Chinese Hypersonic Developments (HGVs/HCMs)

Tirdent

Junior Member
Registered Member
@Tirdent since you are knowledgeable on Russian platforms and projects (guessing you're ethnically Russian?)

Ethnically speaking, I'm Anglo-Saxon in the literal sense ;)

My understanding is that Russia has fielded "Avangard" which is a long range delivery vehicle for (but limited to) nuclear warheads, riding on various ranged ballistic missiles where appropriate? The other HGV is "Zircon", an air breathing weapon (scramjet) that is multirole in nature with the core purpose of serving as an anti-ship/ anti-surface weapon. Being much smaller and versatile for purposes, it is no doubt air launchable or intended to be air launchable if not yet.

Largely correct. For the time being, the only confirmed delivery vehicles for Avangard are spare SS-19 missiles though. It seems likely that it will be deployed on other platforms in future however, for example the Sarmat heavy ICBM.

Regarding airbreathers, Tsirkon is likely to remain exclusively ship/submarine launched, *possibly* with a terrestrial version to follow, now that INF is dead. Not because it would be somehow unsuitable for airlaunch, this seems to be more a repetition of the division of work between design bureaux as seen with the navy/army 3M10 Granat & air force Kh-55 in the closing days of the Cold War. The modern air-droppable component would be GZUR, for which (unlike Tsirkon) we actually know what it will look like:

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Has Russia formally acknowledged Russian hypersonic wind tunnels? What sorts of specifications have they revealed?

Yup, lots of them!

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This document shows the situation as of 2008, so fails to capture the build-up in China since then - but at the time, fully 40% of all hypersonic tunnels considered in it were located in Russia!

Hypersonic windtunnels per se are actually an old hat, most countries building ballistic missiles or manned spacecraft indigenously will have such a capability to study reentry aerothermodynamics. It follows that the first such facilities date back to the early 1950s.

How would you consider the overall progress made by the major three countries in this field? Which nation currently leads it given what we know from publicly available information and state disclosures?

Hard to say, as you note there is a lack of information from the non-US players. Russia is relatively open about announcing tests and select performance specs, but notably secretive on pictures. Conversely, China has few qualms about publishing photos, yet keeps totally mum on testing and technical information (what we know about their test programme comes from US intelligence).

Inferring from what is publicly known, I'd say the US is typically underrated - their intercontinental HGV tests may have been unsuccessful until 2020, but then they were pursuing risky solutions. The HTV vehicles were apparently attempting to steer without aerodynamic controls by displacing the centre of gravity, whereas if published CGIs are any indication, Avangard is more conventional. OTOH, that presents the Russians with serious thermal protection challenges - that they've managed to make it work might indicate they currently hold an edge in this regard. If so, it did take them some 30 years of chipping away at the problem to get there:

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It's worth noting that even some of the tests Podvig somewhat disdainfully designates as failures might have returned more useful data than US tests prior to last year's success. HTV-1 & 2 were both lost less than two minutes into the endoatmospheric part of their flight!

China has only recently started testing an intercontinental HGV per US assessments, but of course was the first nation to field a shorter-range vehicle of this kind (DF-17). Also, as impressive as Avangard is, production is glacial - we're probably still in the single digits, two years after initial deployment.

As you say, the slow progress in the US is likely down to lack of necessity at least as much as lack of ability or lack of political will.
 
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Insignius

Junior Member
FOBS Fractional Bombardment System

Basically a hypersonic missile loaded on a orbital bus that doesnt leave orbit until deployment and thus has unlimited range and capability to come from directions you wouldnt believe.


If you surround China with ABM, China will respond with Orbital Bombardment weapons. This has been foretold but Washington with their Fukuyamaesk triumphalism just doesnt want to learn.
 

gadgetcool5

Senior Member
Registered Member
Sorry, but having nuclear weapons in space is a bad idea. First of all, this kind of thing is for talking about only, not actually using. Once you actually have to use something like this, your country is dead anyway. Secondly, a satellite can be shot down, destroyed, it can be hit by a meteor, or even worse, it can be hacked or commandeered. There is no way to prove that your communications are totally secure because that would require proving a negative. At that point, you are hoisted on your own petard. If China wants to improve its deterrent, increasing the number of conventional warheads is perfectly sufficient.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Sorry, but having nuclear weapons in space is a bad idea. First of all, this kind of thing is for talking about only, not actually using. Once you actually have to use something like this, your country is dead anyway. Secondly, a satellite can be shot down, destroyed, it can be hit by a meteor, or even worse, it can be hacked or commandeered. There is no way to prove that your communications are totally secure because that would require proving a negative. At that point, you are hoisted on your own petard. If China wants to improve its deterrent, increasing the number of conventional warheads is perfectly sufficient.

Not really. It's in orbit for minutes. The coordinates are locked on launch. There is no communication. None of the problems you say apply to it actually do.

Merely increasing the conventional deterrent is insufficient to account for possible changes in interceptor technology. It is plausible that one day a superpower adversary could expand its missile defense shield. This preemptively shuts that idea down, makes them less likely to even try, and increases the potency of all existing deterrence.
 

anzha

Captain
Registered Member
For those of us without FT access:

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As for treaty compliance, given the Soviet Union had a FOBS, that would either indicate the USSR was in violation (and was not called out by the USA) or they are not a treaty breaker.

One of the big problems with FOBS is any launch is now potentially a nuclear launch. This increases tensions and makes it far more likely for nations to assume hostile intent, whether present or not.

As for the USA's missile defenses, that's off topic here.
 

davidau

Senior Member
Registered Member
FOBS Fractional Bombardment System

Basically a hypersonic missile loaded on a orbital bus that doesnt leave orbit until deployment and thus has unlimited range and capability to come from directions you wouldnt believe.


If you surround China with ABM, China will respond with Orbital Bombardment weapons. This has been foretold but Washington with their Fukuyamaesk triumphalism just doesnt want to learn.
Any potential agressor should be warned.
 
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