase will probably not happen until Q4 2022 or Q1 2023.
 
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antiterror13

Brigadier
weig2000 said:
Off top of my head, SMIC is not very far from UMC revenue-wise, and is ranked 4th after TSMC, SAMSUNG, UMC currently. So it's not far-fetched if they grow faster than UMC, No 3 is achievable in a few years. 7nm and below in five years is bit more challenging because it will depend on if they can get EUV.
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I thought the top 3 are TSMC, Intel and Samsung
 
FriedButter

FriedButter

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foofy said:
SMIC production will double in 3 years.

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The chipmaker's monthly capacity jumped to 540,750 8-inch equivalent wafers in the first quarter from 520,750 8-inch equivalent wafers in the previous quarter, primarily driven by its capacity expansion during the first quarter, according to its financial report.
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In Q4 2020, 8 inch capacity is 520,750/month (471,000/month was shipped in Q4). Based on me guessing then that would means current and future 8 inch capacity is…

620,750/month for 2021 - 2022

+720,750month for 2022 - 2023

UMC is about ~790,000/capacity for 2022 in 8 inch wafers
 
FriedButter

FriedButter

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It does appear that China will need to build a crap ton more fab plants. Like seriously wtf would TSMC even be able to fill 100% of that demand either.

SMIC EARNINGS CALL (Not Transcript)

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TAIPEI -- China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Co. (SMIC) said it is not concerned about oversupply in the chip industry as it continues to expand production capacity, saying domestic demand will insulate it from any global shocks

"Maybe there will be oversupply for a certain chip production technology, but because of the strong demand for indigenous production, we can dodge the risks," Zhao told investors on Friday morning. "Our customers are closely supplying to electronics makers and system companies, and they want to have this regional supply chain, and they need production capacity in China."
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The biggest concern is this (also big growth opportunities). However, I am not sure just how much demand local Chinese companies is contributing to it.

“Our production capacity is still far from meeting even 10% of their demand," he added.
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According to Bloomberg report, local Chinese firms aren’t the only one looking for local suppliers and components
  • Industry is fragmenting as governments prioritize local supply

Customers are telling Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. they need to secure a certain amount of capacity within China itself because of concerns the industry could become more fragmented, disrupting inflows from abroad, co-Chief Executive Officer Zhao Haijun said. Companies in China, the world’s factory floor for everything from Apple Inc. iPhones to Volkswagen AGcars, have turned more and more to local component suppliers and assemblers.
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“What we can make here is less than 10% of what they need. They are worried,” Zhao told analysts on an earnings call.
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This would also help explain why the US is screeching over the phase 1 trade deal. Turns out local chips aren’t the only local thing companies including foreign ones are demanding.

but China is going to need a hell of a lot more capacity. Less than 10%. Wow is demand that severe. I can see why Huawei is making their own darn fabs with their money pile.

On a side note. Bloomberg article omitted the Co-CEO saying that SMIC will not face oversupply issues. Something that Nikkei article mentions. I see they are still pissed over the non-existent invisible apple chip.
 
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