Chinese semiconductor industry

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tokenanalyst

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For whatever reason, China just keeps on endlessly buying American semiconductor and semiconductor machinery (as evidenced by sky high company sales and sky high exports). US sanctions aren't deterring anyone from buying American products or designing out the United States. There just isn't a quality replacement, even years after the first totalizing sanctions
They are not endlessly buying, they are replacing quite fast and that is the problem for the Biden administration, that is why they are reluctant to increase sanctions. This senators are literally begging to increase sanctions to just one company. You don't think there is something that some people are viewing that these hawks don't.
 

tokenanalyst

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From Bloomberg:

Biden administration officials met last week to
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that restrict the sale of equipment to China’s largest chipmaker, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. Such a move would build on
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President Donald Trump imposed on SMIC last year.

The meeting ended without an immediate resolution, and that left hawks in Washington dissatisfied. “No update to the SMIC licensing policy is a major mistake,’’ Michael McCaul, the lead Republican of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a statement. “We cannot let the interests of one industry segment result in the Chinese military being able to make its own semiconductors.”

That “one industry segment” refers to U.S. companies that build equipment to produce chips. That group, led by Applied Materials Inc., Lam Research Corp. and KLA Corp., accounts for more than 40% of the global market for gear used to make advanced semiconductors.

The Trump administration figured that it could slow China down by withholding certain types of American machinery. There was an unintended consequence, according to executives at U.S. equipment makers. The export ban created an opportunity for foreign companies, including those in China, to fill a hole left by the Americans.

One apparent beneficiary of the U.S. policy is Tokyo Electron Ltd. The Japanese company got about 15% of its sales in fiscal 2018 from China. In the most recent financial year, it was 29%. The U.S. would need allies in Japan and Europe to implement similar bans for the strategy to be effective.

But even then, Chinese companies could figure out how to make the machinery themselves. Beijing-based Naura Techology Group. is on course to grow about 50% this year, according to estimates from analysts compiled by Bloomberg. That’s a strong growth rate for a company of any size and considerably faster than its U.S. rivals.

Executives from the U.S. companies argue that it would be safer to install their equipment in Chinese factories because the software could allow them to monitor what the chipmakers are doing. Otherwise, those facilities become a black box, they said, asking not to be identified discussing matters of national security.
 

tokenanalyst

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For whatever reason, China just keeps on endlessly buying American semiconductor and semiconductor machinery (as evidenced by sky high company sales and sky high exports). US sanctions aren't deterring anyone from buying American products or designing out the United States. There just isn't a quality replacement, even years after the first totalizing sanctions

US-China chip cold war? It's only helping the Middle Kingdom, silicon makers warn​

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And yes you are correct in one thing, Chinese companies would have preferred to buy from the U.S. instead of locally and before U.S sanctions they were quite happy doing so.
Now it had become very very risky to create a product dependent on an unreliable supplier and it is not their fault but is the fault of this group of political hawks who do not think before they act.
 

Overbom

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This is endless buying. This isn't replacing. Even with sanctions, US exports to China (and inherently, China's demand) increases dramatically at double digits per year. Some relectuance indeed. US companies just don't want to lose any sales, even if they won't be replaced because US companies report to shareholders.
Because Chinese companies have their hands full with fulfilling domestic orders and they need some time to make more production lines.

Late 2022 - Mid 2023 we are going to see a big increase in domestic IC tech + production capacity in China
 

tokenanalyst

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This is endless buying. This isn't replacing.
Have you taking into account the ICs imported by not Chinese companies? You know that ones that just manufacture their products there? Of course not.

At the end of the day when you have a sector that is growing faster in your own country than in most other countries in the world something they are replacing.1643748257476.png1643748345723.png

Beijing-based Naura Techology Group. is on course to grow about 50% this year, according to estimates from analysts compiled by Bloomberg. That’s a strong growth rate for a company of any size and considerably faster than its U.S. rivals.
 

manqiangrexue

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This is endless buying.
What does endless buying mean? Growth in purchases? That there are purchases? Does the US run an endless deficit with China? Those are finite numbers on the chart, which are not endless, you're so frothing at the mouth that the terms you make don't even make sense.
This isn't replacing.
Some are and some have not yet. To discern that, you cannot look at an aggregate data chart when there are already instances of American stuff being replaced. Also, even though the figures for US exports are growing, the figures of Chinese chips grow faster, apparently by over 30%, by the statistic you missed in the article I posted. That means that the US is taking a smaller slice of a bigger pie and replacement is happening.
Even with sanctions, US exports to China (and inherently, China's demand) increases dramatically at double digits per year. Some relectuance indeed.
Reluctance means long term trust; it doesn't mean to reduce one's business overnight. China may need some time to replace everything (by which time the US will become friendly and ask for sales), but there is no amount of time that would allow the US to find an alternate trade partner because China is the largest in the world.
US companies just don't want to lose any sales, even if they won't be replaced because US companies report to shareholders.
Yeah, greedy greedy. Suit themselves.
 
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