Are you saying that supersonic anti-ship missiles like YJ-12 or P-800 are becoming obsolete?
That in the future we you should either have Hypersonic or Subsonic Stealth.
I guess for 052D and 055 you'll need a VLS version of AKF-98 to go with the YJ-21
I don't think that supersonic missiles will become obsolete. Though, the range of scenarios where supersonic missiles are more the useful/viable/preferred option are getting more limited/constrained.
Given the characteristics and limitations of supersonic missiles per my initial post - Having such missiles doing anti-ship and land-attack strike missions over greater distances (>1000 kilometers) will become less viable and attractive than hypersonic missiles and VLO subsonic missiles.
On the other hand, supersonic missiles could actually see greater avenue of usage for strike missions that are in the triple-digit kilometers of ranges (<1000 kilometers) against objective sensitive and time-sensitive targets within and around the 1IC. For instance, strike UCAVs (e.g. GJ-11, Jetank) and SSNs (or even SSK-Ns) can launch these missiles to strike integrated air defense targets that are 300-600 kilometers away in SEAD/DEAD missions in Taiwan and the Ryukyus, and/or in strike missions against enemy warships, naval bases and port facilities in the ECS and the Sea of Japan.
The key objective is for these missiles to be fast enough to shrink the enemy's response time in order to increase the chances of success of such strike missions, while also avoid consuming too much of the war chest unnecessarily.
With that being said, medium(-to-long?) range high-supersonic strike missiles like MAKO could be a workable way forward.
Honestly, I think its highly beneficial for the PLA to invest heavily in the second type, something like the LRASM. Easy to produce in vast quantities, Something which fits in the current VLS systems and can essentially replace all traditional anti-ship missiles. Low obserable, Low IR and electronic signature is genuinely underrated compared to hypersonics IMO. The mass production of these missiles is well suited to the kind of conflict that will occur and the manufacturing capabilities of China. They've proven to be very effective in the Ukraine war.
If anything, China should go with both.
Both types of missiles have their respective pros and cons, which must be adapted to accordingly.
Using different missile types for different types of strike missions can both:
- Avoid wasting high-end hypersonic missiles for low-value/non-critical targets, AND
- Avoid wasting too many VLO cruise missiles trying to mass-swarm against targets with peer-integrated defensive systems.
Plus, combining both missile types for certain types of strike missions (especially against enemy targets of critical significance that are exceptionally well-defended) enables achieving 1 + 1 > 2 effects/results for China's war effort.
